U.S | Winter Weather Outlook | 2014-15 | - Prediction 2015 Significant Solar. | KasimsWeatherWatcher.com
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U.S. | Winter Weather Outlook | 2014-15 | :)

Get Your US Winter Weather Forecast For 2014-15 here :) Don’t Forget Projections By State Below. A Brutal Winter Forecast For The East? Looks Likely. The El Nino, Solar, QBO Significant Impacts For Winter Forecast 2014-15. Below you will find Detailed Analysis of the Drivers Then Below that You’ll Find A Detailed Summary By – State :) Will the El Nino continue into December?  Click Here – “US El Nino Prediction” for the Latest U.S Weather El Nino Atmospheric Update – The El Nino is Still On Course? 

The Poll Results Are Below & I Will Run it Again Next Month. It Shows that 40% See a Weak El Nino by Winter, 39% See a Moderate El Nino, and 21% see a Strong El Nino for Winter Forecast. It seems we Are Unlikely to Experience a Strong El Nino, a Weak Or Moderate Event Looks Likely Now :)

Consensus  For a Weak to Moderate Event for the Projection for 2014-15.

Detailed Non-Surface (In depth) Winter Factor Analysis, to Produce the Consensus for Winter 2014-15. Including Solar Activity, El Nino, QBO, Analogue Years, and Experimental Models :)

The Next Update will be on the 1st of September. Now, this Update is Much, Much More “Certain”, Than The Previous Update, although still needs to be taken with a great deal of salt as this prediction goes into 2015, which is next year… The Previous Update Can Be Found Below. Okay. Now, Let’s Just Take A Second To Analyze the Latest Global Conditions. Starting Off With Sea Surface Temperatures and how they may impact the Global set up and pressure patterns during December, January and February :).

US December, January & February Preliminary. Read Below For More (NEW YORK BLIZZARD), Could this be Winter 2014-15?

US December, January & February Preliminary. Read Below For More (NEW YORK BLIZZARD), Could this be?


Sea Surface Temps, Analogues And What We Can Gather for Winter Weather:

Analogue Years Interestingly (Are All Severe), Close to the Prediction ENSO for 2014-15 Winter, For Dec/Jan/Feb include:  76/77, 77/78, 02/03, 09/10. Outcome of those Winters; Either Cold or Severely Cold, with Heavy Snow at times. Yes, when it comes to Sea Surface Temperatures, or, “According” To the Predicted ENSO (El Nino) 2015 and Moderate Modoki (Which is a Central Based, Pacific Based, El Nino), We are Likely to see another Very Cold and Snowy Winter during 2014 / 15. Taking a Look at the Sea Surface Temperatures for 28.07.2014, you can See, it’s Looking again, a Little Weaker Signal There, the El Nino is a Little Weaker which implies 2 things a) The El Nino for Winter 2014- 15 will be Weak, or the El Nino will “reload” into Winter 2014-15, at the moment probably a mix, a Weak El Nino Forecast, Predicted for the Winter Season (0.8-1.0C), for Winter. I think the El Nino will still develop though. Take a look at what happened during the year of 2002 & 2009. 2002 and 2009 Both Had a Huge Modoki El Nino Development later in the Year, leading to Incredibly Severe Winters for the USA. Very Interesting that.. El Nino Forecast, A Modoki Set Up Is Signaled For The Forecast (Snowy More than Average is common with a Modoki, as you will find below)Now. A “Weak” Modoki, and a “Weak” El Nino may be the Occurrence of Winter 2014-2015. As the ENSO Is forecasted to Increase, and Intensify later this Year. Let’s talk about some Projections for the ENSO Then. The CFS Version 2, As You Can See Below Does In Fact agree that Regions 1+2 (Southern Part of the El  Nino Area), are forecast to Continue Around Average for Winter 2014-15, Similar to What they Are now. I have to Highly Credit the CFS for it’s July Prediction (Declining El Nino), But this Doesn’t mean it will get it’s Next Prediction Right, not at all. And as you can see it Increases & Intensifies the El Nino for Regions 3+4, again this is Similar to a Modoki, which Increases Confidence of a Weak El Nino (0.5-1.0C above average), and a Weak Modoki for the Winter, as the Majority of the Forecas Warm ENSO is located further North compared to a Typical El Nino. Here are those CFS 1/2 And 3/4.

Now. I have Combined the ENSO Projections, and the Analogues for this Winter to produce My Thoughts on what the El Nino Area may Look Like during Winter. As you can see, it’s a Weak El Nino in the 3+4 region and a Weak Central Based El Nino. This would bring Yes, the East of the US, and Canada, Overall Cold but Interspersed Very Cold and Snowy Weather for 2014-15, as a Weak El Nino pattern often does produce for Eastern U.S, and may well do for 2015 alike these anomaly years, although keep tuned for further analysis over September. Winter; Based on analogue years + El Nino outlook for this year including detailed sea surface temperature projections for the weather.

Idea Of Nino During the Upcoming, & Impacts :) ;

Now, as you can see the El Nino shown is not the “Strongest” of all. It’s actually a fairly weak El Nino, and is expected to become weaker by next April. Although combined with other Factors it Is possible to produce a Very Severely Cold Winter with above average Snow for the East (although Yes, this Set up would bring a Near Normal to Mild Winter for the West), not just on the El Nino alone. So, let’s take a Detailed view at some Other Factors 2014-2015 style.

Solar Activity; Generally Moderate, Impacts (?).

There’s really one big Caveat in terms of Solar, etc. The energy from the Sun does not always transfer to increase the NAO, as the way the Magnetic fields interact with the Sun’s Rays etc is not known (at least a Forecaster of my Credibility), Although what I can say is that Generally Solar Activity will be Moderate. Now during our ENSO analogue Winter’s, 09/10 saw Very Low  Solar Activity. 02/03 saw Similar Levels to those Forecast this Winter, Generally Moderate following a Peak. And 02/03 was Very Severe for the East Coast. This leads me to Think that Moderate Solar Activity can Inflate the Trough over the East US, During Winter 2014-15, And this Indeed Alters My Forecast (Increase the NAO), and Bring us Cooler Weather, snow etc, for Eastern Areas.

