<29.09.15>. US Winter Prediction Update/Issue #6. Still a Brutal Winter; the Seasonal Models Agree. However will it be a VERY Brutal One?… Find out here :) Due to a mixture of both personal and technological issues I have not been able to update this Winter Forecast; however now I will put together a few string of thoughts. Not much has changed since the last update. I am still anticipating a strong polar flow due to the alarmingly strong jet stream, and this will drive South due to lowering solar activity, this means I am still predicting a potentially severe Winter for the East Coast, North East etc. The Chart Below shows a VERY interesting El Nino development for later this year, El Nino peaks around late November, meaning severe snow conditions may develop earlier say in Mid-December, rather than peaking in January, but we shall see. A very important factor for the Winter Weather is SNOW COVER; this information will be released in October/November so still some time left for that. However as this is my Second to Last Update I will also release by-state predictions for the States on this update as well.
Latest El Nino Analysis For Winter 2015/2016; A STRONG El Nino However Peaking Earlier, Sparks Snow Trouble;
Now, the CFS Weather Model agrees on the idea of a cold winter for the US, as seen by the chart below. A few other weather models are also featured below. The Met Office Model is going for a generally cool to cold scenario for the Central, Eastern and Southern States but the North and North West see a slightly different scenario. I think the NW & North will see a mixture of warm & cold this Winter due to the variation of the polar jet, however the rest of the area (apart from the West/SW), will see majorly long periods of severe cold once the El Nino has finished it’s output (this probably by mid December).
And Finally the Brazilian – An Outlier to be fair; however there is still a slim chance of a mild “stormy”, “wet” Winter, but it wont feel particularly mild.
This post will be updated in the coming days, I am very hopeful. For Now I think with the dropping off of solar activity and a strong jet stream, this combination will lead to an unforgiving polar jet which will sink South many times to give us a cold and snowy pattern for the North East of the US. Whilst for the North and North West, you’ll see a “mix” of conditions. A full state by state map will be provided soon, before mid October as well as a final Forecast. For now it’s looking good, quite a Brutal Winter on the way ;) Kasim :)
<09.08.15>Welcome, to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s United States 2015-2016 Weather Forecast & Prediction, DAILY updates continue. Well, thanks for staying – I have your AUGUST update now :). In this prediction we discuss the type of winter, cold, mild, for the US that could be in store (whether you’re in Chicago or Kentucky – we have you covered). It’s looking like another brutal Winter ahead by KasimsWeatherWatcher, however not for all areas, – with a strong polar ice & snow fall flow from the Arctic, Read on to find the Map with info for the Outlook for your area, and information as to why this is the forecast – the next update will be on the 1st of September.
Surprisingly, another actively cold & snow storm full season is likely during this year for the US (not for every area however). What kind of season do we have in store this year? Well, find my by state thoughts by reading this exciting update, we shall look into exactly what will happen using many long range techniques.Are We STILL Going to have a Super El Nino? Well; here’s your answer: it’s likely to match that of 1997/8. That Winter WAS a Mild One with Average Snow. However THIS year we have a different polar set up, with the Magnetic Polar Shift currently happening, combining with the Strong Jet Stream, this could lead to High amounts of Northern Blocking pushing Heavy Snow South into Indiana, Arkansas, Michigan, Ohio Etc. And the rest of the the US, but not all areas, especially the East but also some Central & Mid Atlantic Areas, the Mountains of the West should have a slightly Milder than Average Season.
Long Range Forecasts (Especially those for Winter and Autumn) are very uncertain as the atmosphere is fluid, those who are familiar with long range predictions will realize this complication, so please don’t take this forecast too seriously… I shall Update again in September. Here is my Prognosis Map for the coming season for the Canada, North America & US Areas;
What is behind Issue #3 Of US Winter Prediction?;
Our Winter 2015-2016 Third Update Closely Examined the Solar Magnetic Shift, Solar Activity, El Nino, QBO & The connection to the Jet Stream, the atmospheric currents & gulf streams. This all falls down to a fairly cold winter in the East, especially later on, further West a slightly milder season is likely for most* areas, in fact rather average. The mid latitude Jet Stream shall allow wetter and more “mild” winter conditions into Southern US Areas, further North for the Mid Atlantic, Mid West, CA & North East, We shall see a mix of conditions, the map above gives an idea of how this is likely to turn out. Subtle changes since the previous update in July. The SEPTEMBER WINTER 2016 Update is likely to be changed significantly.- 1st of September that is, I shall issue another MAP, and also go much deeper into Snow Cover, and Snow Predictions By State.
