Get Your US Winter Weather Forecast For 2014-15 here :) Don’t Forget Projections By State Below. A Brutal Winter Forecast For The East? Looks Likely. The El Nino, Solar, QBO Significant Impacts For Winter Forecast 2014-15. Below you will find Detailed Analysis of the Drivers Then Below that You’ll Find A Detailed Summary By – State :) Will the El Nino continue into December? Click Here – “US El Nino Prediction” for the Latest U.S Weather El Nino Atmospheric Update – The El Nino is Still On Course?
The Poll Results Are Below & I Will Run it Again Next Month. It Shows that 40% See a Weak El Nino by Winter, 39% See a Moderate El Nino, and 21% see a Strong El Nino for Winter Forecast. It seems we Are Unlikely to Experience a Strong El Nino, a Weak Or Moderate Event Looks Likely Now :)
Detailed Non-Surface (In depth) Winter Factor Analysis, to Produce the Consensus for Winter 2014-15. Including Solar Activity, El Nino, QBO, Analogue Years, and Experimental Models :)
The Next Update will be on the 1st of September. Now, this Update is Much, Much More “Certain”, Than The Previous Update, although still needs to be taken with a great deal of salt as this prediction goes into 2015, which is next year… The Previous Update Can Be Found Below. Okay. Now, Let’s Just Take A Second To Analyze the Latest Global Conditions. Starting Off With Sea Surface Temperatures and how they may impact the Global set up and pressure patterns during December, January and February :).
Sea Surface Temps, Analogues And What We Can Gather for Winter Weather:
Analogue Years Interestingly (Are All Severe), Close to the Prediction ENSO for 2014-15 Winter, For Dec/Jan/Feb include: 76/77, 77/78, 02/03, 09/10. Outcome of those Winters; Either Cold or Severely Cold, with Heavy Snow at times. Yes, when it comes to Sea Surface Temperatures, or, “According” To the Predicted ENSO (El Nino) 2015 and Moderate Modoki (Which is a Central Based, Pacific Based, El Nino), We are Likely to see another Very Cold and Snowy Winter during 2014 / 15. Taking a Look at the Sea Surface Temperatures for 28.07.2014, you can See, it’s Looking again, a Little Weaker Signal There, the El Nino is a Little Weaker which implies 2 things a) The El Nino for Winter 2014- 15 will be Weak, or the El Nino will “reload” into Winter 2014-15, at the moment probably a mix, a Weak El Nino Forecast, Predicted for the Winter Season (0.8-1.0C), for Winter. I think the El Nino will still develop though. Take a look at what happened during the year of 2002 & 2009. 2002 and 2009 Both Had a Huge Modoki El Nino Development later in the Year, leading to Incredibly Severe Winters for the USA. Very Interesting that.. Now. A “Weak” Modoki, and a “Weak” El Nino may be the Occurrence of Winter 2014-2015. As the ENSO Is forecasted to Increase, and Intensify later this Year. Let’s talk about some Projections for the ENSO Then. The CFS Version 2, As You Can See Below Does In Fact agree that Regions 1+2 (Southern Part of the El Nino Area), are forecast to Continue Around Average for Winter 2014-15, Similar to What they Are now. I have to Highly Credit the CFS for it’s July Prediction (Declining El Nino), But this Doesn’t mean it will get it’s Next Prediction Right, not at all. And as you can see it Increases & Intensifies the El Nino for Regions 3+4, again this is Similar to a Modoki, which Increases Confidence of a Weak El Nino (0.5-1.0C above average), and a Weak Modoki for the Winter, as the Majority of the Forecas Warm ENSO is located further North compared to a Typical El Nino. Here are those CFS 1/2 And 3/4.
Now. I have Combined the ENSO Projections, and the Analogues for this Winter to produce My Thoughts on what the El Nino Area may Look Like during Winter. As you can see, it’s a Weak El Nino in the 3+4 region and a Weak Central Based El Nino. This would bring Yes, the East of the US, and Canada, Overall Cold but Interspersed Very Cold and Snowy Weather for 2014-15, as a Weak El Nino pattern often does produce for Eastern U.S, and may well do for 2015 alike these anomaly years, although keep tuned for further analysis over September.
Idea Of Nino During the Upcoming, & Impacts :) ;
Now, as you can see the El Nino shown is not the “Strongest” of all. It’s actually a fairly weak El Nino, and is expected to become weaker by next April. Although combined with other Factors it Is possible to produce a Very Severely Cold Winter with above average Snow for the East (although Yes, this Set up would bring a Near Normal to Mild Winter for the West), not just on the El Nino alone. So, let’s take a Detailed view at some Other Factors 2014-2015 style.