The Forecast is for a *Sharp Decrease* in Solar Activity  through the Winter Though, from around 60 sun spots to perhaps Only 40 spots on the disk By the End of the Winter. This means that the more Severe Conditions may Set up late in the Winter, perhaps during February or March. Of course it’s a little bit far out to be Certain about the natural “Fluctuation” of the Sun, although I do have a Rough Idea. Notice I talk a little more about this idea of “a Sharp Decrease”, again here. I can tell you though the Double Peak experienced in 2011-13 had Huge impacts over the 13-14 Winter for the USA & Canada, it is less likely for 2015. Solar Activity; Winter 2014-15 Impacts?  

The Quasi Biennial Oscillation and It’s Impacts on Outlook:

Ahh, the QBO & Winter. The “Quassi Biennial Oscillation”, Originally Discovered by the Met Office, is a 4 Pattern Oscillating between Easterly and Westerly direction in the Tropical Stratosphere. An Easterly QBO (Which is likely during the Winter of 2014-15) does Increase the Risk of Northern Blocking, to Forecast Colder conditions for the Mid-Latitudes, although the US Can Experience Both Forecast Possibilities during a Negative QBO during the Cold Months, a Negative QBO can lead to less Cold & Snowy conditions at times, although because of Mr 2014-15 Winter’s Uncertainty it’s Very Difficult to predict the Outcome, and a Westerly QBO can work to Inhibit Northern Blocking, a Westerly QBO in the Previous Winter Brought Severe Cold US Weather. What does Northern Blocking mean for us? Well, it can mean Average Winter conditions for Canada on the Whole, although Periods of Cold and Snowy weather for the US.

During the QBO being Negative (which Is what’s forecasted for Winter 2014-15), the Cold doesn’t last forever, it often comes and goes an can leave huge gaps between very significant severe weather. Take the Winter of 10/11 as an Example, not always Cold. With an Easterly QBO,  this May help produce at times more in the way of High pressure for the far NW, due to the affiliation of High Pressure connecting with the El Nino high, perhaps this year powered by more warm Sea Temps for NE Pacific. So, this does lead me to Think perhaps not as “Severe” going into 2015 for the far NW of the area. Here is that QBO prediction. Analogue ENSO years of 02/03 and 09/10 both had Declining QBO through the Winter, and is likely to again for 2014.  Easterly QBO Promoting Northern Blocking, Negative NAO And a Cold outlook Weather Scenario. Next Up, is the Seasonal Models. I Personally find it a challenge to use Seasonal Weather models with any Confidence when doing such a long range Forecast. 

South Korean & CFS; No Surprise.

The South Korean model is highlighting an extensively Blocked (Cold) Period for the East of the US, Milder to the West, for November, December and January. This Does support the Ideas put forward. Although Interestingly, the South Korean makes things Very Cold for the Very Southerly Most States. What the CFS does for NDJ is Equally As Alarming As Seen Below. Now, does this mean that the far South will see an Extremely wet and Cold Winter for 2014-15, Snow? It’s Quite Uncertain, although yes it Does make me Wonder what conditions that part of the World will experience during 2014-2015… Quite Severe Weather Pattern for 2015.

Conclusion For The Individual States for the Forecast :) ;

Florida; Temperature: Cold. Bulk Precipitation: Sleet or Rain. with some Ice, Above average Precipitation (Grotty Weather).

South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi; Temperature: Cool. Bulk Precipitation: Sleet or Snow on High Grounds, Icy in the North. Above average.

Texas; Temperature: Cool, Less Cool for West. Bulk Precipitation: Above Average.

Arizona & New Mexico; Temperature: Slightly Below. Precipitation: Near Normal, Above in East.

North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas: Temperature: Cold. Bulk Precipitation: Above Average Snow.

Oklahoma, Kansas: Bulk Precipitation: Heavy Snow. Temperature: Cold. Nice weather for winter fans.

Missouri, Iowa, Illinois Cold, Snowy. Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania: Temperature: Below. Snow: Average.

Wisconsin, Michigan: Temperature: Well Below. Snow: Slightly Above.

Virginia & West, Delaware, Maryland & New York; Temperature: Well Below. Snow: Well Above.

Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey: Snow: Above, – Well Above. Temp: Slightly Below.

Other Central NW’rn States (Surrounding Wyoming). Snow: Slightly Above. Temp: Slightly Below.

Far NW’rn States ie Surrounding Oregon: Temp: Normal. Precipitation: Slightly Below – Normal. Snow: Slightly Less Than Average.

California: Temps: Near Normal – Slightly Below. Snow: Near normal (High ground/Mountain) Snowfall.

NE Canada: Average Or Above Snow, Very Cold shots.

Central Canada: Colder than Avg.

Southern Canada: Colder than Avg.

Western Canada: Temps: Avg/ Mild. Snow: Normal/ Below.

The models may be struggling, they may see the trough as too much of a cut off feature, especially given the stronger signal this year given the Negative QBO for more occurrences of Northern Blocking during Winter 2014-15. So, everything now Hand in Hand, let’s Finally look at the Regional Forecasts for this Winter. Please Understand that this Forecast is dynamic, meaning that it will change quite frequently before the Winter begins as New information becomes available for this Winter 2015 :). Thank you very much for Reading my USA & Canada forecast, I hope you Enjoyed the Read And Prediction, Take Care, Kasim :D

PREVIOUS UPDATE: Welcome to my latest Seasonal update, viewing the all important Season. During July and this Summer in general, the region has experienced exceptionally cool and wet conditions, especially in the East, it is incredibly difficult to say what impacts this may have on the upcoming season this post is interested in, in terms of impacts on Snow totals etc, as those are understudied due to climate science being very early… To let you know below you will have a good idea of the outlook, although feel free to return on the 1st of August for a brand new update. I’m Calling For A Very Cold And Severe US Winter, With Lots Of Snow, this is Due to the Strong El Nino, QBO, and Other Parameters (Polar Vortex Winter 2014), It Will Be Extremely Cold For The North East Icy (Very) For The South, And Cool for the South West. Read On To Why I Am Forecasting These Severe Conditions Below (Referring To El Nino, And Other Factors)., Although If You Are Not One For Complicated Language, Here Is My Severe Outlook Image;, Thank you :)


