US Winter Weather 2014-2015 :) 2015 Predictions, Snow/Temperature) + Forecast :) Weak/Modoki. Interesting Analogue years.
Welcome. Return on the 1st of August for my Latest Thoughts/ *Full Forecast*. I’m Calling For A Very Cold And Severe US Winter, With Lots Of Snow, this is Due to the Strong El Nino, QBO, and Other Parameters (Polar Vortex Winter 2014), It Will Be Extremely Cold For The North East Icy (Very) For The South, And Cool for the South West. Read On To Why I Am Forecasting These Severe Conditions Below (Referring To El Nino, And Other Factors)., Although If You Are Not One For Complicated Language, Here Is My Severe Outlook Image;, Thank you
After the UK Prediction? You can find that by clicking here. *Please Return on the 1st of August for my Official Round Up & Official Preliminary Update*, this is just a thoughts post. Thank You for your time. So, Will You Be Using Your Snow Shovel / Salt More Frequently This Year? Find Out By Reading My Predictions Below (Even a 10 day is uncertain, please bear in mind)
US Preliminary Outlook : Blog Update 1. Cold forecast 2015, Declining Position of the Polar Vortex for North Eastern Regions, Again. Slightly less Painful for Central areas. Winter 2014/15 Western/Southern areas Cool and Unsettled (?). Read more below, also find a summary below which will wave the information to you. :
Introduction (early 2015 Thoughts can be Found Below)
Good evening folks. Thank you for tuning into KasimsWeatherWatcher’s latest Long Range Speculation for across the pond (USA). This is going to be a lengthy update, so grab a cuppa and take a seat whilst we look at some Significant drivers towards the upcoming “Festive Season” for the US. Trying to predict even up to a week ahead, is challenging for the even most experienced forecaster. So, as you can imagine, months ahead is practically impossible. As I say “forecasting long range is like guesstimating the 1000th word in Chinese whispers”. Anyway, this seasonal update will go into some detail viewing the El nino Southern Oscillation, Quasi - biennial Oscillation, CFS, Winter Weather 2014 Models, etc, and try and see how things may shape up for the US. Last Season, the US Forecast here at KasimsWeatherWatcher was highly successful especially in the East (unlike the disaster UK). The El Nino pattern across the US held strong into late March 2014. But I suppose, the main question is, will the El Nino hold on? Read on to find out more to see whether the Polar Vortex will be delivering this Winter, it does look like the cold wave will be ever – evident.
A Weak Modoki and weak El Nino is foretasted through December, January and February and into 2015. Due to the MJO in warmer weather teritory than usual, this may have the effect of feeding a moderate El Nino. There is a small chance of a very strong Modoki and normal El Nino during Autumn 2014. Throughout early this year the El Nino (little boy/ Christ child in Spanish), was weak. An El Nino is basically just a pool of warmer waters from Peru Coast into the Pacific. Now, as we’ve head through the year, a cold anomaly South of the El Nino area has developed. Will this push North, and Decay the El Nino away? Well, current forecasts suggests that this will happen but at a very slow rate. As you can see from the Chart below, the chance of a Moderate ELNino increases through 2014 and into 2015. This doesn’t mean we’ll see a Neutral ENSO, it more means that we’ll see a continued El Nino. This perhaps means, that the El Nino NorthEaster’ pattern experienced last time round will be just as extensive. Although, the El Nino is expected to become weaker as we head into 2014 – 2015, I don’t think what happens in the year after this year will have implications on the winter forecast that will have too much circumstances for the Season we’re looking at Today. We may, again, see some more Severe Snow Storms for the North during Winter 2014, especially early on in the Season in the NE as the PV (Polar Vortex), pushes South.
QBO Guidance; Canada less intense?.
Now, the QBO, is an NAO pointer really. The more negative the NAO, the less likely NE USA is to experience Very Cold, Snowy weather. The QBO, for Winter is looking like being more Neutral than positive, this may have implications in developing more Low Pressure across areas such as Calif, Texas etc, and Higher Pressure for Newfoundland and Surrounding areas. Although this is only an uncertain factor, and isn’t really strong at the moment, so I’m going to have to say that this is a very weak pointer. As far as the QBO goes, an Easterly QBO may favor high pressure scenario for the likes of Canada.
The CFS Got last year’s Forecast Correct. That’s not to say that it wont get it wrong this year. The CFS, Uncertainly, is going for a more La Nina pattern, interestingly. It puts low pressure over Texas, California, and other SW States, bringing cool, Wet conditions, with Snow for Northern Calif, and The West. It puts Eastern parts of the Mid-West, The North East of US and South East Canada and The South under slightly raised pressure, drier, Cold though, with little precipitation. This perhaps concurs with the idea of a weakened El Nino, and as you can see, even though we have high pressure across the NE, there is a trough over the Eastern Seaboard, this may fluctuate position, bringing Heavy Snowfall to Eastern US at times. Another factor I’ve had a very brief look at and will be able to bring you more information on the next update, is the SJA, which is also pointing for perhaps increased pressure over Central US and this may impact the winter forecast 2014-2015.