Solar Activity; Generally Moderate, Impacts (?).
There’s really one big Caveat in terms of Solar, etc. The energy from the Sun does not always transfer to increase the NAO, as the way the Magnetic fields interact with the Sun’s Rays etc is not known (at least a Forecaster of my Credibility), Although what I can say is that Generally Solar Activity will be Moderate. Now during our ENSO analogue Winter’s, 09/10 saw Very Low Solar Activity. 02/03 saw Similar Levels to those Forecast this Winter, Generally Moderate following a Peak. And 02/03 was Very Severe for the East Coast. This leads me to Think that Moderate Solar Activity can Inflate the Trough over the East US, During Winter 2014-15, And this Indeed Alters My Forecast (Increase the NAO), and Bring us Cooler Weather, snow etc, for Eastern Areas.
The Forecast is for a *Sharp Decrease* in Solar Activity through the Winter Though, from around 60 sun spots to perhaps Only 40 spots on the disk By the End of the Winter. This means that the more Severe Conditions may Set up late in the Winter, perhaps during February or March. Of course it’s a little bit far out to be Certain about the natural “Fluctuation” of the Sun, although I do have a Rough Idea. Notice I talk a little more about this idea of “a Sharp Decrease”, again here. I can tell you though the Double Peak experienced in 2011-13 had Huge impacts over the 13-14 Winter for the USA & Canada, it is less likely for 2015.
The Quasi Biennial Oscillation and It’s Impacts on Outlook:
Ahh, the QBO & Winter. The “Quassi Biennial Oscillation”, Originally Discovered by the Met Office, is a 4 Pattern Oscillating between Easterly and Westerly direction in the Tropical Stratosphere. An Easterly QBO (Which is likely during the Winter of 2014-15) does Increase the Risk of Northern Blocking, to Forecast Colder conditions for the Mid-Latitudes, although the US Can Experience Both Forecast Possibilities during a Negative QBO during the Cold Months, a Negative QBO can lead to less Cold & Snowy conditions at times, although because of Mr 2014-15 Winter’s Uncertainty it’s Very Difficult to predict the Outcome, and a Westerly QBO can work to Inhibit Northern Blocking, a Westerly QBO in the Previous Winter Brought Severe Cold US Weather. What does Northern Blocking mean for us? Well, it can mean Average Winter conditions for Canada on the Whole, although Periods of Cold and Snowy weather for the US.
During the QBO being Negative (which Is what’s forecasted for Winter 2014-15), the Cold doesn’t last forever, it often comes and goes an can leave huge gaps between very significant severe weather. Take the Winter of 10/11 as an Example, not always Cold. With an Easterly QBO, this May help produce at times more in the way of High pressure for the far NW, due to the affiliation of High Pressure connecting with the El Nino high, perhaps this year powered by more warm Sea Temps for NE Pacific. So, this does lead me to Think perhaps not as “Severe” going into 2015 for the far NW of the area. Here is that QBO prediction. Analogue ENSO years of 02/03 and 09/10 both had Declining QBO through the Winter, and is likely to again for 2014. Next Up, is the Seasonal Models. I Personally find it a challenge to use Seasonal Weather models with any Confidence when doing such a long range Forecast.
South Korean & CFS; No Surprise.
The South Korean model is highlighting an extensively Blocked (Cold) Period for the East of the US, Milder to the West, for November, December and January. This Does support the Ideas put forward. Although Interestingly, the South Korean makes things Very Cold for the Very Southerly Most States. What the CFS does for NDJ is Equally As Alarming As Seen Below. Now, does this mean that the far South will see an Extremely wet and Cold Winter for 2014-15, Snow? It’s Quite Uncertain, although yes it Does make me Wonder what conditions that part of the World will experience during 2014-2015…
Conclusion For The Individual States for the Forecast :) ;
Florida; Temperature: Cold. Bulk Precipitation: Sleet or Rain. with some Ice, Above average Precipitation (Grotty Weather).
South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi; Temperature: Cool. Bulk Precipitation: Sleet or Snow on High Grounds, Icy in the North. Above average.
Texas; Temperature: Cool, Less Cool for West. Bulk Precipitation: Above Average.
Arizona & New Mexico; Temperature: Slightly Below. Precipitation: Near Normal, Above in East.
North Carolina, Tennessee, Arkansas: Temperature: Cold. Bulk Precipitation: Above Average Snow.
Oklahoma, Kansas: Bulk Precipitation: Heavy Snow. Temperature: Cold. Nice weather for winter fans.