After the UK Prediction? You can find that by clicking here. *Please Return on the 1st of August for my Official Round Up & Official Preliminary Update*, this is just a thoughts post. Thank You for your time. So, Will You Be Using Your Snow Shovel / Salt More Frequently This Year? ;) Find Out By Reading My Predictions Below (Even a 10 day is uncertain, please bear in mind) :) US Preliminary Outlook : Blog Update 1. Cold forecast 2015, Declining Position of the Polar Vortex for North Eastern Regions, Again. Slightly less Painful for Central areas. Winter 2014 / 2015 Western/Southern areas Cool and Unsettled (?). Read more below, also find a summary below which will wave the information to you. :


Introduction (early 2014-15 Thoughts can be Found Below) :)

Good evening folks. Thank you for tuning into KasimsWeatherWatcher’s latest Long Range Speculation for across the pond (USA). This is going to be a lengthy update, so grab a cuppa and take a seat whilst we look at some Significant drivers towards the upcoming “Festive Season” for the US. Trying to predict even up to a week ahead, is challenging for the even most experienced forecaster. So, as you can imagine, months ahead is practically impossible. As I say “forecasting long range is like guesstimating the 1000th word in Chinese whispers”. Anyway, this seasonal update will go into some detail viewing the El nino Southern Oscillation, Quasi - biennial Oscillation,  CFS, Winter Weather 2014 Models, etc, and try and see how things may shape up for the US. Last Season, the US Forecast here at KasimsWeatherWatcher was highly successful especially in the East (unlike the disaster UK). The El Nino pattern across the US held strong into late March 2014. But I suppose, the main question is, will the El Nino hold on? Read on to find out more to see whether the Polar Vortex will be delivering this Winter, it does look like the cold wave will be ever – evident.

ENSO Guidance.

A Weak Modoki and weak El Nino is foretasted through this Winter, December, January and February and into 2015. Due to the MJO in warmer weather teritory than usual, this may have the effect of feeding a moderate El Nino. There is a small chance of a very strong Modoki and normal El Nino during Autumn 2014. Throughout early this year the El Nino (little boy/ Christ child in Spanish), was weak. An El Nino is basically just a pool of warmer waters from Peru Coast into the Pacific. Now, as we’ve head through the year, a cold anomaly South of the El Nino area has developed. Will this push North, and Decay the El Nino away? Well, current forecasts suggests that this will happen but at a very slow rate. As you can see from the Chart below, the chance of a Moderate ELNino increases through 2014 and into 2015. This doesn’t mean we’ll see a Neutral ENSO, it more means that we’ll see a continued El Nino. This perhaps means, that the El Nino NorthEaster’ pattern experienced last time round will be just as extensive. Although, the El Nino is expected to become weaker as we head into 2014 – 2015, I don’t think what happens in the year after this year will have implications on the winter forecast that will have too much circumstances for the Season we’re looking at Today.  We may, again, see some more Severe Snow Storms for the North during Winter 2014-15, especially early on in the Season in the NE as the PV (Polar Vortex), pushes South.

Warm ENSO State.

3 Monthly Probability Of Neutral ENSO State.

 QBO Guidance; Canada less intense?.

Now, the QBO, is an NAO pointer really. The more negative the NAO, the less likely NE USA is to experience Very Cold, Snowy weather. The QBO, for Winter is looking like being more Neutral than positive, this may have implications in developing more Low Pressure across areas such as Calif, Texas etc, and Higher Pressure for Newfoundland and Surrounding areas. Although this is only an uncertain factor, and isn’t really strong at the moment, so I’m going to have to say that this is a very weak pointer. As far as the QBO goes, an Easterly QBO may favor high pressure scenario for the likes of Canada.

Quasi - biennial oscillation negative QBO.

Quasi – biennial oscillation Analysis shows perhaps Neutral QBO for the Preliminary 2014-15.

CFS, ENSO Forecast?

The CFS Got last year’s Forecast Correct. That’s not to say that it wont get it wrong this year. The CFS, Uncertainly, is going for a more La Nina pattern, interestingly. It puts low pressure over Texas, California, and other SW States, bringing cool, Wet conditions, with Snow for Northern Calif, and The West. It puts Eastern parts of the Mid-West, The North East of US and South East Canada and The South under slightly raised pressure, drier, Cold though, with little precipitation. This perhaps concurs with the idea of a weakened El Nino, and as you can see, even though we have high pressure across the NE, there is a trough over the Eastern Seaboard, this may fluctuate position, bringing Heavy Snowfall to Eastern US at times. Another factor I’ve had a very brief look at and will be able to bring you more information on the next update, is the SJA, which is also pointing for perhaps increased pressure over Central US and this may impact the winter forecast for the season of 2014-15.

CFS projections ,Neutral ENSO pattern for Weather.

CFS projections show more Neutral ENSO pattern.

Polar V; We See Bad Snow?

Viewing many factors, I think the Upcoming  may be a Cool, Wet one for South West States, but areas east of Chicago could get a battering of snow. With the Idea of a Strong Polar Vortex continuing as it has does in previous years, I think for the PV to become weak this Winter all of a sudden would be slightly abrupt, although even though a Weaker PV is forecasted this year, at times there is the potential for NorEasters to bring Heavy Snowfall, especially in December. The Far North East during 2015, may continue to see Snowy Outbreaks a lot. Central Areas, perhaps seeing a good deal of High Pressure, Near Normal Conditions, Near Normal to perhaps very slightly below average Snowfall especially across the Chicago regions. The South, seeing cooler conditions, and wet, Icy where the Temperature lines meet (perhaps Oklahoma and states to the East and West). The Snow Shovel, Gritters and Salt will be coming out more again, with short lived spells of Heavy Snow for Eastern US Seaboard into 2015, perhaps inland at times to.Although as I say, analogues for the current ENSO position include the late 70′s, and these were very cold and snowy for the South and East US. Perhaps raised snowfall for Western areas of the US on higher ground, this would result in a good Ski-Season for these areas, although for lower ground perhaps increased rain. Central US, as I say, looks like having some Good Snow/Cold, although perhaps ever so lightly less than the previous Season. But will it snow winter 2014? Although Don’t take this literally, the forecast can and will change, and this is only a Preliminary Outlook. Thanks for tuning in, the next update will be on the 1st of August  :). To give you an idea the next update ahead very shortly will include detailed forecast these specific regions of the area’s for the Winter; Chicago, North East, Ohio and many other regions included. Thank you for reading this winter weather outlook, for 2014-15. Acknowledgements: NOAA QBO Index. CFS NOAA.University of Berlin QBO index. NOAA Solar Cycle 24 prediction. IRI Columbia ENSO. 

