U.S WINTER 2015/2016 Weather Prediction; *Brutal Snow & Cold Due to El Nino. | KasimsWeatherWatcher.com
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U.S WINTER 2015/2016 Weather Prediction; *Brutal Snow & Cold Due to El Nino.

KasimsWeather United States.

KasimsWeatherWatchers 2015/16 US Prediction.

<26.06.15>Welcome to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s US Winter 2015-2016 Weather Forecast: Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East yet Again, to Read why find out more Below. To view my UK & Europe UK Winter 2016 Prediction, Click Here. Things are looking VERY Interesting this year, a combo of low solar activity & a very strong El Nino could develop an unforgiving North Eastern snow set up for the US, and frequent Northern Blocking for the other side of the Atlantic.  

Seasonal Models Are Unleashing the Ice For Winter 2015/2016:

Increasingly Severe Snow / Brutal Set up Hinted by the CFS For Winter 2015/2016.

The CFS Weather Model Forecasts a Brutal Winter for the US Again, with Below Average Temperatures for 2015/2016.

Severely Cold Conditions are also Predicted by the Jamstech IOD long range model. As you can see the deep blue color reflects the below average temperatures, likely to be joined by a hellish amount of snow yet again. Read on for further information + detail.

An El Nino (Warm Pacific), Promotes a Ridge in Alaska, Forcing Severe Cold & Snow South During Winter Across Central & Eastern Areas.

An El Nino (Warm Pacific), promotes a ridge in Alaska, forcing severe Cold & Snow South During 2015/2016 Across Central & Eastern Areas. – The JMA Prediction Is “Bang in Line” with This.

Welcome to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s detailed ENSO, Solar Activity, Sea Surface Temperature & Model 2015/16 Update; severe conditions likely in the North East U.S due to El Nino.

Overview of the Forecast & Why I’m forecasting a Severe One Again for Winter 2015/2016:

The upcoming intense El Nino & high sea surface temperatures are forecast to drive cold and at times very snowy weather into the North East of the U.S during the season ahead; especially in the North East. Solar activity will increase risk of severe snow & high amounts of snowfall across the North East of the US, especially later on in the season by declining at high rates causing a drop in the NAO. The graphic below shows how solar activity will affect U.S conditions during the 2015-2016 season, sudden stratospheric warming can occur during December, January & February:

Low Solar Activity aids the production of High Pressure systems around Alaska during Winter. Low Solar activity is forecast during the coming Winter, leading us to forecast a likely cold and even brutally cold winter in the North East yet again...

Low Solar Activity aids the production of High Pressure systems around Alaska . Low Solar activity is predicted during Winter, leading to a likely cold and even brutally cold in the North East US yet again, affecting Pennsylvania with these storms yet again.

Detailed Forecast; El Nino, NAO, Arctic Sea Ice, Solar Activity & how these will affect the 2015/2016 Winter:

Eastern US (Cold), & Western US (near normal – Warm).

El Nino is a spell of warm waters in the Pacific and usually pushes Warm air into California, with colder temperatures & high snow across the East towards New York & even as far South as Florida. These are the main factors influencing weather here, now, further updates will be released further as we edge closer towards Christmas, stay tuned for further updates. 

 In the mood for some snow? Read on.

 

CFS Model Forecasts:

US, Winter 2015/2016 may be Severely Cold, Recent Predictions Suggest, but milder for the North West:

The CFS produces some fairly alarming temperature maps, especially in Southern areas. Years 2013-14 & 2014-15 have been dominated by a bitingly cold & severe North Easterly wind across most of the United States, feeding in exceptionally severe conditions for this part of the globe. An El Nino would enforce the chance of this recurring, bringing cold & snowy flows across the East of the states in particular. What kind of El Nino is predicted for the season ahead? Various long range charts are interestingly all going for a strong El Nino.

The Climate Model System (Shortened to CFS) from NOAA, Thinks of a Very Strong El Nino, increasing the risk of Snow for the East:

This Forecast Produced by NOAA For Winter 2015-2016, shows a Strong El Nino  Pattern during Winter 2015-2016.