Polar for 2015; We See Bad Snow?
Viewing many factors, I think the Upcoming may be a Cool, Wet one for South West States, but areas east of Chicago could get a battering of snow. With the Idea of a Strong Polar Vortex continuing as it has does in previous years, I think for the PV to become weak this Winter all of a sudden would be slightly abrupt, although even though a Weaker PV is forecasted this year, at times there is the potential for NorEasters to bring Heavy Snowfall, especially in December. The Far North East during 2015, may continue to see Snowy Outbreaks a lot. Central Areas, perhaps seeing a good deal of High Pressure, Near Normal Conditions, Near Normal to perhaps very slightly below average Snowfall especially across the Chicago regions. The South, seeing cooler conditions, and wet, Icy where the Temperature lines meet (perhaps Oklahoma and states to the East and West). The Snow Shovel, Gritters and Salt will be coming out more again, with short lived spells of Heavy Snow for Eastern US Seaboard, perhaps inland at times to.Although as I say, analogues for the current ENSO position include the late 70′s, and these were very cold and snowy for the South and East US. Perhaps raised snowfall for Western areas of the US on higher ground, this would result in a good Ski-Season for these areas, although for lower ground perhaps increased rain. Central US, as I say, looks like having some Good Snow/Cold, although perhaps ever so lightly less than the previous Season. But will it snow winter 2014? Although Don’t take this literally, the forecast can and will change, and this is only a Preliminary Outlook. Thanks for tuning in, the next update will be on the 1st of August :). To give you an idea the next update ahead very shortly will include detailed information for these specific regions of the area’s; Chicago, North East, Ohio and many other regions included. Thank you for reading.
Acknowledgements: NOAA QBO Index. CFS NOAA.University of Berlin QBO index. NOAA Solar Cycle 24 prediction. IRI Columbia ENSO.
Recommended Snow Season Forecasts from Other Long Range Forecasters:
Farmers Almanac, LiveWeatherBlogs, Piers Corbyn (Weather Action), AccuWeather.
*Good Evening Folks! . Welcome to the Latest KasimsWatcher’s . It’s Now Getting Fairly Close to the Season; Indeed Christmas Preparation is Now Well UnderWay with Significant October 2013* Snow Storms Across Central Parts of the US;- *Were You Hit by the Snow Storms?;- Feel Free to Comment on this Page or On Our Twitter/Facebook Accounts with Your Experience . (Click Here) To Like us on Facebook &*+(Click Here) To Give us a Follow on Twitter;- Thank You Very Much* :_)*. Right Okay, Today’s Blog is going to Run Through the Latest CFS;- UKMO;- ENSO &*+ NAO For US Winter in 2013/14 . *The Final & Official* US & UK Winter 2013/14* WeatherForecast* is on the 18th of November 2014 *(United Kingdom time);- Stay Tuned For That . First Up is the CFS;-
*CFS*USWinter2013/14*El Nino State*;-
*The Latest US CFS Weather Forecast For December/January/February 2013 is Hinting At Fairly Unsettled Conditions Across the East;*And It’s Warm Across Western Areas* with Higher Pressure;- *This is a Typical El-Nino Type Winter With the Polar Low Serving *Cold&Snow* Across Western Areas* .*Here’s The Latest CFS Weather Forecast*For Winter 2013/14*;-
UKMO. Weak El Nino Pattern for 2013-14.