Recommended Winter 2015 Snow Season Forecasts from Other Long Range Forecasters:

Farmers Almanac, LiveWeatherBlogs, AccuWeather, GavsWeatherVids.



102 Responses so far.

  1. Sharon says:

    Last month I read where an area of central California got an atmospheric river which is very rare for June. Isn’t in most cases an El Nino event?
    Also, I read where Hawaii is warmer and more humid than usual do to a lack of trade winds. Again, isn’t that a sign of an El Nino event?
    I’m from Los Angeles and tired of the dought we’ve been having.

    • Hi Sharon!
      Very interesting thoughts there- I may Blog this in the coming weeks if I get the chance and I’ll have another US El Nino/ Li Nina Update for 2013/2014 US Winter Forecast during the 2nd of August.
      During El Nino the Easterly trade winds become lighter, this is a Sign of El Nino.
      Atmospheric Rivers can occur in other parts of the World and don’t have to be caused by El Nino. Atmospheric Rivers often push into Western US shores during El Nino Phases.
      - I hope this partly answers your queries :).

      • Julie Generic says:

        atmo rivers occur all the time, our entire way of life revolves around them, as they bring us the majority of our precipital water vapor. i’m looking for info on the PNW right now…(see date & look up current storm system)

    • Jeffrey Brown says:

      Keep in mind ENSO is in La Nada conditions between -0.5 to +0.5 C. Week El Nino begins at >+0.05 C.

  2. Matt says:

    Great information (from what I could understand. Ha!) for what we have to work with so far. I, like Sharon, am concerned with southern California as we, unlike the East Coast, prefer our winters cold and wet so our local snow resorts can maintain a solid base layer. Last season saw an odd, late shift that caused it to remain somewhat wet but unseasonably warm, making local snow conditions pretty awful.
    If I’m reading your analysis and the data correctly, it would seem this year is to follow that same trend? Any clarification would be great. Thanks for your time!

    • Hi Matt!
      The current indication remains for the Coolest of US Winter 2013/14 Weather to be across the more Eastern & NE States areas with a Polar Low. – However Current guidance is Very Uncertain, if* it came off we could be Looking at a similar situation to last year in the Western US with Higher Pressure. :).

  3. Tottie says:

    Hello! I like in Oklahoma just south of oklahoma city. We have had a cooler summer than I am used to, and it has been great! Would it be safe to say our winter here will be more wet and cold, and maybe we will get an awesome blizzard?

    • Hi Tottie.
      I’m afraid Winter 2013/2014 is a Little far out to pick out Specific Details of Blizzard & Snow Events. If Oaklahoma Experienced a Cold & Wet Winter, Snow Events may be more Vigorous than a Mild & Wet Winter, on Average :).

  4. Tom says:

    I agree – I’ve been saying El Nino since December 2012, when I started looking at developing my own system for modelling Nino3.4 SST anomalies.

  5. Sharon says:

    Like Tom and Oklahoma, California has been having cooler than normal summer of which I love.
    The part of Los Angeles I live is a mile from the beach and we been running in the low 70′s this summer where last year we ran in the low to mid 80′s.
    There something going on when London is hotter than Los Angeles.
    Again I hope to God we get an el nino and not have to do with the drought we’ve been having the past few years. And make that a moderate El Nino.
    What is going on?

    • Hi Sharon, I’m not sure there’s much Going On which relates to Los Angeles being Cooler than London. It may* be a direct impact of Pressure, ie Low Pressure over the States, which builds a Week Jet off the Eastern Seaboard, thus allowing a Transient ridge to form across the British Isles.

  6. Tom says:

    Hi when are you going to post the next update? Thanks, Tom

  7. Ernie says:

    Hey Kasim,
    Does your forecast mean a colder winter for Northeast Fl and Southeast Ga. this year ?

  8. Tay says:

    ya i wont hold my breath till the time comes cuz im sure just like last yr something will change and i figure i check now jus to see where we at.

  9. hashim says:

    i live in the piedmont region in north Carolina what kind of a winter will we have here, im hopin for a bit warmer winter with more snow

  10. hashim says:


  11. Rudi says:

    What do you think of the lake effect snow for this winter? I live in upstate NY near Syracuse and I am wondering if we will get above normal snowfall and below normal temps for the upcoming winter.

  12. Angie says:

    I live in Manassas, VA close to the Washington, DC area and wanted what the outlook is for snow?

  13. John says:

    Good post man. Everyone, if you get a chance to come check out my site I have recently released my preliminary winter outlook


  14. Sharon says:


    Thank you for the good news update.

    Something is going on when the Pacific has had two tropical storms of which one hit Hawaii. The Atlantic hasn’t had much action going on.

    I don’t care what the models show in my country. I agree with you on the El Nino.

    For me, I see a very different weather pattern going on from previous past few years.

    Something is going on.

  15. Janchris says:

    I’m starting to agree though with the El Nino but right now I go Warm Neutral

  16. Janchris says:

    I just hope Washington State experiences at least 1-2 good storms you think we will? and I just don’t mean snowstorm any storm

  17. jon-paul says:

    i live in the eastern panhandle of west virginia at around 2000 ft above sea level the very cool temps of late seemed to be an early fall pattern i have been watching the oaks for acorn drops it seems they(the trees) have a grasp on the season change we had a very hot early summer however its now a fall pattern wet and cool with the el nino approaching moderate in forecast it could be a long and snow filled winter here

  18. Austin says:

    Hi Austin here, I’m from Virginia and last year was disappointing since the el nino/ borderline moms last year shifted and dissipated, I was wondering is there a slight high or above average snow/ stormtrak over the mid Atlantic. I want some SNOW.

  19. Tyler says:

    Hey, I just want to know if you know how much snow should be in Massachusetts in winter 2013-2014. More snow than last winter? Like Winter 2010-2011? Respond if you can, thanks.

