U.S WINTER 2017/2018 Preliminary Forecast

United States Winter 2017/2018 weather prediction, a bad winter?

Welcome to our US Winter 2017/18 weather prediction. To find out what the weather is likely to be in your location – read on. Winter 2016/17 was much milder than average as a whole with a snowy start to the winter. Due to a sharp fall in the Quassi Biennial Oscillation, a “January and February freeze” are entirely possible to start 2018. However some locations could see a “2014 repeat” this winter, and that one was a bad one, as the alignment of…

US Winter 2017-18 outlook El Nino PDO Solar and Sea surface temperature analysis for 2018

Last winter saw December the king of snow in terms of winter months, however much different seems likely this time round. This was largely due to a westerly QBO which prevented any severe cold/northern blocking from developing later in the months. However this year sees almost a reversed pattern. The QBO will be in it’s negative easterly phase, which promotes northern blocking. Long range forecasting is not an exact forecast – and changes are likely to be made as we approach the winter season. 

El Nino for Winter 2017/2018, the prediction:

A weak El Nino / modoki El Nino is forecast for the winter of 2017/18. For the US this generally equates to more in the way of blocking over the central areas meaning that unlike last winter in which the central portion of the US saw the most severe conditions, the worst of it will be further east towards the east coast, especially east of the great lakes. 

A modoki / weak El Nino is likely for winter 2017/2018, sharpening the Pacific temperature gradient and leading to a strengthened westerly flow.

A modoki / weak El Nino is featured in this preliminary for winter 2017/2018, sharpening the Pacific temperature gradient and leading to a strengthened westerly flow.

Solar Activity.

Solar Activity is one of the main factors needed to predict winter weather. It’s affects are mainly felt as far as either strengthening or weakening of the polar jet stream during the winter months. Each year since 2014, solar activity has decreased by around 15% a year. For 2017/18 solar activity will be at “very low” designated levels. Which typically would lead us to forecast a negative NAO, however we are not yet at the optimal part of the solar cycle for ripe severe winter weather, that wont be until 2019. However this set up, combined with an easterly QBO should allow us to experience some sharp cold spots, particularly further east across the US during the early part of 2018.

Long Range Model Prediction for Winter 2017/2018.

When forecasting long range, or even preliminary updates, many factors need to be taken into account and one factor alone is not enough to sway the forecast a particular way. This year, a modoki El Nino and negative, easterly QBO are ripe for a colder than average winter in the US. Similar set ups pose winter 2014/15 and winter 2009/10. Which were both snowy winters for much of the states. This year round similar is forecast. However as mentioned, more factors need to be taken into account before we issue a forecast. The CFS, which we can not discount, has forecast a significantly warmer than average winter for the US for 2017. Other stratospheric factors which the CFS pick up on are coming into play here such as the MJO which are swaying it in this warm direction. We must wait until August 2017 before issuing a final forecast for the Winter of 2018 for the United States. Please stay tuned to this prediction.

Early thoughts for Winter 2017/18: Temperature: higher chance of near normal temperatures with deepest cold in the far East and far NW.

Snowfall: another season of lower than average snowfall is a probability.

Most severe conditions of the winter: first month of 2018.

Please note these are preliminary predictions and will be updated in the coming months.

Early prediction for the projected weather pattern for 2018 Winter. - please note this is subject to change over the coming months.

Early prediction for the projected weather pattern for 2018 U.S Winter. – please note this is subject to change over the coming months.

30 Responses so far.

  1. Matt says:

    Great information (from what I could understand. Ha!) for what we have to work with so far. I, like Sharon, am concerned with southern California as we, unlike the East Coast, prefer our winters cold and wet so our local snow resorts can maintain a solid base layer. Last season saw an odd, late shift that caused it to remain somewhat wet but unseasonably warm, making local snow conditions pretty awful.
    If I’m reading your analysis and the data correctly, it would seem this year is to follow that same trend? Any clarification would be great. Thanks for your time!
    -mC

  2. Tottie says:

    Hello! I like in Oklahoma just south of oklahoma city. We have had a cooler summer than I am used to, and it has been great! Would it be safe to say our winter here will be more wet and cold, and maybe we will get an awesome blizzard?

    • Hi Tottie.
      I’m afraid Winter 2013/2014 is a Little far out to pick out Specific Details of Blizzard & Snow Events. If Oaklahoma Experienced a Cold & Wet Winter, Snow Events may be more Vigorous than a Mild & Wet Winter, on Average :).

  3. Tom says:

    http://theweathernerd.wordpress.com/2012/12/04/experimental-nino3-4-forecast-to-november-2015/
    I agree – I’ve been saying El Nino since December 2012, when I started looking at developing my own system for modelling Nino3.4 SST anomalies.

