United States Winter 2017/2018 weather prediction, a bad winter?
Welcome to our US Winter 2017/18 weather prediction. To find out what the weather is likely to be in your location – read on. Winter 2016/17 was much milder than average as a whole with a snowy start to the winter. Due to a sharp fall in the Quassi Biennial Oscillation, a “January and February freeze” are entirely possible to start 2018. However some locations could see a “2014 repeat” this winter, and that one was a bad one, as the alignment of…
Last winter saw December the king of snow in terms of winter months, however much different seems likely this time round. This was largely due to a westerly QBO which prevented any severe cold/northern blocking from developing later in the months. However this year sees almost a reversed pattern. The QBO will be in it’s negative easterly phase, which promotes northern blocking. Long range forecasting is not an exact forecast – and changes are likely to be made as we approach the winter season.
El Nino for Winter 2017/2018, the prediction:
A weak El Nino / modoki El Nino is forecast for the winter of 2017/18. For the US this generally equates to more in the way of blocking over the central areas meaning that unlike last winter in which the central portion of the US saw the most severe conditions, the worst of it will be further east towards the east coast, especially east of the great lakes.
Solar Activity is one of the main factors needed to predict winter weather. It’s affects are mainly felt as far as either strengthening or weakening of the polar jet stream during the winter months. Each year since 2014, solar activity has decreased by around 15% a year. For 2017/18 solar activity will be at “very low” designated levels. Which typically would lead us to forecast a negative NAO, however we are not yet at the optimal part of the solar cycle for ripe severe winter weather, that wont be until 2019. However this set up, combined with an easterly QBO should allow us to experience some sharp cold spots, particularly further east across the US during the early part of 2018.
Long Range Model Prediction for Winter 2017/2018.
When forecasting long range, or even preliminary updates, many factors need to be taken into account and one factor alone is not enough to sway the forecast a particular way. This year, a modoki El Nino and negative, easterly QBO are ripe for a colder than average winter in the US. Similar set ups pose winter 2014/15 and winter 2009/10. Which were both snowy winters for much of the states. This year round similar is forecast. However as mentioned, more factors need to be taken into account before we issue a forecast. The CFS, which we can not discount, has forecast a significantly warmer than average winter for the US for 2017. Other stratospheric factors which the CFS pick up on are coming into play here such as the MJO which are swaying it in this warm direction. We must wait until August 2017 before issuing a final forecast for the Winter of 2018 for the United States. Please stay tuned to this prediction.
Early thoughts for Winter 2017/18: Temperature: higher chance of near normal temperatures with deepest cold in the far East and far NW.
Snowfall: another season of lower than average snowfall is a probability.
Most severe conditions of the winter: first month of 2018.
Please note these are preliminary predictions and will be updated in the coming months.