  20. daniel says:

    Will north Carolina get a lot of snow for 2014

  21. Susan says:

    Not sure how reliable Farmer’s Almanac is, but it predicts a bad, cold, snowy winter if you have excess spiderwebs and more inside rodents, both of which we have had recently. I need to know if Winter 2013-2014 will be bad in Eastern TN and No, Georgia in USA. Personal reasons deem it necessary to hear what you predict. Last year was quite mild, with one small snow. Thanks for your reply.

  22. William says:

    Just want to make a comment… Last time Oklahoma had this much rainfall per year average, the 2007 ice storm ravaged the state in one of the worst ice storms in history… Repeat???

  23. Dee says:

    Hi, I just want to know if you can tell me anymore specifics about Florida ((Tampa Bay Area)?

  24. Tim Dantoni says:

    Seems to me the Mid Atlantic will see above normal precipitation during the winter of 2013-14. The one thing I look for is the amount of mushrooms in people”s yards, this year is way above average, have not seen anything like this since the summer of 2009. We all know what happen that winter.

  25. Zaid says:

    how much snow will d.c get hoping for a lot.

    • Heatblizzard says:

      I think basing on ocean conditions I have read and storm tracks this Spring/Summer as El Nino kicks in and based off of storm tracks last year. I feel 99.999% certain DC and the Mid Atlantic will have twice the average snowfall this year and places from New York city and northwards will have near normal snowpack.

      Maybe slightly above depending on jet stream factors but I believe the jet stream will get locked in on a certain location this winter and that location will get creamed with snowstorms which if it’s a major populated area will wipe out their snow removal budget fast once things get cranking.

      There will be long periods of settled but VERY cold temps for the entire East Coast down to Flordia followed by a few thaws breaking record high temps in between cold air masses leading people to think
      Winter is over when the worst is yet to come.

  26. Mark says:

    I’ve done study on climate for more years than will admit and we are back in a global cooling phase.

    I really like the forecasts on here. A lot of work has gone into them and I think the young man should become a meteorologist. He has the talent for it and seems to know what he’s doing and much of that is a gift in that you either have it or not. Everyone has a gift and some have it for this area.

    I’ll be checking back for updates on the forecast and thanks for posting the updates.


  27. Mark says:

    I expect a very cold winter to come especially in the central and Eastern US and Western Europe with hard freezes several times well down into FL. Even Atlanta should get some above average snows and just to the north where the climate line changes at Dalton, GA, from that area northward is going to get cold and stay cold. This means from TN to Canada with good amounts of snow but CPC has it dry over TN and that is just not going to happen so I’ll stick to this website for the updates and the forecaster gets more info and updates throughout fall season.

    Great website and will tell friends if they want weather forecasts to visit here to see good ones.

    Mark aka the original theweathernut,

    • Thank you Mark. Just viewed your website @ http://www.galacticcastaways.com/ ,Great site, and look forward to reading your Works, looks very interesting. I’m going to be releasing a new Update on this Page during the early part of September which will cover the forecast in much more Detail ie snow forecast & temperature detail for State specific regions. Excellent Website, thank you for your Comments and Good luck for the Future! :), Kasim.

  28. Tim Dantoni says:

    The current pattern we are in has not really changed since late winter. The southwest US has baked, Southeast very wet, the Midwest, Eastern US cooler then norm, with brief hot spells, followed by cool downs. The current pattern reminds me of the 1976 summer,with the Artic temperatures way below normal, sea ice the highest in the last ten years, this could be a very early start to winter east of the Mississippi. Some things need to change, like a weak el-nino, positive PNA. I like were we are at, there is something in the air thats tellimg me we are in for one heck of a winter. Tim Dantoni

  29. Kellie says:

    I live in Albuquerque, NM and from what I can tell, we may have a shot at some El Nino weather??? I know its a little early to tell but any info on NM would do wonders. Thanks!

  30. Tim Dantoni says:

    At this time any one predicting a weak el-nino for the winter of 2013-2014,sees some thing that I do not. Do not under estimate the Pacific when you live in the Mid Atlantic, there are so many things that correlate to good winters in the US, El-nino, La-Nino are just one of many key elements that go into making a winter forecast. I’m sticking with a more front sided winter for most locations East of the Mississippi. Predicting a very cold December, with above normal snow fall in the East. Any one trying to do a forecast for this winter right now is either real lucky, or real real good. Tim Dantoni

  31. Heatblizzard says:

    Edit> I read you’re post and didn’t know an El Nino was going on because Mark Nelson (Our Main weather guy) didn’t say anything on his blog about El Nino coming and none of the other weather sites are saying anything!

    Do you suppose that’s why it’s been so humid (dew point wise) this summer and no cooling off at night?. Sea breezes have been very weak here in the valleys this year yet we have had no continental air masses either like the weather is *stuck*.
    Late March thru April we scored some record highs here in Salem Oregon with a VERY sunny spring.

    As for summer we have had an above average of 90F days and nights above 60F with rather humid conditions for the area which makes me glad I don’t live in the MidWest like Ohio! Yuck!

    I am not sure the exact number but I think it’s like 20 90+ days while Portland has only a few days causing them to think the summer is normal.

    Let’s talk dewpoints.
    Dewpoints here have been in the upper 50s to mid 60s over half the time. Just two Thursdays ago at 3AM the Aurora Oregon Airport had a dewpoint of 65F and an outside air temp of 70F with humidity over 90 percent.

    When it’s humid AC doesn’t even help very much except to keep the indoor temps below 72F but does next to nothing for humidity which mold has been extremely high!

    It’s normal for humidity to be in the 80 percent range as we do have the Ocean influence but the dew points are in the mid to low 50s most of the time except a few *freak shows* that happen from time to time and not every year either.

    Over here Mark Nelson’s blog is the *big blog* followed by what’s his name up in Seattle Washington…………Steve Pierce I think.

    He (Mark) posted a dewpoint chart back in mid July showing how sticky things have been over a 10 year period for Portland Oregon airport (KPDX) and the last couple years have seen higher ones then usual despite no extreme heatwaves since 2008.

    By that time I felt lake slapping myself in the head because I briefly mentioned it a few times last summer before he did and got ignored and trolls started hijacking the blog ruining discussions which Mark tends to do nothing about!. :(

    I am not bashing him but he tends to wait till the very last minute before making a post like that *dew point chart* showing or *snow charts* the history of something almost as if he is being *controlled* what to say and when.

    Oh well.