This Forecast Produced by NOAA, shows a Strong El Nino Pattern for the North West Winter.

What is the reliability of the CFS; any accuracy? During the early stages of the year, ENSO predictions have low accuracy, however accuracy during this time of the year is quite good. Giving a high confidence of at least a moderate to marginally strong El Nino; bringing no doubt severe outbreaks of snow etc, for the North East.

 

El Nino & How it will Affect Winter Weather in the US in the East and West + Mid Atlantic Forecast (Explanation).

El Nino is when the usually conspiring & strong trade winds push warmer waters away from the Pacific weaken, and warm water is allowed to sink East towards Peru, heating up the Pacific. El Nino is not a “rare” event. ENSO (the Oscillation between a cold and warm Central Pacific), is one of the main or most influential impacting factors when forecasting winter conditions for much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially the US. Warmer than average waters feed convection and snowfall amounts increase in the North pacific and Pacific North West. Promoting low pressure, this results in Southerly winds across California and Southern areas of the US, meaning warm and wet from Central areas and towards Florida.

 The following graphic demonstrates U.S. pressure patterns as a result of an El Nino:

El Nino Outlook.

El Nino Promote's Severe Winter conditions across the North East of the US.

El Nino will be “Super” or very strong later this year, promoting the “North Easter” event. (Low pressure bringing cold & snowy conditions in the North East of the US).

Lower Solar Activity will be “very low” into 2016; again a pointer towards cold “shots” being more likely for the North East out of Canada, due to a Polar Jet Stream forced South

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), is not the only factor present. There are many slices of the cake, or ingredients of the cake, such as Chocolate and frost (sorry for increasing your appetite ;), that go into the 2015-2016 prediction. For example, here at KasimsWeatherWatcher we closely monitor solar activity, as the “twists and turns”, will help us forecast the likely shape of flow of cold air across the states. 2015-16 would be the third year in a row of severe snow storms & harsh conditions across the North East. This would inevitably lead to cool, wet and snowy conditions in the NE, whilst in the SW drier, warmer and more settled conditions would be experienced, however at times very icy in Central regions. Here’s a graphic as to how low solar activity affects the typical U.S Winter pattern and may do into 2016. Increasing the risk of severe conditions leaking South:

Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Solar Activity Low to Create Severe Winter 2015/2016.

Low Solar Activity aids the production of High Pressure systems around Alaska during Winter. Low Solar activity is forecast during the coming Winter, leading us to forecast a likely cold and even brutally cold winter in the North East yet again...

Issue 1: Winter 2015-2016 Forecast US (stratospheric influence)

 Solar Activity; Very Low, could this lead to a negative NAO (cold for NE)?

Now, moving on: as you can see from the Chart below, interestingly solar activity is going to hang around “50 sun spots” on the solar apparent disk. This isn’t incredibly low, like experienced in 2009-2010, which brought severe cold to Europe to. However, it is low enough to increase the risk of Sudden Stratospheric warming & cold severely snowy weather into the North East downwelling into Central states & mid planes, bringing another extremely bitter forecast during 2015-2016. However, exactly how solar activity will fluctuate which is influential on warming events, is very uncertain. Although, this combination of a Strong El Nino & low solar activity would lead to an incredibly rough ride in the North East of the states.

By late 2015, we are forecast to be very low solar activity, this would have huge impacts for Winter.

Solar Prediction for 2015-2016; low solar activity. Impacts on the Winter season would be large, especially combined with a Strong El Nino.

Solar Prediction; low solar activity. Impacts on the season would be large, especially combined with a Strong 2016 El Nino.

 

 Winter 2015-2016; Cooler, Wetter, Snowier due to Super El Nino & Declining Solar Activity away from the North West.

Final Outlook + Conclusion:

& How things are still to change (Accuracy is Moderate, however previous forecasts have had high accuracy ( for example 2013/2014).

