U.S WINTER PREDICTION 2015/2016 Weather;*Brutal Snow & Cold El Nino. | KasimsWeatherWatcher.com
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U.S WINTER 2015/2016 Weather PREDICTION;*Brutal Snow & Cold El Nino.

KasimsWeather United States.

Welcome To KasimsWeatherWatchers 2015/16 US Prediction.

<09.08.15>Welcome, to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s United States 2015-2016 Weather Forecast & Prediction, DAILY updates continue. Well, thanks for staying – I have your AUGUST update now :). In this prediction we discuss the type of winter, cold, mild, for the US that could be in store (whether you’re in Chicago or Kentucky – we have you covered). It’s looking like another brutal Winter ahead by KasimsWeatherWatcher, however not for all areas, – with a strong polar ice & snow fall flow from the Arctic, Read on to find the Map with info for the Outlook for your area, and information as to why this is the forecast – the next update will be on the 1st of September. 

Surprisingly, another actively cold & snow storm full season is likely during this year for the US (not for every area however). What kind of season do we have in store this year? Well, find my by state thoughts by reading this exciting update, we shall look into exactly what will happen using many long range techniques.Are We STILL Going to have a Super El Nino? Well; here’s your answer: it’s likely to match that of 1997/8. That Winter WAS a Mild One with Average Snow. However THIS year we have a different polar set up, with the Magnetic Polar Shift currently happening, combining with the Strong Jet Stream, this could lead to High amounts of Northern Blocking pushing Heavy Snow South into Indiana, Arkansas, Michigan, Ohio Etc. And the rest of the the US, but not all areas, especially the East but also some Central & Mid Atlantic Areas, the Mountains of the West should have a slightly Milder than Average Season.

Long Range Forecasts (Especially those for Winter and Autumn) are very uncertain as the atmosphere is fluid, those who are familiar with long range predictions will realize this complication, so please don’t take this forecast too seriously… I shall Update again in September. Here is my Prognosis Map for the coming season for the Canada, North America & US Areas; 

KasimsWeatherWatcher's Winter Prediction Issue #3 2016; Magnetic Solar Position Change influences this update, as the head towards Russia will allow a strong jet stream to head into the UK

The Upcoming Winter Season is likely to be full of surprises; however a generally Snowy & Cold Winter can be expected in the East (not quite Brutal), further West, near Average to “at times cool”, and “at times warm”. California Dry – and probably wet for Texas, Atlanta, Florida etc. Cold for Missouri, Colorado, Delaware, and Kentucky, New York :).

What is behind Issue #3 Of US Winter Prediction?;

Our Winter 2015-2016 Third Update Closely Examined the Solar Magnetic Shift, Solar Activity, El Nino, QBO & The connection to the Jet Stream, the atmospheric currents & gulf streams. This all falls down to a fairly cold winter in the East, especially later on, further West a slightly milder season is likely for most* areas, in fact rather average. The mid latitude Jet Stream shall allow wetter and more “mild” winter conditions into Southern US Areas, further North for the Mid Atlantic, Mid West, CA & North East, We shall see a mix of conditions, the map above gives an idea of how this is likely to turn out. Subtle changes since the previous update in July. The SEPTEMBER WINTER 2016 Update is likely to be changed significantly.- 1st of September that is, I shall issue another MAP, and also go much deeper into Snow Cover, and Snow Predictions By State.

Across Many Parts of the US - A Cold & Snowy (Brutal) Severe Season is More than Likely for the North East & Mid East Coast yet Again, to Read why find out more Below. If you would like To view my UK & Europe UK Winter 2016 Prediction, Click Here. Things are looking VERY Interesting this year, an intriguing combo of low solar activity & a very strong El Nino could develop an unforgiving North Eastern snow set up for the US, and frequent Northern Blocking for the other side of the Atlantic.  The Chart below shows the super, or very Strong El Nino likely to produce a bitingly cold winter in the East US for 2015/2016 – however we have still a lot of research to do. Return for the next update in September. 