Across Many Parts of the US - A Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East & Mid East Coast yet Again, to Read why find out more Below. If you would like To view my UK & Europe UK Winter 2016 Prediction, Click Here. Things are looking VERY Interesting this year, an intriguing combo of low solar activity & a very strong El Nino could develop an unforgiving North Eastern snow set up for the US, and frequent Northern Blocking for the other side of the Atlantic. The Chart below shows the super, or very Strong El Nino likely to produce a bitingly cold winter in the East US for 2015/2016 – however we have still a lot of research to do. Return for the next update in September.
“Snow – Falling in a Dome” This 2015-2016 EL NINO Event could be a record breaker, in fact is likely to be, but does this mean we’ll see a record breaking Winter? What is Snow in a Dome? It is when snow re hits one particular area again & again, mainly due to the pattern being re instated & reoccurring again and again due to the driving patterns not changing. These driving patterns will influence my Forecast. Find out here… Seasonal Models Are Unleashing the Perpetual Ice Storm, especially in the Highlighted Area, here is KasimsWeatherWatcher’s PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW (including temperature and precipitation), the word “Brutal” & “Cold” Crops Up a LOT. By state predictions will be released during August, including final updates during October on wards:
As seen by the chart below, cold & rather snowy conditions are likely to be found very often. To access my 2015/16 Predictions Page Click Here. The exact dates of blizzards & events are uncertain as weather can not be predicted to the pin that far out. However, we have a good idea that the general theme will be a)cold, and b)snowy, for Eastern & Central areas in particular. Further West the Super Strong El Nino should keep temperatures up a little, perhaps even a little milder than average. However this large contrast in temperatures from West to East across the US could create some large storm events through the period.
Climate Data System (CFS) long range weather Forecast, Also Predicts Extreme Conditions across Eastern Areas, with a Milder Season for the Mid West :
US by State Forecast info + Detailed Meteorological Factors; Severely Cold Conditions (At least for a Wide geographical Area) are Interestingly also Predicted by the Jamstech IOD long range model. As you can see the deep blue color reflects the below average temperatures, likely to be joined by a hellish amount of snow yet again, falling in great snow storms in the North and East. Read on for further information + detail into your Winter Forecast right here. The states we will cover include Carolina, New York, Missouri, Delaware, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Maryland & Colorado :).
New Winter Prognosis/Preliminary US Temperature Map; An Inflow of Cold & Warm, for 2015-16 for different regions (California Questions to).
Now, the below chart explains why I am getting a little concerned for how cold & heavy snowy 2015/16 may be for parts of the US. A strong, or even “Super” El Nino, combined with a strong jet steam & lower solar activity could give a winter that’s not been witnessed before into 2016. But, we’re not exactly sure if this is going to be the case. A “Perpetual Ice Storm” Is likely during this season mainly for the North East as far West as Indiana/Kentucky but perhaps even further West. That is why you must stay tuned for the next Prediction update for 2016 US. Now for California there are still many uncertainties however a North/South split looks fairly likely. NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ON THE 1ST OF AUGUST TAKE NOTE.
The first US snow spot (snow cover) has started to develop across Siberia. Snow cover across the Siberian plain & Northern Hemisphere is a significant factor when forecasting how much Northern Blocking is likely to form. Northern Blocking is the most significant weather mechanism that allows cold air to drain off the pole and deliver cold & snowy conditions in mid latitudes and during any year to. The first white stuff spot, or appearance of the white stuff as weather geeks call it, usually appears in September. For an In-Depth explanation of the Snow Cover please Click Here for Snow Cover Winter 2016 Watch.
