<07.07.15> Welcometo THIS YEARS KasimsWeatherWatcher’s Latest US Winter 2015-2016 Weather Forecast: Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East & Mid East Coast yet Again, to Read why find out more Below. To view my UK & Europe UK Winter 2016 Prediction, Click Here. Things are looking VERY Interesting this year, a combo of low solar activity & a very strong El Nino could develop an unforgiving North Eastern snow set up for the US, and frequent Northern Blocking for the other side of the Atlantic. Seasonal Models Are Unleashing the Perpetual Ice Storm For Winter 2015/2016, especially in the Highlighted Area, here is KasimsWeatherWatcher’s PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW, the word “Brutal” & “Cold” Crops Up a LOT:
Climate Forecasting System (CFS) long range, Also Predicts Extreme Conditions across Eastern Areas, with a Milder Season for the Mid West:
Severely Cold Conditions (At least for a Wide geographical Area) are Interestingly also Predicted by the Jamstech IOD long range model. As you can see the deep blue color reflects the below average temperatures, likely to be joined by a hellish amount of snow yet again. Read on for further information + detail into your Winter Forecast.
THIS IS WHAT AN EL NINO PATTERN WOULD YIELD DURING A REGULAR SNOW YEAR:
Welcome to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s detailed ENSO, Solar Activity, Sea Surface Temperature & Model 2015/16 Update; severe conditions likely in the North East U.S due to El Nino. Overview of the Forecast & Why I’m forecasting a Severe One Again for Winter 2015/2016: The upcoming intense El Nino & high sea surface temperatures are forecast to drive cold and at times very snowy weather into the North East of the U.S during the season ahead; especially in the North East. Solar activity will increase risk of severe snow & high amounts of snowfall across the North East of the US, especially later on in the season by declining at high rates causing a drop in the NAO. The graphic below shows how solar activity will affect U.S conditions during the 2015-2016 season, sudden stratospheric warming can occur during December, January & February:
Detailed Forecast; El Nino, NAO, Arctic Sea Ice, Solar Activity & how these will affect the 2015/2016 Winter:
Eastern US (Cold), & Western US (near normal – Warm).
El Nino is a spell of warm waters in the Pacific and usually pushes Warm air into California, with colder temperatures & high snow across the East towards New York & even as far South as Florida. These are the main factors influencing weather here, now, further updates will be released further as we edge closer towards Christmas, stay tuned for further updates. In the mood for some snow? Read on. CFS Model Forecasts:
US, Winter 2015/2016 may be Severely Cold, Recent Predictions Suggest, but milder for the North West:
The CFS produces some fairly alarming temperature maps, especially in Southern areas. Years 2013-14 & 2014-15 have been dominated by a bitingly cold & severe North Easterly wind across most of the United States, feeding in exceptionally severe conditions for this part of the globe. An El Nino would enforce the chance of this recurring, bringing cold & snowy flows across the East of the states in particular. What kind of El Nino is predicted for the season ahead? Various long range charts are interestingly all going for a strong El Nino. The Climate Model System (Shortened to CFS) from NOAA, Thinks of a Very Strong El Nino, increasing the risk of Snow for the East:
What is the reliability of the CFS; any accuracy? During the early stages of the year, ENSO predictions have low accuracy, however accuracy during this time of the year is quite good. Giving a high confidence of at least a moderate to marginally strong El Nino; bringing no doubt severe outbreaks of snow etc, for the North East.
El Nino & How it will Affect Winter Weather in the US in the East and West + Mid Atlantic Forecast (Explanation).
El Nino is when the usually conspiring & strong trade winds push warmer waters away from the Pacific weaken, and warm water is allowed to sink East towards Peru, heating up the Pacific. El Nino is not a “rare” event. ENSO (the Oscillation between a cold and warm Central Pacific), is one of the main or most influential impacting factors when forecasting winter conditions for much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially the US. Warmer than average waters feed convection and snowfall amounts increase in the North pacific and Pacific North West. Promoting low pressure, this results in Southerly winds across California and Southern areas of the US, meaning warm and wet from Central areas and towards Florida. The following graphic demonstrates U.S. pressure patterns as a result of an El Nino: El Nino Outlook.