A STRONG to SUPER El Nino is likely by late 2015; 3.0C above average. This is likely to promise more cold & severe winter temperatures for the North East of the United States, Carolina, Great Lakes, New York, Washington DC, and much more.

ISSUE #3 2015/2016 Prediction Get Ready - A STRONG to SUPER El Nino is likely by late this year; as much as 3.0C above average. This is likely to promise more cold & severe winter temperatures for the North East of the United States, Carolina, Great Lakes, New York, Washington DC, and much more.

“Snow – Falling in a Dome” This 2015-2016 EL NINO Event could be a record breaker, in fact is likely to be, but does this mean we’ll see a record breaking Winter? What is Snow in a Dome? It is when snow re hits one particular area again & again, mainly due to the pattern being re instated & reoccurring again and again due to the driving patterns not changing. These driving patterns will influence my Forecast. Find out here… Seasonal Models Are Unleashing the Perpetual Ice Storm, especially in the Highlighted Area, here is KasimsWeatherWatcher’s PRELIMINARY OVERVIEW (including temperature and precipitation), the word “Brutal” & “Cold” Crops Up a LOT. By state predictions will be released during August, including final updates during October on wards:

As seen by the chart below, cold & rather snowy conditions are likely to be found very often. To access my 2015/16 Predictions Page Click Here. The exact dates of blizzards & events are uncertain as weather can not be predicted to the pin that far out. However, we have a good idea that the general theme will be a)cold, and b)snowy, for Eastern & Central areas in particular. Further West the Super Strong El Nino should keep temperatures up a little, perhaps even a little milder than average. However this large contrast in temperatures from West to East across the US could create some large storm events through the period. 

Isolated Severe Brutal Conditions; Overview of KasimsWeatherWatcher's US Winter 2015/2016 Preliminary MAP.

Issue #2, Winter 2016 Prediction USA, Severely Brutal Conditions Likely in the East & Central/Western Areas Milder than Average ?

Climate Data System (CFS) long range weather Forecast, Also Predicts Extreme Conditions across Eastern Areas, with a Milder Season for the Mid West :

Increasingly Severe Snow / Brutal Set up Hinted by the CFS For Winter 2015/2016.

The CFS Weather Model’s Prognosis is
a Brutal Winter for the US Again, with Below Average Temperatures for late 2015, meaning a great deal of snow :)

US by State Forecast info + Detailed Meteorological Factors; Severely Cold Conditions (At least for a Wide geographical Area) are Interestingly also Predicted by the Jamstech IOD long range model. As you can see the deep blue color reflects the below average temperatures, likely to be joined by a hellish amount of snow yet again, falling in great snow storms in the North and East. Read on for further information + detail into your Winter Forecast right here. The states we will cover include Carolina, New York, Missouri, Delaware, West Virginia, Missouri, Arkansas, Maryland & Colorado :).

New Winter Prognosis/Preliminary US Temperature Map; An Inflow of Cold & Warm, for 2015-16 for different regions (California Questions to).

Now, the below chart explains why I am getting a little concerned for how cold & heavy snowy 2015/16 may be for parts of the US. A strong, or even “Super” El Nino, combined with a strong jet steam & lower solar activity could give a winter that’s not been witnessed before into 2016. But, we’re not exactly sure if this is going to be the case. A “Perpetual Ice Storm” Is likely during this season mainly for the North East as far West as Indiana/Kentucky but perhaps even further West. That is why you must stay tuned for the next Prediction update for 2016 US. Now for California there are still many uncertainties however a North/South split looks fairly likely. NEXT UPDATE WILL BE ON THE 1ST OF AUGUST TAKE NOTE.

The South will be rather cool and wet, with snow & snowy conditions for Central and Eastern Areas; Mid Atlantic, North East & East for 2016 Winter. Also the East Coast could have some brutal shots at times due to this super El Nino - perhaps 3.5C+ above the average for the Pacific.