Extended range for 2015-2016 is very uncertain due to how the dynamic atmosphere can not be explained in words. Outlook’s for more than a few weeks out in general is a mind boggling mine field of weather uncertainties, unknows, weak links & uncharted snow realms. Now, for the North West in general, I think this season may be the mildest & driest here for more areas.

Note: Final forecast will zoom in on Ohio, New York, Tennesse, California & Carolina snow predictions & many more.

I would like to reiterate that these updates from Kasim are mainly for experimental reasons. During of 2015-2016, we will have a strong El Nino, up to 3C above average. The El Nino will be modoki, so stronger across Central parts of the Pacific. A modoki has a Higher Correlation to cold, severe patterns for the US, again especially in the East. Don’t worry those of you in the West, I have more to come for you folks. Winter 2016 likely conditions by judging current factors:

Colder than Average conditions for the North East, with a high risk of severe snow & cold around Newfoundland, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania.

The classic event of a North Easter, which is a sharp area of low pressure affecting the NE during the Winter months; would likely bring large snow events to West Virginia, and even spreading at times similar events to Indiana / Ohio.

Large amounts of uncertainties for Southern areas, due to uncertainty of other factors & how these will influence the “pressure pattern”. For example, if the El Nino headed South, Arkansas & Carolina could experience some severe conditions. Similarly, if the El Nino was further North, Colorado / Nebraska could be in for it & PA as well (in terms of severe conditions).

How these factors atmospherically reveal during Autumn and of course how these impact the set up, will largely impact how things are forecast, especially for Central and Southern States. Thank you very much for reading KasimsWeatherWatcher’s 2015/2016 preliminary prediction, please stay tuned for further forecasts. Another important statement to make, is that Missouri & Delaware are on the “brink” of a wave of very cold air from the far North West during the early December period, including states around this area, especially if the Super El Nino surfaces.

Extremely warmer than average Arctic for 2015-2016!.

 Current thoughts state that temperatures here will continue to rise over the coming years. By 2028, most of the Arctic Sea Ice could be mostly melted. Of course, early long range forecasts to that range (more than 10 years), are incredibly uncertain. 

It wouldn’t be valid to say that a lower volume of Arctic sea ice causes milder weather apart from perhaps Summer months; as there is no direct physical link between temperatures at 2 meters above sea level in the Arctic and temperatures further South ie Texas. Below is the current map of Arctic temperatures; very high. Your Daily United States winter Forecast Updates will continue as we head closer towards the 2015-2016 season for the E and North West, which continues to look potentially severe, however more detailed predictions will be available in August…

Extremely high temperatures around the Arctic will decrease Ice volumes; perhaps leading to increase Northern Blocking & negative NAO conditions for the Winter ahead.

Extremely high temperatures around the Arctic will decrease Ice volumes; perhaps leading to increase Northern Blocking & negative NAO conditions for The Forecast for the 2015-16 Winter.

 

37 Responses so far.

  1. Matt says:

    Great information (from what I could understand. Ha!) for what we have to work with so far. I, like Sharon, am concerned with southern California as we, unlike the East Coast, prefer our winters cold and wet so our local snow resorts can maintain a solid base layer. Last season saw an odd, late shift that caused it to remain somewhat wet but unseasonably warm, making local snow conditions pretty awful.
    If I’m reading your analysis and the data correctly, it would seem this year is to follow that same trend? Any clarification would be great. Thanks for your time!
    -mC

    • Hi Matt!
      The current indication remains for the Coolest of US Winter 2013/14 Weather to be across the more Eastern & NE States areas with a Polar Low. – However Current guidance is Very Uncertain, if* it came off we could be Looking at a similar situation to last year in the Western US with Higher Pressure. :).

  2. Tottie says:

    Hello! I like in Oklahoma just south of oklahoma city. We have had a cooler summer than I am used to, and it has been great! Would it be safe to say our winter here will be more wet and cold, and maybe we will get an awesome blizzard?

