Winter Tripole; Cold AMO (Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation), during 2015-16? – Connection with Severe 1947? –
Could a Cold AMO Re-Activate Northern Blocking across Europe & the US during the coming Winter’s? “A Decline in Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature, increases the Risk of a Cold Winter??” Recently, the Atlantic has switched from a warm period occupied from the late 90′s to 2015 to 2016 – (characterized by above average Atlantic temperatures), to a cold period, likely to last until 2045-50. The previous warm AMO spell ended in the late 1930′s; followed by the severe winter of 1947 which was characterized by moderate solar activity (usually a pointer towards a mild winter). This is going against my recent blog’s “theories”; Low Solar Activity & the Little Ice Age.
Interestingly, during the early 1960′s a severe “drop” in the AMO temperature happened around the equally severe UK Winter of 1962-3. However, there are the typical anomalies & uncertainties regarding this natural oscillation:
As with all long range theories, they are certainly very interesting, although can not be relied upon; and will change in the future as ultimately more information is released. This certainly doesn’t mean that Winter 2015-16 is likely to be severe; only that the coming few winters during the “decline”, may have a sting on their tail. Solar Activity will also be hitting it’s minimums during the upcoming years; a combination of the 2 may set off a 62/63 style Winter before 2025, in fact confidence is increasing. As you can see, Solar Activity clearly is a significant driver of AMO conditions. Both 62/63 and 2009/2010 were characterized by the sharp fall off in both solar activity, and AMO temperature, happening close to these Baltic winters. With both Solar Activity and AMO forecast to “Minimum” in the coming 10-20 years, to values lower than the 50s-70s, we may be “on the edge” of further severe winters in the UK:
During the sharp “fall” in both solar activity and Atlantic sea temperatures; severe winter conditions occured in the UK during 2 winters in the first drop. The second occured around 16 years following the first. Solar Activity & the AMO are both forecast to decline rapidly during the coming 20-30 years. It started at around 2010, when that ferocious winter paralyzed much of Britain.
What is the AMO; further explanation.?
The AMO (Atlantic Multi Decadal Oscillation), switches on and off between warm and cold every 30 or so years, however this is not set – some AMO spells last as low as 20 years, some as high as 40. It is thought to affect winter conditions by either promoting or discouraging Northern Blocking (the key to cold & snowy weather). The natural variation of the AMO is certainly a huge influence in winter weather conditions, not just in the U.S but also in the United Kingdom/ Europe; both geographical regions are hugely influenced by the North Atlantic and mid Atlantic Oceans, and have the largest economic affects of Winter conditions throughout the globe. I have found that during a “decline” in Atlantic sea surface temperatures, or during the spell of “fall off”, it seems that the chance of a cold winter is increased, the same can be said during the very cold periods, however this is different for the U.S.
Possible Implications for Winter 2015-16.
The previous few winters have been a fair mix, 2010 was severe in the UK & US, 2011 & 2012 were fairly average, 2013 extremely stormy, 2014 average – however the last 2 have both been severe in the U.S. The fall off of solar activity and Atlantic temperatures may have “dire” winter complications; more intense of course for the U.S at the moment. When will it start to influence the UK? Both these factors influence Northern Blocking, which in turn weakens the Arctic cold, pushing it “South”, and giving the UK/Europe/US cold & snowy winter conditions ;). Certainly very interesting developments, and we may not be out of the woods in terms of severe conditions over the next 10-20 years, especially if the AMO continues to fall off & solar activity is predicted to fall off, at an incredible rate over the coming years. Please stay tuned for further updates and do check out my Winter forecast UK.