Issue #6 2016 Winter. High Pressure will abstain a snow making / high & cold snowfall season for the South US and East. Further West, for California to high pressure will lead to another dry season Forecast by KasimsWeatherWatcher….

The first US snow spot (snow cover) has started to develop across Siberia. Snow cover across the Siberian plain & Northern Hemisphere is a significant factor when forecasting how much Northern Blocking is likely to form. Northern Blocking is the most significant weather mechanism that allows cold air to drain off the pole and deliver cold & snowy conditions in mid latitudes and during any year to. The first white stuff spot, or appearance of the white stuff as weather geeks call it, usually appears in September. For an In-Depth explanation of the Snow Cover please Click Here for Snow Cover Winter 2016 Watch.

THIS IS WHAT AN EL NINO PATTERN WOULD YIELD DURING A REGULAR WINTER IN THE UNITED STATES & LIKELY FOR 2016 TO EVEN A SUPER ONE:

An El Nino (Warm Pacific), Promotes a Ridge in Alaska, Forcing Severe Cold & Snow South During Winter Across Central & Eastern Areas.

An El Nino (Warm Pacific), promotes a ridge in Alaska, forcing severe Cold & Snow South During this Forecast Across Central & Eastern Areas. – The JMA Prediction Is “Bang in Line” with These thoughts.

Welcome to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s detailed ENSO, Solar Activity, Sea Surface Temperature & Model 2015/16 Update; severe conditions likely in the North East U.S due to El Nino. Overview of the Forecast & Why I’m forecasting a Severe One Again for Winter 2016: The upcoming intense El Nino & high sea surface temperatures are forecast to drive cold and at times very snowy weather into the North East of the U.S during the season ahead; especially in the North East. Solar activity will increase risk of severe weather & high amounts of snowfall across the North East of the US, especially later on in the season by declining at high rates causing a drop in the NAO. The graphic below shows how solar activity will affect U.S conditions, sudden stratospheric warming can occur during December, January & February, and lead me to predict a “Winter Storm”, or a battle of air creating a good amount of snow:

Low Solar Activity aids the production of High Pressure systems around Alaska during Winter. Low Solar activity is forecast during the coming Winter, leading us to forecast a likely cold and even brutally cold winter in the North East yet again...

Low Solar Activity aids the production of High Pressure systems around Alaska . Low Solar activity is predicted during Winter, leading to a likely cold and even brutally cold in the North East US yet again, affecting Pennsylvania with these storms yet again, find out more in later Kasimsweatherwatcher winter updates.

Detailed Forecast; El Nino, NAO, Arctic Sea Ice, Solar Activity & how these will affect the mid level snow pattern:

Eastern + South US (Cold), & Western US (near normal – Warm).

El Nino is a spell of warm waters in the Pacific and usually pushes Warm air into California, with colder temperatures & high snow across the East towards New York & even as far South as Florida. These are the main factors influencing weather here, now, further updates will be released further as we edge closer towards Christmas, stay tuned for further updates.   In the mood for some snow? Read on.   CFS Model Forecasts:

US, Winter 2015/2016 may be Severely Cold, Recent Predictions Suggest, but milder for the North West:

The CFS produces some fairly alarming temperature maps, especially in Southern areas. Years 2013-14 & 2014-15 have been dominated by a bitingly cold & severe North Easterly wind across most of the United States, feeding in exceptionally severe conditions for this part of the globe, but even to the South of this area as well, due to the combination with the Southerly tracking Jet in El Nino. An El Nino would enforce the chance of this recurring, bringing cold & snowy flows across the East of the states in particular. What kind of El Nino is predicted for the season ahead? Various long range charts are interestingly all going for a strong El Nino. The Climate Model System (Shortened to CFS) from NOAA, Thinks of a Very Strong El Nino, increasing the risk of Snow for the East:

This Forecast Produced by NOAA For Winter 2015-2016, shows a Strong El Nino  Pattern during Winter 2015-2016.