  4. Sharon says:

    Like Tom and Oklahoma, California has been having cooler than normal summer of which I love.
    The part of Los Angeles I live is a mile from the beach and we been running in the low 70′s this summer where last year we ran in the low to mid 80′s.
    There something going on when London is hotter than Los Angeles.
    Again I hope to God we get an el nino and not have to do with the drought we’ve been having the past few years. And make that a moderate El Nino.
    What is going on?

    • Hi Sharon, I’m not sure there’s much Going On which relates to Los Angeles being Cooler than London. It may* be a direct impact of Pressure, ie Low Pressure over the States, which builds a Week Jet off the Eastern Seaboard, thus allowing a Transient ridge to form across the British Isles.

  5. Tom says:

    Hi when are you going to post the next update? Thanks, Tom

  6. Ernie says:

    Hey Kasim,
    Does your forecast mean a colder winter for Northeast Fl and Southeast Ga. this year ?

  7. Tay says:

    ya i wont hold my breath till the time comes cuz im sure just like last yr something will change and i figure i check now jus to see where we at.

  8. hashim says:

    i live in the piedmont region in north Carolina what kind of a winter will we have here, im hopin for a bit warmer winter with more snow

  9. hashim says:

    thanx

  10. Rudi says:

    What do you think of the lake effect snow for this winter? I live in upstate NY near Syracuse and I am wondering if we will get above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the upcoming winter.

  11. Angie says:

    I live in Manassas, VA close to the Washington, DC area and wanted what the outlook is for snow?

  12. John says:

    Good post man. Everyone, if you get a chance to come check out my site I have recently released my preliminary winter outlook

    Rapidweather.blogspot.com

  13. Mark says:

    I’ve done study on climate for more years than will admit and we are back in a global cooling phase.

    I really like the forecasts on here. A lot of work has gone into them and I think the young man should become a meteorologist. He has the talent for it and seems to know what he’s doing and much of that is a gift in that you either have it or not. Everyone has a gift and some have it for this area.

    I’ll be checking back for updates on the forecast and thanks for posting the updates.

    Mark,

  14. Kellie says:

    I live in Albuquerque, NM and from what I can tell, we may have a shot at some El Nino weather??? I know its a little early to tell but any info on NM would do wonders. Thanks!

  15. Heatblizzard says:

    Oops it was you’re gas! *covers nose*……….Never mind. (side steps from the stage)

  16. Max says:

    Will eastern kansas and western missouri (Kansas City) and surrounding areas get an above average snow season? Im hoping i can make some money by snow shoveling.

  17. Shawn says:

    Hello Kasim! I know it currently looks like we are supposed to have a strong El Nino. We had only a few small snowfall events last year and just some very cold temps every now and then. I am a weather enthusiast! I am a big fan when it comes to snow and cold temperatures.

    Is it possible for it to be cold and snowy in Missouri during an El Nino depending on other factors? Because I would love to have an epic cold/snowy one! Can the polar vortex cold air move over Missouri even during an El Nino?

    • Kasmin2 :) says:

      During a Strong El Nino the pattern you described is possible – and it looks like you have a more favorable chance of seeing cold/ snow outbreaks during this next winter. However, I wouldn’t hold you’re breath this early – please come back for future updates as the prediction is likely to change a little between now & then.

  18. Nadine says:

    Hi Mark- you throw me where you use ” climate line changes…”. Is there a different way you can say that? I see no climate change there, either now or in the future. Thank you.

  19. Nadine says:

    One problem though, at the very least – the 2017-2018 polar ice is at an all-time low. Polar bears are drowning as they cannot swim the many miles between the ice floes which had been much larger and closer before.

  20. Kasmin2 :) says:

    Aerosols will likely have a huge impact this year – it will block out the sun’s rays leading to probably stronger polar & severe cold shots for the East, however it will also limit convection during some snow storms. The wild fires have to be due to the ridge in the Mid West, causing some dry conditions. It is sadly likely to remain this way for the predictable future :(.

  21. Kasmin2 :) says:

    Welcome to our Winter 2017-18 U.S Preliminary forecast. This year sees a new set up developing in that similar to 2014 we have a strong easterly PDO which generally supports northern blocking that produces cold weather in the US. However the Pacific is still leaning towards a mild winter. The battle ground between the two could mean a few rather interesting blizzard potentials this winter.

  22. Becky says:

    Dear santa,

    All I want for Christmas is lots and lots of snow for kansas city.
    Thx, Becky

Leave a Reply to Nadine Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>