Missouri, Iowa, Illinois Cold, Snowy. Kentucky, Indiana, Ohio, Pennsylvania: Temperature: Below. Snow: Average.
Wisconsin, Michigan: Temperature: Well Below. Snow: Slightly Above.
Virginia & West, Delaware, Maryland & New York; Temperature: Well Below. Snow: Well Above.
Vermont, New Hampshire, Maine, Rhode Island, Connecticut, New Jersey: Snow: Above, – Well Above. Temp: Slightly Below.
Other Central NW’rn States (Surrounding Wyoming). Snow: Slightly Above. Temp: Slightly Below.
Far NW’rn States ie Surrounding Oregon: Temp: Normal. Precipitation: Slightly Below – Normal. Snow: Slightly Less Than Average.
California: Temps: Near Normal – Slightly Below. Snow: Near normal (High ground/Mountain) Snowfall.
NE Canada: Average Or Above Snow, Very Cold shots.
Central Canada: Colder than Avg.
Southern Canada: Colder than Avg.
Western Canada: Temps: Avg/ Mild. Snow: Normal/ Below.
The models may be struggling, they may see the trough as too much of a cut off feature, especially given the stronger signal this year given the Negative QBO for more occurrences of Northern Blocking during Winter 2014-15. So, everything now Hand in Hand, let’s Finally look at the Regional Forecasts for this Winter. Please Understand that this Forecast is dynamic, meaning that it will change quite frequently before the Winter begins as New information becomes available for this Winter 2015 :). Thank you very much for Reading my USA & Canada forecast, I hope you Enjoyed the Read And Prediction, Take Care, Kasim :D
PREVIOUS UPDATE: Welcome to my latest Seasonal update, viewing the all important Season. During July and this Summer in general, the region has experienced exceptionally cool and wet conditions, especially in the East, it is incredibly difficult to say what impacts this may have on the upcoming season this post is interested in, in terms of impacts on Snow totals etc, as those are understudied due to climate science being very early… To let you know below you will have a good idea of the outlook, although feel free to return on the 1st of August for a brand new update. I’m Calling For A Very Cold And Severe US Winter, With Lots Of Snow, this is Due to the Strong El Nino, QBO, and Other Parameters (Polar Vortex Winter 2014), It Will Be Extremely Cold For The North East Icy (Very) For The South, And Cool for the South West. Read On To Why I Am Forecasting These Severe Conditions Below (Referring To El Nino, And Other Factors)., Although If You Are Not One For Complicated Language, Here Is My Severe Outlook Image;, Thank you :)
After the UK Prediction? You can find that by clicking here. *Please Return on the 1st of August for my Official Round Up & Official Preliminary Update*, this is just a thoughts post. Thank You for your time. So, Will You Be Using Your Snow Shovel / Salt More Frequently This Year? ;) Find Out By Reading My Predictions Below (Even a 10 day is uncertain, please bear in mind) :) US Preliminary Outlook : Blog Update 1. Cold forecast 2015, Declining Position of the Polar Vortex for North Eastern Regions, Again. Slightly less Painful for Central areas. Winter 2014 / 2015 Western/Southern areas Cool and Unsettled (?). Read more below, also find a summary below which will wave the information to you. :
Introduction (early 2014-15 Thoughts can be Found Below) :)
Good evening folks. Thank you for tuning into KasimsWeatherWatcher’s latest Long Range Speculation for across the pond (USA). This is going to be a lengthy update, so grab a cuppa and take a seat whilst we look at some Significant drivers towards the upcoming “Festive Season” for the US. Trying to predict even up to a week ahead, is challenging for the even most experienced forecaster. So, as you can imagine, months ahead is practically impossible. As I say “forecasting long range is like guesstimating the 1000th word in Chinese whispers”. Anyway, this seasonal update will go into some detail viewing the El nino Southern Oscillation, Quasi - biennial Oscillation, CFS, Winter Weather 2014 Models, etc, and try and see how things may shape up for the US. Last Season, the US Forecast here at KasimsWeatherWatcher was highly successful especially in the East (unlike the disaster UK). The El Nino pattern across the US held strong into late March 2014. But I suppose, the main question is, will the El Nino hold on? Read on to find out more to see whether the Polar Vortex will be delivering this Winter, it does look like the cold wave will be ever – evident.