This Forecast Produced by NOAA, shows a Strong El Nino Pattern for the North West Winter.

What is the reliability of the CFS; any accuracy into 2016?

During the early stages of the year, ENSO predictions have low accuracy, however accuracy during this time of the year is quite good. Giving a high confidence of at least a moderate to marginally strong El Nino; bringing no doubt severe outbreaks of snow etc, for the North East.

El Nino & How it will Affect Winter Weather in the US in the East and West + Mid Atlantic Forecast (Explanation).

El Nino is when the usually conspiring & strong trade winds push warmer waters away from the Pacific weaken, and warm water is allowed to sink East towards Peru, heating up the Pacific. El Nino is not a “rare” event. ENSO (the Oscillation between a cold and warm Central Pacific), is one of the main or most influential impacting factors when forecasting conditions for much of the Northern Hemisphere, especially the US. Warmer than average waters feed convection and snowfall amounts increase in the North pacific and Pacific North West. Promoting low pressure, this results in Southerly winds across California and Southern areas of the US, meaning warm and wet from Central areas and towards Florida.  The following graphic demonstrates U.S. pressure patterns as a result of an El Nino as seen below there: El Nino Outlook for 2015/2016.

El Nino Promote's Severe Winter conditions across the North East of the US.

El Nino will be “Super” or very strong later in 2015, promoting the “North Easter” event. (Low pressure bringing cold & snowy conditions in the North East of the US).

Lower Solar Activity will be “very low” into 2016; again a pointer towards cold “shots” being more likely for the North East out of Canada, due to a Polar Jet Stream forced South

ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), is not the only factor present. There are many slices of the cake, or ingredients of the cake, such as Chocolate and frost (sorry for increasing your appetite ;), that go into the prediction. For example, here at KasimsWeatherWatcher we closely monitor solar activity, as the “twists and turns”, will help us forecast the likely shape of flow of cold air across the states. 2015-16 would be the third year in a row of severe snow storms & harsh conditions across the North East. Recent SOI updates show values at an incredible -50, the last time this happened was 2010. The more negative the SOI the worse the El Nino is likely to be. This would inevitably lead to cool, wet and snowy conditions in the NE, whilst in the SW drier, warmer and more settled conditions would be experienced for the far & Mid West, however at times very icy in Central regions and Mid Atlantic. Here’s a graphic as to how low solar activity affects the typical U.S pattern and may do during this year’s interest season. Increasing the risk of severe conditions leaking South:

Sudden Stratospheric Warming. Solar Activity Low to Create Severe Winter 2015/2016 From KasimsWeatherWatcher in the US.

Low Solar Activity aids the production of High Pressure systems around South Alaska during Winter. Low Solar activity is forecast during the coming Winter, leading us to forecast a likely cold and even brutally cold winter in the North East yet again...

Issue 1: Winter 2015-2016 Forecast US (stratospheric influence)

 Solar Activity; Very Low, could this lead to a negative NAO (cold for NE)? Now, moving on: as you can see from the Chart below, interestingly solar activity is going to hang around “50 sun spots” on the solar apparent disk. This isn’t incredibly low, like experienced in 2009-2010, which brought severe cold to Europe to. However, it is low enough to increase the risk of Sudden Stratospheric warming & cold severely snowy weather into the North East downwelling into Central states & mid planes, bringing another extremely bitter forecast during 2015-2016. However, exactly how solar activity will fluctuate which is influential on warming events, is very uncertain. Although, this combination of a Strong El Nino & low solar activity would lead me to Prediction to an incredibly rough ride in the North East of the states. By late 2015, we are heading into very low solar activity, this would have huge impacts for Winter.

Solar Prediction for 2015-2016; low solar activity. Impacts on the Winter season would be large, especially combined with a Strong El Nino.

Solar Prediction; low solar activity. Impacts on the North season would be large, especially combined with a Strong 2016 El Nino.