    • Hi Tottie.
      I’m afraid Winter 2013/2014 is a Little far out to pick out Specific Details of Blizzard & Snow Events. If Oaklahoma Experienced a Cold & Wet Winter, Snow Events may be more Vigorous than a Mild & Wet Winter, on Average :).

  3. Tom says:

    http://theweathernerd.wordpress.com/2012/12/04/experimental-nino3-4-forecast-to-november-2015/
    I agree – I’ve been saying El Nino since December 2012, when I started looking at developing my own system for modelling Nino3.4 SST anomalies.

  4. Sharon says:

    Like Tom and Oklahoma, California has been having cooler than normal summer of which I love.
    The part of Los Angeles I live is a mile from the beach and we been running in the low 70′s this summer where last year we ran in the low to mid 80′s.
    There something going on when London is hotter than Los Angeles.
    Again I hope to God we get an el nino and not have to do with the drought we’ve been having the past few years. And make that a moderate El Nino.
    What is going on?

    • Hi Sharon, I’m not sure there’s much Going On which relates to Los Angeles being Cooler than London. It may* be a direct impact of Pressure, ie Low Pressure over the States, which builds a Week Jet off the Eastern Seaboard, thus allowing a Transient ridge to form across the British Isles.

  5. Tom says:

    Hi when are you going to post the next update? Thanks, Tom

  6. Ernie says:

    Hey Kasim,
    Does your forecast mean a colder winter for Northeast Fl and Southeast Ga. this year ?

  7. Tay says:

    ya i wont hold my breath till the time comes cuz im sure just like last yr something will change and i figure i check now jus to see where we at.

  8. hashim says:

    i live in the piedmont region in north Carolina what kind of a winter will we have here, im hopin for a bit warmer winter with more snow

  9. hashim says:

    thanx

  10. Rudi says:

    What do you think of the lake effect snow for this winter? I live in upstate NY near Syracuse and I am wondering if we will get above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the upcoming winter.

  11. Angie says:

    I live in Manassas, VA close to the Washington, DC area and wanted what the outlook is for snow?

  12. John says:

    Good post man. Everyone, if you get a chance to come check out my site I have recently released my preliminary winter outlook

    Rapidweather.blogspot.com

  13. Mark says:

    I’ve done study on climate for more years than will admit and we are back in a global cooling phase.

    I really like the forecasts on here. A lot of work has gone into them and I think the young man should become a meteorologist. He has the talent for it and seems to know what he’s doing and much of that is a gift in that you either have it or not. Everyone has a gift and some have it for this area.

    I’ll be checking back for updates on the forecast and thanks for posting the updates.

    Mark,

  14. Mark says:

    I expect a very cold winter to come especially in the central and Eastern US and Western Europe with hard freezes several times well down into FL. Even Atlanta should get some above average snows and just to the north where the climate line changes at Dalton, GA, from that area northward is going to get cold and stay cold. This means from TN to Canada with good amounts of snow but CPC has it dry over TN and that is just not going to happen so I’ll stick to this website for the updates and the forecaster gets more info and updates throughout fall season.

    Great website and will tell friends if they want weather forecasts to visit here to see good ones.

    Mark aka the original theweathernut,

    • Thank you Mark. Just viewed your website @ http://www.galacticcastaways.com/ ,Great site, and look forward to reading your Works, looks very interesting. I’m going to be releasing a new Update on this Page during the early part of September which will cover the forecast in much more Detail ie snow forecast & temperature detail for State specific regions. Excellent Website, thank you for your Comments and Good luck for the Future! :), Kasim.

  15. Tim Dantoni says:

    The current pattern we are in has not really changed since late winter. The southwest US has baked, Southeast very wet, the Midwest, Eastern US cooler then norm, with brief hot spells, followed by cool downs. The current pattern reminds me of the 1976 summer,with the Artic temperatures way below normal, sea ice the highest in the last ten years, this could be a very early start to winter east of the Mississippi. Some things need to change, like a weak el-nino, positive PNA. I like were we are at, there is something in the air thats tellimg me we are in for one heck of a winter. Tim Dantoni

  16. Kellie says:

    I live in Albuquerque, NM and from what I can tell, we may have a shot at some El Nino weather??? I know its a little early to tell but any info on NM would do wonders. Thanks!