A Weak Modoki and weak El Nino is foretasted through this Winter, December, January and February and into 2015. Due to the MJO in warmer weather teritory than usual, this may have the effect of feeding a moderate El Nino. There is a small chance of a very strong Modoki and normal El Nino during Autumn 2014. Throughout early this year the El Nino (little boy/ Christ child in Spanish), was weak. An El Nino is basically just a pool of warmer waters from Peru Coast into the Pacific. Now, as we’ve head through the year, a cold anomaly South of the El Nino area has developed. Will this push North, and Decay the El Nino away? Well, current forecasts suggests that this will happen but at a very slow rate. As you can see from the Chart below, the chance of a Moderate ELNino increases through 2014 and into 2015. This doesn’t mean we’ll see a Neutral ENSO, it more means that we’ll see a continued El Nino. This perhaps means, that the El Nino NorthEaster’ pattern experienced last time round will be just as extensive. Although, the El Nino is expected to become weaker as we head into 2014 – 2015, I don’t think what happens in the year after this year will have implications on the winter forecast that will have too much circumstances for the Season we’re looking at Today. We may, again, see some more Severe Snow Storms for the North during Winter 2014-15, especially early on in the Season in the NE as the PV (Polar Vortex), pushes South.
QBO Guidance; Canada less intense?.
Now, the QBO, is an NAO pointer really. The more negative the NAO, the less likely NE USA is to experience Very Cold, Snowy weather. The QBO, for Winter is looking like being more Neutral than positive, this may have implications in developing more Low Pressure across areas such as Calif, Texas etc, and Higher Pressure for Newfoundland and Surrounding areas. Although this is only an uncertain factor, and isn’t really strong at the moment, so I’m going to have to say that this is a very weak pointer. As far as the QBO goes, an Easterly QBO may favor high pressure scenario for the likes of Canada.
CFS, ENSO Forecast?
The CFS Got last year’s Forecast Correct. That’s not to say that it wont get it wrong this year. The CFS, Uncertainly, is going for a more La Nina pattern, interestingly. It puts low pressure over Texas, California, and other SW States, bringing cool, Wet conditions, with Snow for Northern Calif, and The West. It puts Eastern parts of the Mid-West, The North East of US and South East Canada and The South under slightly raised pressure, drier, Cold though, with little precipitation. This perhaps concurs with the idea of a weakened El Nino, and as you can see, even though we have high pressure across the NE, there is a trough over the Eastern Seaboard, this may fluctuate position, bringing Heavy Snowfall to Eastern US at times. Another factor I’ve had a very brief look at and will be able to bring you more information on the next update, is the SJA, which is also pointing for perhaps increased pressure over Central US and this may impact the winter forecast for the season of 2014-15.
Polar V; We See Bad Snow?
Viewing many factors, I think the Upcoming may be a Cool, Wet one for South West States, but areas east of Chicago could get a battering of snow. With the Idea of a Strong Polar Vortex continuing as it has does in previous years, I think for the PV to become weak this Winter all of a sudden would be slightly abrupt, although even though a Weaker PV is forecasted this year, at times there is the potential for NorEasters to bring Heavy Snowfall, especially in December. The Far North East during 2015, may continue to see Snowy Outbreaks a lot. Central Areas, perhaps seeing a good deal of High Pressure, Near Normal Conditions, Near Normal to perhaps very slightly below average Snowfall especially across the Chicago regions. The South, seeing cooler conditions, and wet, Icy where the Temperature lines meet (perhaps Oklahoma and states to the East and West). The Snow Shovel, Gritters and Salt will be coming out more again, with short lived spells of Heavy Snow for Eastern US Seaboard into 2015, perhaps inland at times to.Although as I say, analogues for the current ENSO position include the late 70′s, and these were very cold and snowy for the South and East US. Perhaps raised snowfall for Western areas of the US on higher ground, this would result in a good Ski-Season for these areas, although for lower ground perhaps increased rain. Central US, as I say, looks like having some Good Snow/Cold, although perhaps ever so lightly less than the previous Season. But will it snow winter 2014? Although Don’t take this literally, the forecast can and will change, and this is only a Preliminary Outlook. Thanks for tuning in, the next update will be on the 1st of August :). To give you an idea the next update ahead very shortly will include detailed forecast these specific regions of the area’s for the Winter; Chicago, North East, Ohio and many other regions included. Thank you for reading this winter weather outlook, for 2014-15. Acknowledgements: NOAA QBO Index. CFS NOAA.University of Berlin QBO index. NOAA Solar Cycle 24 prediction. IRI Columbia ENSO.
Recommended Winter 2015 Snow Season Forecasts from Other Long Range Forecasters:
Farmers Almanac, LiveWeatherBlogs, AccuWeather, GavsWeatherVids.