 

 US Winter 2015-2016 is likely to be Cooler, Wetter, Snowier due to Super El Nino & Declining Solar Activity away from the North West, the Farmers Almanac is an interesting put- together.

Final Outlook + Conclusion: & How things are still to change (Accuracy is Moderate, however previous forecasts have had high accuracy ( for example 2013/2014).

Extended range pattern prediction (which is in layman’s terms what winter forecasting is) is very uncertain due to how the dynamic atmosphere can not be explained in words. This explains why the Farmers 2015/2016 Almanac will not release their predictions for quite a while. Outlook’s for more than a few weeks out in general is a mind boggling mine field of weather uncertainties, unknows, weak links & uncharted snow realms. Now, for the North West in general, I think this season may be the mildest & driest here for more areas. Note: Final update will zoom in on Ohio, New York, Tennesse, California & Carolina, West Virginia snow predictions & many more.

I would like to reiterate that these updates from Kasim are mainly for experimental reasons. For this year’s forecast. we will have a strong El Nino, up to 3C above average. The El Nino will be modoki, so stronger across Central parts of the Pacific. A modoki has a Higher Correlation to cold, severe patterns for the US, again especially in the East. Don’t worry those of you in the West, I have more good news to come for you folks. Winter 2016 likely conditions by judging current factors: Colder than Average conditions for the North East, with a high risk of severe snow & cold around Newfoundland, New York, Florida, Pennsylvania, perhaps Missouri & Arkansas to.

The classic event of a North Easter, which is a sharp area of low pressure affecting the NE; would likely bring large snow events to West Virginia, and even spreading at times similar events to Indiana / Ohio. Large amounts of uncertainties for Southern areas, due to uncertainty of other factors & how these will influence the “pressure pattern”. For example, if the El Nino headed South, Arkansas & Carolina could experience some severe conditions, poor news for Farmers. Similarly, if the El Nino was further North, Colorado / Nebraska could be in for it in terms of a Severe Winter experience & PA as well (in terms of severe conditions). How these factors atmospherically reveal during Autumn and of course how these impact the set up, will largely impact how things are forecast, especially for Central and Southern States.

Thank you very much for reading KasimsWeatherWatcher‘s 2015/2016 preliminary prediction, please stay tuned for further info/ outlook thoughts. Another important statement to make, is that Missouri & Delaware are on the “brink” of a wave of very cold air from the far North West during the early December period, including states around this area, especially if the Super El Nino surfaces, this is the third winter year in our Almanac of updates for the United States of America.

Extremely warmer than average Arctic for 2015-2016 Winter?  

Current thoughts state that temperatures here will continue to rise over the coming years. By 2028, most of the Arctic Sea Ice could be mostly melted. Of course, early long range thought to that range (more than 10 years), are incredibly uncertain.  It wouldn’t be valid to say that a lower volume of Arctic sea ice causes milder weather apart from perhaps Summer months; as there is no direct physical link between temperatures at 2 meters above sea level in the Arctic and temperatures further South ie Texas, Delaware or any particular location.

Below is the current map of Arctic temperatures; very high. Your Daily United States Missouri winter Forecast Updates will continue as we head closer towards that season for the E and North West, which continues to look potentially 2016 style severe, however more detailed predictions will be available in August (the next prelim update will be featured on the 1st of August 2015)…

Extremely high temperatures around the Arctic will decrease Ice volumes; perhaps leading to increase Northern Blocking & negative NAO conditions for the Winter ahead.

Extremely high temperatures around the Arctic will decrease Ice volumes; perhaps leading to increase Northern Blocking & negative NAO conditions for The Prediction for the 2015-16 Winter, please return on the 1st of August for another KasimsWeatherWatcher Indiana update.