  32. Heatblizzard says:

    There’s another guy with a large blog up in Seattle Washington that talks more about Climate patterns then Mark Nelson does and even came up with a *Seattle Excitement Index* SEI as Cliff Mass calls it.

    He rates it like this. http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-most-boring-winter-in-seattle.html

    Hereis one of his key posts.

    SWEI is calculated over the core of Seattle’s winter (Nov. 15-Feb 15) and is the sum of several components parts:

    (1) The number of days the temperature exceed 60F or drops below 25F.
    (2) The number of days with two inches or more of precipitation.
    (3) The number of days with sustained winds of 30 kt or more.
    (4) The number of months with more than 1 inch of snowfall.

    All inputs are from Seattle Tacoma Airport. I should note there are rigorous reasons for each of the above criteria. For example, many official groups (like this National Weather Service site) consider that hard freezes occur below 25F. Plants die. Local meteorologists note that wind damage often begins when sustained winds hit 30 kt or more. And local mayors confirm that even 1 inch over a month brings tension, excitement, and danger to local roadways. Folks, this is rigorous science.

    Here is his year rankings for Seattle Washington the far north! This winter is the most boring and uneventful based on the SWEI index described above. Actually, we are tied for most boring with 1963-1964. Specifically, 2012-13 and 1963-1964 had the lowest values of the SWEI index.

    Only old-timers who can remember back nearly FIFTY YEARS can wax nostalgic about such a boring winter. For the quantitative among you, here are the ranks of the top boring years (a lot of ties)

    19631115-19640215 1
    20121115-20130215 1
    20001115-20010215 2
    20011115-20020215 2
    20021115-20030215 2
    19601115-19610215 3
    19751115-19760215 3
    19821115-19830215 3
    19911115-19920215 3
    19971115-19980215 3
    19991115-20000215 3

    The most excitement Cliff Mass had was an extended period of low fog and 1 high tide event due to an astronomical feature and a medium low pressure. Whoopie! :(

  33. Jennifer says:

    I live in the Sierra Nevada Foothills in Northern California. We are about 55 miles west of Lake Tahoe. I see that are supposed to have below average temperatures. Will it be wetter than normal? If so, definitely more snow for us. We are right at the snow line already. What are your thoughts?

  34. Tim Dantoni says:

    To Heatblizzard, some other forums that I’m associated with have talked about a possible El-Nino this winter. Most of last winter the PNA was in negative values, this hampered cold air flowing into the eastern US, causing storm systems cutting to our west. Will wait to make a final call on this winter, but things are looking very favorable for an early onset to winter. Three things I look for during the fall is the build up of snow fall across Siberia. Number 2 where low pressure systems develop,and the certain tracks they take. Thirdly the expansion of sea ice in the artic during the fall. I truly believe that Europe has had 4 very cold winters due to the record sea ice in the Southern hemisphere. There are so many things in forecasting a winter, hopefully every one gets in on some snow this winter. My feeling of a very good winter for the east seems very real
    Sincerely yours,
    Tim Dantoni

  35. Vicky says:

    I need your opinion on booking a ski trip to Big Sky MT. Our ski group is going Feb 9th-16th & I would like to make it a longer trip by adding 3 days(going out Feb 6th). But is it even worth the extra money to go “out west”?(we are from the east coast,NJ) I’ve been trying to research the 2013/2014 predictions and it all says something different. Any thoughts?

  36. Mike says:

    What is the winter weather for 2014 going to be like in Rocky Point, N Y. This is the North Shore of Long Island on Long Island Sound.

  37. Tim Dantoni says:

    To Vicki, the beast will be in the East this winter. This is only one man’s opinion.
    Tim Dantoni

  38. cindy jordan says:

    i live in Danvilla VA how much snow we will see. its been lowa70s and 80s some 90s but not very very hot. my children love to see some snow. 2013/2014. are we going to have a bad winter this year in 2013-2014 alot of snow. thank you very much. cindy jordan in DANVILLE VA

  39. Tim Dantoni says:

    To Cindy, Danville averages about 4.8 inches of snow a year, this year could average slightly above normal snow fall, slightly cooler then normal temperatures. I am thinking the battle zone this winter will be slightly to your south, causing above normal sleet, freezing rain problems. I live in the north suburbs of md, which often gets more snow then you guys. You need only one good snow to make your winter, hopefully I am wrong. Still way to early to make a final call on this winter. The people who are in charge of this web- site do a great job of forecasting the weather.
    Tim Dantoni

  40. Sharon says:

    What is Los Angeles in for this winter?

  41. How much snow r we going to see around Long Island?? Also how cold will it be this winter??

  42. kellie jo says:

    i live in louisiana….i have been reading every site i can get my hands on for 2013/2014 fall/winter predictions….i just cant understand all the data language….from what i CAN understand it’s going to be a mild/wet season for us :( could you maybe clarify what i sould expect…i was so hoping for some really cold weather this season…also when will fall like temps desend on us here-

  43. Tim Dantoni says:

    Possible killing frost for parts of Northeast, Northern Mid Atlantic next weekend.As we sweat on Tuesday and Wednesday with temperatures near 90 degrees, a strong cold front will arrive on Thursday, setting the stage for a very cool weekend. Low temperatures could reach the upper 20′s in certain spots in the Notheast next weekend. This will be a big trans- action week , going to way above normal temperatures, to way below normal temperatures in a few days. Is this what our winter will look like, we shall see, wish we could have some decent rains.

  44. Phil says:

    Good Day Sir,
    I live in the Dallas area. Even though we did have one winter event on Christmas 2013, it was a relatively mild/boring winter because of the neutral ENSO. Should we expect the same for the upcoming winter because of the current neutral conditions? I am a winter precip enthusiast…weird, I know. Thanks

  45. Ernie says:

    Hey Kasim

    Do you still thank north fl and south ga will be very cold this winter? Hoping for some snow in north fl.