THIS IS WHAT AN EL NINO PATTERN WOULD YIELD DURING A REGULAR WINTER IN THE UNITED STATES & LIKELY FOR 2016 TO EVEN A SUPER ONE:
Welcome to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s detailed ENSO, Solar Activity, Sea Surface Temperature & Model 2015/16 Update; severe conditions likely in the North East U.S due to El Nino. Overview of the Forecast & Why I’m forecasting a Severe One Again for Winter 2016: The upcoming intense El Nino & high sea surface temperatures are forecast to drive cold and at times very snowy weather into the North East of the U.S during the season ahead; especially in the North East. Solar activity will increase risk of severe weather & high amounts of snowfall across the North East of the US, especially later on in the season by declining at high rates causing a drop in the NAO. The graphic below shows how solar activity will affect U.S conditions, sudden stratospheric warming can occur during December, January & February, and lead me to predict a “Winter Storm”, or a battle of air creating a good amount of snow:
Detailed Forecast; El Nino, NAO, Arctic Sea Ice, Solar Activity & how these will affect the mid level snow pattern:
Eastern + South US (Cold), & Western US (near normal – Warm).
El Nino is a spell of warm waters in the Pacific and usually pushes Warm air into California, with colder temperatures & high snow across the East towards New York & even as far South as Florida. These are the main factors influencing weather here, now, further updates will be released further as we edge closer towards Christmas, stay tuned for further updates. In the mood for some snow? Read on. CFS Model Forecasts:
US, Winter 2015/2016 may be Severely Cold, Recent Predictions Suggest, but milder for the North West:
The CFS produces some fairly alarming temperature maps, especially in Southern areas. Years 2013-14 & 2014-15 have been dominated by a bitingly cold & severe North Easterly wind across most of the United States, feeding in exceptionally severe conditions for this part of the globe, but even to the South of this area as well, due to the combination with the Southerly tracking Jet in El Nino. An El Nino would enforce the chance of this recurring, bringing cold & snowy flows across the East of the states in particular. What kind of El Nino is predicted for the season ahead? Various long range charts are interestingly all going for a strong El Nino. The Climate Model System (Shortened to CFS) from NOAA, Thinks of a Very Strong El Nino, increasing the risk of Snow for the East:
What is the reliability of the CFS; any accuracy into 2016?
During the early stages of the year, ENSO predictions have low accuracy, however accuracy during this time of the year is quite good. Giving a high confidence of at least a moderate to marginally strong El Nino; bringing no doubt severe outbreaks of snow etc, for the North East.
El Nino & How it will Affect Winter Weather in the US in the East and West + Mid Atlantic Forecast (Explanation).
El Nino is when the usually conspiring & strong trade winds push warmer waters away from the Pacific weaken, and warm water is allowed to sink East towards Peru, heating up the Pacific. El Nino is not a “rare” event. ENSO (the Oscillation between a cold and warm Central Pacific), is one of the main or most influential impacting factors when forecasting conditions for much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially the US. Warmer than average waters feed convection and snowfall amounts increase in the North pacific and Pacific North West. Promoting low pressure, this results in Southerly winds across California and Southern areas of the US, meaning warm and wet from Central areas and towards Florida. The following graphic demonstrates U.S. pressure patterns as a result of an El Nino as seen below there: El Nino Outlook for 2015/2016.
Lower Solar Activity will be “very low” into 2016; again a pointer towards cold “shots” being more likely for the North East out of Canada, due to a Polar Jet Stream forced South…
ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), is not the only factor present. There are many slices of the cake, or ingredients of the cake, such as Chocolate and frost (sorry for increasing your appetite ;), that go into the prediction. For example, here at KasimsWeatherWatcher we closely monitor solar activity, as the “twists and turns”, will help us forecast the likely shape of flow of cold air across the states. 2015-16 would be the third year in a row of severe snow storms & harsh conditions across the North East. Recent SOI updates show values at an incredible -50, the last time this happened was 2010. The more negative the SOI the worse the El Nino is likely to be. This would inevitably lead to cool, wet and snowy conditions in the NE, whilst in the SW drier, warmer and more settled conditions would be experienced for the far & Mid West, however at times very icy in Central regions and Mid Atlantic. Here’s a graphic as to how low solar activity affects the typical U.S pattern and may do during this year’s interest season. Increasing the risk of severe conditions leaking South:
Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Solar Activity Low to Create Severe Winter 2015/2016 From KasimsWeatherWatcher in the US.