 

45 Responses so far.

  1. Matt says:

    Great information (from what I could understand. Ha!) for what we have to work with so far. I, like Sharon, am concerned with southern California as we, unlike the East Coast, prefer our winters cold and wet so our local snow resorts can maintain a solid base layer. Last season saw an odd, late shift that caused it to remain somewhat wet but unseasonably warm, making local snow conditions pretty awful.
    If I’m reading your analysis and the data correctly, it would seem this year is to follow that same trend? Any clarification would be great. Thanks for your time!
    -mC

    • Hi Matt!
      The current indication remains for the Coolest of US Winter 2013/14 Weather to be across the more Eastern & NE States areas with a Polar Low. – However Current guidance is Very Uncertain, if* it came off we could be Looking at a similar situation to last year in the Western US with Higher Pressure. :).

      • Mary says:

        What about Georgia? Nothing is ever mentioned about Georgia

        • Nadine says:

          Mary: True, this article may not have specifically said ‘and the outlook for Georgia in the U.S. is …’ but if you read the article you find things like “El Nino is a spell of warm waters in the Pacific and usually pushes Warm air into California, with colder temperatures & high snow across the East towards New York & even as far South as Florida – See more at: http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/#sthash.zLypfqJc.dpuf” and there is this “Promoting low pressure, this results in Southerly winds across California and Southern areas of the US, meaning warm and wet from Central areas and towards Florida. – See more at: http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/uswinter-2015-2016-prediction/#sthash.zLypfqJc.dpuf“. His maps, both hand-made and commercially made, show you information about the Southern U. S. There are other places in the article where he talks about the Southern U. S. but I will let you find them when you re-read the article. Now if you are talking about the country called Georgia, it appears that is not the subject of this article. Stay safe no matter what the season. Sincerely, A farther South resident

  2. Tottie says:

    Hello! I like in Oklahoma just south of oklahoma city. We have had a cooler summer than I am used to, and it has been great! Would it be safe to say our winter here will be more wet and cold, and maybe we will get an awesome blizzard?

    • Hi Tottie.
      I’m afraid Winter 2013/2014 is a Little far out to pick out Specific Details of Blizzard & Snow Events. If Oaklahoma Experienced a Cold & Wet Winter, Snow Events may be more Vigorous than a Mild & Wet Winter, on Average :).

  3. Tom says:

    http://theweathernerd.wordpress.com/2012/12/04/experimental-nino3-4-forecast-to-november-2015/
    I agree – I’ve been saying El Nino since December 2012, when I started looking at developing my own system for modelling Nino3.4 SST anomalies.

  4. Sharon says:

    Like Tom and Oklahoma, California has been having cooler than normal summer of which I love.
    The part of Los Angeles I live is a mile from the beach and we been running in the low 70′s this summer where last year we ran in the low to mid 80′s.
    There something going on when London is hotter than Los Angeles.
    Again I hope to God we get an el nino and not have to do with the drought we’ve been having the past few years. And make that a moderate El Nino.
    What is going on?

    • Hi Sharon, I’m not sure there’s much Going On which relates to Los Angeles being Cooler than London. It may* be a direct impact of Pressure, ie Low Pressure over the States, which builds a Week Jet off the Eastern Seaboard, thus allowing a Transient ridge to form across the British Isles.

  5. Tom says:

    Hi when are you going to post the next update? Thanks, Tom

  6. Ernie says:

    Hey Kasim,
    Does your forecast mean a colder winter for Northeast Fl and Southeast Ga. this year ?

  7. Tay says:

    ya i wont hold my breath till the time comes cuz im sure just like last yr something will change and i figure i check now jus to see where we at.

  8. hashim says:

    i live in the piedmont region in north Carolina what kind of a winter will we have here, im hopin for a bit warmer winter with more snow

    • Hi Hashim,
      N.Carolina would experience a Cooler & Snowier winter with an El Nino like Set-Up, the New* Update on the 2nd of August will reveal much more information on the Latest Forecast.

  9. hashim says:

    thanx

  10. Rudi says:

    What do you think of the lake effect snow for this winter? I live in upstate NY near Syracuse and I am wondering if we will get above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the upcoming winter.