  46. Tim Dantoni says:

    Thomas, the upcoming winter should be colder then average, snowfall wise is a tuff call. In the early part of winter I
    see storm systems cutting to the west of the Mid Atlantic, then redeveloping off the Northeast coast. As winter progresses El-nino should get It’s act together giving the whole east coast the chance for major noreasters. The best chance of above normal snowfall will be in February thru mid March.Of course you are North of me, any redevelopment of storms in your area could enhance your snowfall. During this fall look at where low pressure systems develop, and what part of the East coast gets nailed. Remember Sandy last year, every storm after that hit in that general location.
    Tim Dantoni

  47. Tim Dantoni says:

    To Phil, neutral Enso do not always warrant a drier pattern in Texas. Remember Phil the Pacific sucked most of last year with a negative PNA, with a positive NAO for most of last winter. Right now I see the potential for a few more frozen precipitation events for your state. There are so many things to consider making a winter forecast. Here are some examples Siberian snow cover, NAO, MJO, PNA, LA-NINO-EL-NINO, AO, SUNSPOT CYCLES, LOW SUNSPOTS,WARMING OF OUR ATMOSPHERE. I have mentioned a few times about an early start to winter, might have to reconsider this idea. I do see more precipitation this winter for Texas.
    Tim Dantoni
    Some where in Northern MD

  48. When do you expect our first snow and frost????

  49. Tim Dantoni says:

    Thomas, if i had to bet on a first frost date I would go around October 7-10. I HAVE BEEN DOING WEATHER FOR A LONG TIME, THIS IS ONE OF THE HARDEST WINTERS TO FORECAST. There are no clear signs as of today. Snowfall wise I’ll hold off predicting the first snow, Thomas some weathermen miss snow calls the day before It’s suppose to happen.
    Tim Dantoni

  50. Sharon says:

    Please gus,

    Could anyone tell me what Southern California will get this winter?

  51. Sharon says:

    Oops, taht shuld read Please guys

  52. hashim says:

    Tim give your winter prediction for every region in the us

  53. Tim Dantoni says:

    To Hashim, I do not like to step on anybody’s toes on this board.If It’s okay I would release my winter outlook around the first week of November. This is a very hard winter to predict, no clear cut pieces etched in stone.Hashim there is a very eery feeling I get at night time, every thing is so dead, seems to me the bugs,birds, have already packed It in. If I went with what nature is suggesting, this could be a historic winter for certain parts of the US. I HAVE NO AGENDA, BUT LOVE THE WEATHER. Thanks Hashim for your expert inputs on the weather.
    Tim Dantoni

  54. Tim Dantoni says:

    Good morning every one, NAO-AO going negative, this could enhance a storm to develop some where along the east coast in the next ten days.Below average temperatures for the Mid West- Southeast, Mid Atlantic, Northeast, for the next 2-3 weeks. It never rains in Southern California, that part of the US could see above normal temperatures, with little precipitation for the next 2-3 weeks.
    Tim Dantoni
    somewhere in northern suburbs of MD

  55. savannah says:

    what is your outlook for Winter in West Virginia ?

  56. Tim Dantoni says:

    Good morning, the trends are every one’s friends. Northern hemisphere snow coverage is due to increase dramatically over the next 2 weeks. As i WROTE IN THE ABOVE ARTICLE THE NAO- AO will go negative, the PNA will go positive. For people in the east, this will mean cooler then normal temperatures, will an increased chance of a coastal storm to develop the first 2 weeks of October. For people on the west coast with the PNA GOING POSITIVE, this will mean a ridge will set up, causing above normal temperatures, with below normal precipitation. Recap, as we head into October every one east of the mississippi will have below normal temperatures, with an increased chances of a coastal development. Keep jackets in hand were going to need them.

    Tim Dantoni

  57. hashim says:

    thanx tim I have also seen spider and crickets goin crazy spider entering house more and more crickets too I agree I think it will be a historic winter but we will all see on December 21st when the winter starts astronomically.

  58. Tim Dantoni says:

    Some negatives and positives on the 2013-2014 winter
    Positives- northern hemisphere snow coverage above norm compared to last year.2 Accu weather predicting a mild and dry east coast for this winter, they have not been right for a long time, that’s a positive.3 sst’s are warming El- NINO COULD BE A FACTOR. 4 Very very low sunspot activity, this tells me sun is not putting out much energy. NAO COULD BE NEGATIVE FOR PARTS OF OUR WINTER.
    Negatives- PNA will stay negative for the entire winter, the pacific has been a night mare for the last three years, without a positive PNA, STORM SYSTEMS WILL TRACK TO OUR WEST GIVING THE MID WEST MOST OF THE SNOWS. The famous Aleutian ridge must migrate to the north.
    Recap as of today, I see the middle of the country getting most of the action, East coast milder then normal, with below normal precip, West coast continued above normal temperatures,Pacific northwest above normal precipitation. Things can change do not give up, this is my thinking as of today for our winter.
    Tim Dantoni

  59. Tim Dantoni says:

    To Kasim, thank you for the write up, very informative. This coming tropical storm will be very interesting to follow, in many ways this sets the mark on where storm systems go during the winter. Northern hemisphere snow cover is very impressive at this stage of the game, lets see in a few weeks how this looks. Kasim, the more I look details the more back loaded this winter appears to be. I’m still afraid of the PNA, THE PACIFIC SUCKS RIGHT NOW, VERY HAPPY WE ARE IN OCTOBER WITH A POSITIVE NAO- NEGATIVE PNA THEN IN JANUARY THE EAST COAST WOULD BE IN BLOW TORCH CITY. Your thoughtS about the PNA at this time. I busted on my call for an early October cold spell, hopefully things will start to change by Halloween.
    Tim Dantoni

  60. hashim says:

    one website to see history of arctic oscillation theres much more data here too on nao and pna and how the ao has been so far this year

  61. hashim says:

    oops website wont post

  62. hashim says:

    well for anyone who wants the site its the noaa site

  63. Tim Dantoni says:

    Comments on early winter, I like seeing low pressure systems developing to our south, then spinning slowly off the Mid Atlantic coast. Hopefully this is an early indications of things to come. What I’m seeing for early winter are warm spells followed by cool downs. Then the fronts stall out down to our south, low pressure systems develop along the front, then ride up the coast. At this point do not see the southern jet stream involved in any early activity. This will mean any snows will come with frontal bounderies stalling to our south, the development of low pressure along the fronts. This will be in my judgement in how way get snows this early winter. The PNA IS STILL IN NEGATIVE PHASE, THE MJO HAS BEEN STUCK IN PHASE 6 FOR THE LAST 2 MONTHS, BUT LOOKS TO BE GOING INTO PHASE 7-8, THIS IS A GOOD SIGN FOR COOLER WEATHER FOR THE EAST COAST. i’M REALLY IMPRESSED WITH SNOW COVERAGE IN NORTHERN HEMISPHERE AT THIS TIME, LET’S SEE HOW THAT CONTINUES. So in a nutshell most of the action will be to our West, until the PNA relaxes.
    Tim Dantoni