  17. Tim Dantoni says:

    At this time any one predicting a weak el-nino for the winter of 2013-2014,sees some thing that I do not. Do not under estimate the Pacific when you live in the Mid Atlantic, there are so many things that correlate to good winters in the US, El-nino, La-Nino are just one of many key elements that go into making a winter forecast. I’m sticking with a more front sided winter for most locations East of the Mississippi. Predicting a very cold December, with above normal snow fall in the East. Any one trying to do a forecast for this winter right now is either real lucky, or real real good. Tim Dantoni

  18. Heatblizzard says:

    There’s another guy with a large blog up in Seattle Washington that talks more about Climate patterns then Mark Nelson does and even came up with a *Seattle Excitement Index* SEI as Cliff Mass calls it.

    He rates it like this. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-most-boring-winter-in-seattle.html

    Hereis one of his key posts.

    SWEI is calculated over the core of Seattle’s winter (Nov. 15-Feb 15) and is the sum of several components parts:

    (1) The number of days the temperature exceed 60F or drops below 25F.
    (2) The number of days with two inches or more of precipitation.
    (3) The number of days with sustained winds of 30 kt or more.
    (4) The number of months with more than 1 inch of snowfall.

    All inputs are from Seattle Tacoma Airport. I should note there are rigorous reasons for each of the above criteria. For example, many official groups (like this National Weather Service site) consider that hard freezes occur below 25F. Plants die. Local meteorologists note that wind damage often begins when sustained winds hit 30 kt or more. And local mayors confirm that even 1 inch over a month brings tension, excitement, and danger to local roadways. Folks, this is rigorous science.

    Here is his year rankings for Seattle Washington the far north! This winter is the most boring and uneventful based on the SWEI index described above. Actually, we are tied for most boring with 1963-1964. Specifically, 2012-13 and 1963-1964 had the lowest values of the SWEI index.

    Only old-timers who can remember back nearly FIFTY YEARS can wax nostalgic about such a boring winter. For the quantitative among you, here are the ranks of the top boring years (a lot of ties)

    19631115-19640215 1
    20121115-20130215 1
    20001115-20010215 2
    20011115-20020215 2
    20021115-20030215 2
    19601115-19610215 3
    19751115-19760215 3
    19821115-19830215 3
    19911115-19920215 3
    19971115-19980215 3
    19991115-20000215 3

    The most excitement Cliff Mass had was an extended period of low fog and 1 high tide event due to an astronomical feature and a medium low pressure. Whoopie! :(

  19. Max says:

    Will eastern kansas and western missouri (Kansas City) and surrounding areas get an above average snow season? Im hoping i can make some money by snow shoveling.

  20. Just Me says:

    Whats the winter looking like in eastern kentucky? Im hoping for another snowy one!

  21. Veronica says:

    Hello! Can you be more specific on Oklahoma winter please. Southern Oklahoma doesn’t necessarily get the same weather as Northern Oklahoma. So do you think that maybe you could be more specific about what you think the winter might look like for Tulsa and Okmulgee? Thank you.

  22. Heather black says:

    What are the temps looking like for michigan eastern upper peninsula this winter? It was awful last winter and I’m hoping for just a little warmer.

  23. Mike Armando says:

    Usually El Nino brings milder winters for the east coast like it did in the 1990′s. What is the difference this time for the upcoming 2015/2016 winter season that it will be cold and snowy. I live in Rocky Point, Long Island, NY and the last two winters were very brutal with lots of snow.

  24. Jeffrey Brown says:

    Keep in mind ENSO is in La Nada conditions between -0.5 to +0.5 C. Week El Nino begins at >+0.05 C.

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