  11. Angie says:

    I live in Manassas, VA close to the Washington, DC area and wanted what the outlook is for snow?

  12. John says:

    Good post man. Everyone, if you get a chance to come check out my site I have recently released my preliminary winter outlook

    Rapidweather.blogspot.com

  13. Jeffrey Brown says:

    Keep in mind ENSO is in La Nada conditions between -0.5 to +0.5 C. Week El Nino begins at >+0.05 C.

  14. Mark says:

    I’ve done study on climate for more years than will admit and we are back in a global cooling phase.

    I really like the forecasts on here. A lot of work has gone into them and I think the young man should become a meteorologist. He has the talent for it and seems to know what he’s doing and much of that is a gift in that you either have it or not. Everyone has a gift and some have it for this area.

    I’ll be checking back for updates on the forecast and thanks for posting the updates.

    Mark,

  15. Mark says:

    I expect a very cold winter to come especially in the central and Eastern US and Western Europe with hard freezes several times well down into FL. Even Atlanta should get some above average snows and just to the north where the climate line changes at Dalton, GA, from that area northward is going to get cold and stay cold. This means from TN to Canada with good amounts of snow but CPC has it dry over TN and that is just not going to happen so I’ll stick to this website for the updates and the forecaster gets more info and updates throughout fall season.

    Great website and will tell friends if they want weather forecasts to visit here to see good ones.

    Mark aka the original theweathernut,

    • Thank you Mark. Just viewed your website @ http://www.galacticcastaways.com/ ,Great site, and look forward to reading your Works, looks very interesting. I’m going to be releasing a new Update on this Page during the early part of September which will cover the forecast in much more Detail ie snow forecast & temperature detail for State specific regions. Excellent Website, thank you for your Comments and Good luck for the Future! :), Kasim.

    • Nadine says:

      Hi Mark- you throw me where you use ” climate line changes…”. Is there a different way you can say that? I see no climate change there, either now or in the future. Thank you.

  16. Tim Dantoni says:

    The current pattern we are in has not really changed since late winter. The southwest US has baked, Southeast very wet, the Midwest, Eastern US cooler then norm, with brief hot spells, followed by cool downs. The current pattern reminds me of the 1976 summer,with the Artic temperatures way below normal, sea ice the highest in the last ten years, this could be a very early start to winter east of the Mississippi. Some things need to change, like a weak el-nino, positive PNA. I like were we are at, there is something in the air thats tellimg me we are in for one heck of a winter. Tim Dantoni

    • Heatblizzard says:

      Oops it was you’re gas! *covers nose*……….Never mind. (side steps from the stage)

    • Nadine says:

      One problem though, at the very least – the polar ice is at an all-time low. Polar bears are drowning as they cannot swim the many miles between the ice floes which had been much larger and closer before.

  17. Kellie says:

    I live in Albuquerque, NM and from what I can tell, we may have a shot at some El Nino weather??? I know its a little early to tell but any info on NM would do wonders. Thanks!

  18. Tim Dantoni says:

    At this time any one predicting a weak el-nino for the winter of 2013-2014,sees some thing that I do not. Do not under estimate the Pacific when you live in the Mid Atlantic, there are so many things that correlate to good winters in the US, El-nino, La-Nino are just one of many key elements that go into making a winter forecast. I’m sticking with a more front sided winter for most locations East of the Mississippi. Predicting a very cold December, with above normal snow fall in the East. Any one trying to do a forecast for this winter right now is either real lucky, or real real good. Tim Dantoni

  19. Heatblizzard says:

    There’s another guy with a large blog up in Seattle Washington that talks more about Climate patterns then Mark Nelson does and even came up with a *Seattle Excitement Index* SEI as Cliff Mass calls it.

    He rates it like this. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-most-boring-winter-in-seattle.html

    Hereis one of his key posts.