Lower Solar Activity will be “very low” into 2016; again a pointer towards cold “shots” being more likely for the North East out of Canada, due to a Polar Jet Stream forced South…
ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), is not the only factor present. There are many slices of the cake, or ingredients of the cake, such as Chocolate and frost (sorry for increasing your appetite ;), that go into the 2015-2016 prediction. For example, here at KasimsWeatherWatcher we closely monitor solar activity, as the “twists and turns”, will help us forecast the likely shape of flow of cold air across the states. 2015-16 would be the third year in a row of severe snow storms & harsh conditions across the North East. This would inevitably lead to cool, wet and snowy conditions in the NE, whilst in the SW drier, warmer and more settled conditions would be experienced, however at times very icy in Central regions. Here’s a graphic as to how low solar activity affects the typical U.S Winter pattern and may do into 2016. Increasing the risk of severe conditions leaking South: Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Solar Activity Low to Create Severe Winter 2015/2016.
Solar Activity; Very Low, could this lead to a negative NAO (cold for NE)? Now, moving on: as you can see from the Chart below, interestingly solar activity is going to hang around “50 sun spots” on the solar apparent disk. This isn’t incredibly low, like experienced in 2009-2010, which brought severe cold to Europe to. However, it is low enough to increase the risk of Sudden Stratospheric warming & cold severely snowy weather into the North East downwelling into Central states & mid planes, bringing another extremely bitter forecast during 2015-2016. However, exactly how solar activity will fluctuate which is influential on warming events, is very uncertain. Although, this combination of a Strong El Nino & low solar activity would lead to an incredibly rough ride in the North East of the states. By late 2015, we are forecast to be very low solar activity, this would have huge impacts for Winter.
Winter 2015-2016; Cooler, Wetter, Snowier due to Super El Nino & Declining Solar Activity away from the North West.
Final Outlook + Conclusion: & How things are still to change (Accuracy is Moderate, however previous forecasts have had high accuracy ( for example 2013/2014). Extended range for 2015-2016 is very uncertain due to how the dynamic atmosphere can not be explained in words. Outlook’s for more than a few weeks out in general is a mind boggling mine field of weather uncertainties, unknows, weak links & uncharted snow realms. Now, for the North West in general, I think this season may be the mildest & driest here for more areas. Note: Final forecast will zoom in on Ohio, New York, Tennesse, California & Carolina snow predictions & many more. I would like to reiterate that these updates from Kasim are mainly for experimental reasons. During of 2015-2016, we will have a strong El Nino, up to 3C above average. The El Nino will be modoki, so stronger across Central parts of the Pacific. A modoki has a Higher Correlation to cold, severe patterns for the US, again especially in the East. Don’t worry those of you in the West, I have more to come for you folks. Winter 2016 likely conditions by judging current factors: Colder than Average conditions for the North East, with a high risk of severe snow & cold around Newfoundland, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania. The classic event of a North Easter, which is a sharp area of low pressure affecting the NE during the Winter months; would likely bring large snow events to West Virginia, and even spreading at times similar events to Indiana / Ohio. Large amounts of uncertainties for Southern areas, due to uncertainty of other factors & how these will influence the “pressure pattern”. For example, if the El Nino headed South, Arkansas & Carolina could experience some severe conditions. Similarly, if the El Nino was further North, Colorado / Nebraska could be in for it & PA as well (in terms of severe conditions). How these factors atmospherically reveal during Autumn and of course how these impact the set up, will largely impact how things are forecast, especially for Central and Southern States. Thank you very much for reading KasimsWeatherWatcher’s 2015/2016 preliminary prediction, please stay tuned for further forecasts. Another important statement to make, is that Missouri & Delaware are on the “brink” of a wave of very cold air from the far North West during the early December period, including states around this area, especially if the Super El Nino surfaces. Extremely warmer than average Arctic for 2015-2016!. Current thoughts state that temperatures here will continue to rise over the coming years. By 2028, most of the Arctic Sea Ice could be mostly melted. Of course, early long range forecasts to that range (more than 10 years), are incredibly uncertain. It wouldn’t be valid to say that a lower volume of Arctic sea ice causes milder weather apart from perhaps Summer months; as there is no direct physical link between temperatures at 2 meters above sea level in the Arctic and temperatures further South ie Texas. Below is the current map of Arctic temperatures; very high. Your Daily United States winter Forecast Updates will continue as we head closer towards the 2015-2016 season for the E and North West, which continues to look potentially severe, however more detailed predictions will be available in August…