  64. Tim Dantoni says:

    Comments on our weather, NAO PROJECTED TO GO WAY WAY NEGATIVE AROUND OCTOBER 14-18. When we have a NAO this negative one thing you can be sure of, somewhere along the east coast between the 14-18 there will be a coastal storm development. At this time no models are indicating a storm during this time period, but when the NAO DIPS THIS LOW DO NOT BE CAUGHT OFF GUARD. The current NAO FORECAST TREND NEXT WEEK WILL BE LOWER THEN WHEN SANDY HIT LAST YEAR. Keep in mind this is only one man’s thought’s.
    Tim Dantoni

  65. German Camou says:

    I want to know if we have winter rainy this 2013-2014 in california,arizona and northwest of Mexico sonora state, I live in Nogales Az.

  66. Sharon says:

    I also want to know what Southern California is in for this winter.

    Please, one of you guys answer that question.


  67. give me a estimate on how much snow we will see in east meadow ny

  68. Tim Dantoni says:

    To Sharon, can not give you anything this far out for winter, but for next 2 months near to slightly above normal temperatures, with below normal precipitation.
    To Thomas, above normal precipitation, slightly below normal temperatures,looks like wild swings in temperatures. Snowfall above normal, one big one in December, above normal second half of winter. The one in December will give a better detailed summary by mid November.
    Tim Dantoni
    Somewhere northern subburbs of MARYLAND

  69. Is there going to be a big snowstorm on feb 1-3 for Long Island???

  70. cody stratton says:

    i live In Washington state will this winter be warmer then last year or colder I been herein about a neutral phase with means more storms?? im confused

  71. T.C. says:

    Kasim, I like your forecasting.I live 65miles north of Springfield,Mo. Do you predict warmer or colder than last yr? This year I do realize it’s hard to predict. So far we have had pretty nice days with tomorrow being 70, nites have been a bit cool. No actual frost yet. I prefer warmer winters myself. So what are your feelings for now, I realize it’s early, but give me some hope lol. :)

  72. Sharon says:

    Again since my July 9th post, the weather has be crazy.

    Last week I read where the east coast of the US had the fewest hurricane in 30 years.

    Pacific Mexico has been hit with tropical storm afer another with a hurricane scheduled for this week.

    As for Los Angeles we’ve had a typical October with one Santa Ana after another: hot and dry. We also had one day of rain of which I loved.

    What’s going on with the east Atlantic coast being inactive with hurricanes and east coast Pacific so active?

    Australia is having a drought.

    I don’t care what other websites say and I’m no expert but I’m with Kasim and I think we’re going to have an El Nino event.

    Please God, listen to Kasim. I’m tired of the drought

    And for you Cody, I’m tired of your state keeping all the rain. Southern
    califoria would like to take it from you. lol


  73. Tim Dantoni says:

    Comments on our winter, It’s becoming more apparent that we are going into a weak EL-NINO especially the second half of our winter. Looks like southern California, southern plains, southeast, mid atlantic, northeast, should average above normal precipitation during the second half of winter. Northern hemisphere snow cover is okay, ice coverage is very impressive compared to last 6 years. This enhances our chances of colder then normal temperatures east of the mississippi during the winter months. I still see wild swings in temperatures over a large area of the mid-west, east coast, southeast during the upcoming winter. Leaning towards ABOVE NORMAL SNOWFALL FOR LARGE PORTIONS OF THE EAST COAST. Main concern for the southeast could be very bad ice storms. This is an early preview.
    Tim Dantoni

  74. German Camou says:

    We need to much Rainfall for this Winter 2013-2014 in the NorthWest of México especifically central-north part of Sonora State in Mexico would Kasim tell me about weather that we will have ?

  75. Sharon says:

    The Los Angeles area has been hit with one high presure system after another.

    I wouldn’t be suprised if this was the hottest November on record.

    We’ve been in the 80′s and I do believe it was 95 yesterday in downtown Los Angeles.

    We need relief from the hot and dry weather.

  76. will long island have a cold, snowy, and, stormy winter or a dry, warm, and, calm winter???

  77. Tim Dantoni says:


  78. Tim Dantoni says:

    Good evening, thoughts about Thanksgiving week, as I stated in above article Thanksgiving travel could be a nightmare over the entire interior Mid- Atlantic, Northeast, Higher terrain of the Southeast during the Tuesday- Thursday time frame. Please keep in mind this storm is still 5 days away, some things could change. One thing is for certain with-out the NAO BEING NEGATIVE, NOT A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR NORTH, IT IS GOING TO BE VERY HARD TO GET A LARGE SNOW -STORM INTO THE BIG CITIES OF THE MID- ATLANTIC, NORTHER EAST STATES. One thing is for certain It will get very cold after the storm passes, I feel colder then what models are saying, BLACK FRIDAY WILL BE VERY COLD OVER MOST OF THE EASTERN US
    Tim Dantoni, some where in northern burbs of MD

  79. Sharon says:

    What is with Southern California being so hot this winter

    We’re about 10-20 degrees above normal.

    We’ve been getting one high pressure system after another. And right now we have 3 of them side by side.

    I don’t appreciate it being in the 80′s on Christmas DAY>

    Happy New Year everyone.


  80. Max says:

    Will eastern kansas and western missouri (Kansas City) and surrounding areas get an above average snow season? Im hoping i can make some money by snow shoveling.

  81. Just Me says:

    Whats the winter looking like in eastern kentucky? Im hoping for another snowy one!

  82. Veronica says:

    Hello! Can you be more specific on Oklahoma winter please. Southern Oklahoma doesn’t necessarily get the same weather as Northern Oklahoma. So do you think that maybe you could be more specific about what you think the winter might look like for Tulsa and Okmulgee? Thank you.

  83. Heather black says:

    What are the temps looking like for michigan eastern upper peninsula this winter? It was awful last winter and I’m hoping for just a little warmer.

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