    SWEI is calculated over the core of Seattle’s winter (Nov. 15-Feb 15) and is the sum of several components parts:

    (1) The number of days the temperature exceed 60F or drops below 25F.
    (2) The number of days with two inches or more of precipitation.
    (3) The number of days with sustained winds of 30 kt or more.
    (4) The number of months with more than 1 inch of snowfall.

    All inputs are from Seattle Tacoma Airport. I should note there are rigorous reasons for each of the above criteria. For example, many official groups (like this National Weather Service site) consider that hard freezes occur below 25F. Plants die. Local meteorologists note that wind damage often begins when sustained winds hit 30 kt or more. And local mayors confirm that even 1 inch over a month brings tension, excitement, and danger to local roadways. Folks, this is rigorous science.

    Here is his year rankings for Seattle Washington the far north! This winter is the most boring and uneventful based on the SWEI index described above. Actually, we are tied for most boring with 1963-1964. Specifically, 2012-13 and 1963-1964 had the lowest values of the SWEI index.

    Only old-timers who can remember back nearly FIFTY YEARS can wax nostalgic about such a boring winter. For the quantitative among you, here are the ranks of the top boring years (a lot of ties)

    19631115-19640215 1
    20121115-20130215 1
    20001115-20010215 2
    20011115-20020215 2
    20021115-20030215 2
    19601115-19610215 3
    19751115-19760215 3
    19821115-19830215 3
    19911115-19920215 3
    19971115-19980215 3
    19991115-20000215 3

    The most excitement Cliff Mass had was an extended period of low fog and 1 high tide event due to an astronomical feature and a medium low pressure. Whoopie! :(

  20. Max says:

    Will eastern kansas and western missouri (Kansas City) and surrounding areas get an above average snow season? Im hoping i can make some money by snow shoveling.

  21. Just Me says:

    Whats the winter looking like in eastern kentucky? Im hoping for another snowy one!

  22. Veronica says:

    Hello! Can you be more specific on Oklahoma winter please. Southern Oklahoma doesn’t necessarily get the same weather as Northern Oklahoma. So do you think that maybe you could be more specific about what you think the winter might look like for Tulsa and Okmulgee? Thank you.

  23. Heather black says:

    What are the temps looking like for michigan eastern upper peninsula? It was awful last and I’m hoping for just a little warmer.

  24. Mike Armando says:

    Usually El Nino brings milder winters for the east coast like it did in the 1990′s. What is the difference this time for the upcoming 2015/2016 =season that it will be cold and snowy. I live in Rocky Point, Long Island, NY and the last two were very brutal with lots of snow.

  25. Kelly says:

    For the winter of 2015-2016, we know should be a cold one for the eastern part of Canada as well.

    What are your thoughts on the current wild fires burning in BC and the prairies? Do you think the excess aerosols will cause even more of a cold snap this year by blocking out even more of the suns warmth?

    Thank you for your very informative website.

    • Kasmin2 :) says:

      Aerosols will likely have a huge impact this year – it will block out the sun’s rays leading to probably stronger polar & severe cold shots for the East, however it will also limit convection during some snow storms. The wild fires have to be due to the ridge in the Mid West, causing some dry conditions. It is sadly likely to remain this way for the predictable future :(.

  26. Shawn says:

    Hello Kasim! I know it currently looks like we are supposed to have a strong El Nino. We had only a few small snowfall events last year and just some very cold temps every now and then. I am a weather enthusiast! I am a big fan when it comes to snow and cold temperatures.

    Is it possible for it to be cold and snowy in Missouri during an El Nino depending on other factors? Because I would love to have an epic cold/snowy one! Can the polar vortex cold air move over Missouri even during an El Nino?

    • Kasmin2 :) says:

      During a Strong El Nino the pattern you described is possible – and it looks like you have a more favorable chance of seeing cold/ snow outbreaks during this next winter. However, I wouldn’t hold you’re breath this early – please come back for future updates as the prediction is likely to change a little between now & then.