Solar Activity; Very Low, could this lead to a negative NAO (cold for NE)? Now, moving on: as you can see from the Chart below, interestingly solar activity is going to hang around “50 sun spots” on the solar apparent disk. This isn’t incredibly low, like experienced in 2009-2010, which brought severe cold to Europe to. However, it is low enough to increase the risk of Sudden Stratospheric warming & cold severely snowy weather into the North East downwelling into Central states & mid planes, bringing another extremely bitter forecast during 2015-2016. However, exactly how solar activity will fluctuate which is influential on warming events, is very uncertain. Although, this combination of a Strong El Nino & low solar activity would lead me to Prediction to an incredibly rough ride in the North East of the states. By late 2015, we are heading into very low solar activity, this would have huge impacts for Winter.
US Winter 2015-2016 is likely to be Cooler, Wetter, Snowier due to Super El Nino & Declining Solar Activity away from the North West, the Farmers Almanac is an interesting put- together.
Final Outlook + Conclusion: & How things are still to change (Accuracy is Moderate, however previous forecasts have had high accuracy ( for example 2013/2014).
Extended range pattern prediction (which is in layman’s terms what winter forecasting is) is very uncertain due to how the dynamic atmosphere can not be explained in words. This explains why the Farmers 2015/2016 Almanac will not release their predictions for quite a while. Outlook’s for more than a few weeks out in general is a mind boggling mine field of weather uncertainties, unknows, weak links & uncharted snow realms. Now, for the North West in general, I think this season may be the mildest & driest here for more areas. Note: Final update will zoom in on Ohio, New York, Tennesse, California & Carolina, West Virginia snow predictions & many more.
I would like to reiterate that these updates from Kasim are mainly for experimental reasons. For this year’s forecast. we will have a strong El Nino, up to 3C above average. The El Nino will be modoki, so stronger across Central parts of the Pacific. A modoki has a Higher Correlation to cold, severe patterns for the US, again especially in the East. Don’t worry those of you in the West, I have more good news to come for you folks. Winter 2016 likely conditions by judging current factors: Colder than Average conditions for the North East, with a high risk of severe snow & cold around Newfoundland, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, perhaps Missouri & Arkansas to.
The classic event of a North Easter, which is a sharp area of low pressure affecting the NE; would likely bring large snow events to West Virginia, and even spreading at times similar events to Indiana / Ohio. Large amounts of uncertainties for Southern areas, due to uncertainty of other factors & how these will influence the “pressure pattern”. For example, if the El Nino headed South, Arkansas & Carolina could experience some severe conditions, poor news for Farmers. Similarly, if the El Nino was further North, Colorado / Nebraska could be in for it in terms of a Severe Winter experience & PA as well (in terms of severe conditions). How these factors atmospherically reveal during Autumn and of course how these impact the set up, will largely impact how things are forecast, especially for Central and Southern States.
Thank you very much for reading KasimsWeatherWatcher‘s 2015/2016 preliminary prediction, please stay tuned for further info/ outlook thoughts. Another important statement to make, is that Missouri & Delaware are on the “brink” of a wave of very cold air from the far North West during the early December period, including states around this area, especially if the Super El Nino surfaces, this is the third winter year in our Almanac of updates for the United States of America.
Extremely warmer than average Arctic for 2015-2016 Winter?
Current thoughts state that temperatures here will continue to rise over the coming years. By 2028, most of the Arctic Sea Ice could be mostly melted. Of course, early long range thought to that range (more than 10 years), are incredibly uncertain. It wouldn’t be valid to say that a lower volume of Arctic sea ice causes milder weather apart from perhaps Summer months; as there is no direct physical link between temperatures at 2 meters above sea level in the Arctic and temperatures further South ie Texas, Delaware or any particular location.
Below is the current map of Arctic temperatures; very high. Your Daily United States Missouri winter Forecast Updates will continue as we head closer towards that season for the E and North West, which continues to look potentially 2016 style severe, however more detailed predictions will be available in August (the next prelim update will be featured on the 1st of August 2015)…