*The Latest UK MO Seasonal Model Is Hinting at A;- Very Similar Scenarios as the CFS* Weather Forecast for 2013/14* US;- *Although Here we Have Increased Blocking (Negative NAO);- Across the NE of the US;- *Still an El Nino Set Up;- *However Increased Blocking Due To -NAO Predicted For Winter Leads to the Far NE of the US Enduring Near-Normal Conditions;- *Whilst Eastern/SE* Areas See Cold Conditions &*Western Parts of The US* Experience Warmer than Average Conditions &*Higher Pressure ;- A Fantastic For the US If You’re Looking for the Mild & Dry (West) :_);-*;-
&*Here’s The Latest -NAO Prediction* For US*;- The NAO Is Forecast to be Largely Negative Throughout :_);- * Now, For the US* For Winter 2013/14 This Means Increased Blocking Across the Far NE &*Especially Canada;- Leading to a *Near Normal with Warm Spells Winter* for Most* of the Time Here;- *However the Polar Low May Reach the Far NE Of the US &*+Canada From Times to Times; *Especially in SSW Events which are Thought to be Later in the Season;- *Brining *Cold&Snow* To Eastern US Areas .*Viewing the Latest Solar Activity & It’s Below Average with SolarCycle24 a Fairly Low Activity Period;- *This Increases -NAO Confidence* ;-*Here’s the Latest Solar Activity Updated:- 8th October 2013;- *Notice The Low SunSpot Number*;-;-
*EL Nino/ENSO* US 2013/14*;-*Weak El Nino Hinted At*;-
*&*Finally;- The *ENSO* Conclusion for US 2013/14* & Final Conclusion with a Preliminary Chart of the US Showing an Overall View of US Winter 2013/14* ;- *The ENSO Is Forecast to be Weak* El Nino* For Winter 2013/14* ;- This Means that Even though for the Majority of the Winter;- *We’re likely to Be In an El Nino (W/E Split) State;- Parts of the Winter may be In Non-El Nino Sate ;- This Means that Even Western Areas could See Polar Lows & Eastern Parts could Even* see Milder Conditions;- *This more Especially so Early on in the Season As the El Nino is at it’s Weakest Then*;- We’re also Likely to See that Northern Blocking Across the Far* NE of the US;- &*+ Into Canada To ;- *Here’s The Latest IPCC ENSO Forecast Going into thos 3 Wintry Months ;-;-
*US Winter 2013/14 Weather Forecast* Preliminary Temperature Chart*;-
;-&*&Just To Round Everthing Up;- *Here’s The KasimsWeatherWatcher’s *Preliminary US Winter 2013/14 Forecast Chart*;- *Notice the Interesting Parameters/Areas as ForeTold Earlier;-*A Fantastic Winter for (Mild&Dry)InTheWest &*(Cold&Snowy)* In The East ;- Thank You Very Much for Reading Today’s *US Winter 2013/14* Weather Forecast By *KasimsWeatherWatcher* ;-
*FYI*: The Next US Forecast Update will be Live to View on the 11th of October 2014, Stay Tuned for the Detailed Forecast Update including regions of Chicago etc .; Today’s Update (2nd September 2013): US Winter 2013/14 Blog takes a look at the Latest Seasonal Models, QBO, ENSO & Solar Activity and how these may Influence US Weather during Winter 2013/14. To skip all of the Technical info Scroll to the bottom of this Page to find a Conclusion like summary + US Winter Preliminary Temperature Forecast . Today’s Winter update takes a Quick look at a few of the Parameters that go towards the Winter Forecast. Please be aware that most Winter forecast parameters come into play during October/November, although the unpredictability of the Vortex (Polar cold wave), so Please stay tuned for those Updates. In today’s US Winter Forecast update we’re going to have a quick ovoerview of the QBO, ENSO, Solar Activity & the Latest Seasonal Models; A fairly uncertain forecast overall. Please Like us on Facebook (Click Here) & Follow us on Twitter to.
QBO & ENSO Influence On Festive; What a Vortex!
The QBO Section of the US Winter 2013/14 Forecast is fairly Complex, Feel free to Scroll to the Conclusion + Preliminary Temperature US Winter maps at the bottom of this Page: The QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) is a significant driver of Northern Hemisphere Winter weather. The QBO is an oscillation of zonal equatorial winds in the stratosphere which over a period of months propogate towards the surface. There are 2 main phases of the QBO, positive & negative. A Positive QBO would lead to less risk of SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) & is a pointer for a milder US Winter, whereas a Negative QBO would increase the risk of SSW, and is a pointer towards a colder US Winter. The QBO is currently in positive, over the coming months the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is likely to remain positive which will weaken the positive QBO Phase. If a negative QBO were to be induced towards the Winter months, belts of SSW would be likely from mid-Winter, increasing the Risk of a Blizzardours Nor’Easter (Signifciant NE US Low pressure system). Below is the QBO pattern we saw during 2012. We’d need to see a similar push into a Negative QBO during Autumn months to inrease risk of a Nor’Easter from Mid-Winter & overall push the Polar Vortex (Arctic low), South with the increased risk of SSW, in other words increase risk of colder Winter weather across the North & East US in particular;
US Winter 2013/2014: *El Nino Factor Present*;
The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillationn) is a significant driver of US Winter weather. The ENSO is an oscillation of warm/cool waters extending from the Coast of Peru into the Pacific. El Nino is a warm ENSO Phase, whereas the La Nina is a cool ENSO Phase. An El Nino factor is Present for Winter 2013/14, a weak-moderate El Nino is likely to develop during early-mid Winter 2013/14. This will increase the risk of cooler Weather across Eastern parts of the US, and including Canada esp the South and East, with milder conditions across Western parts of the US. Below is the Latest Nino3 from the ECMWF Seasonal Model, notice the El Nino Foretasted:
US (&UK) Winter 2013/15: UKMO *El Nino SetUp* + Northern Blocking:
That’s most of the Technical part of this Update out of the way now time to mention a few Seasonal Models & Solar Activity & how it may influence US Winter weather during 2013/14 . The Latest UKMO Met Office seasonal Model is hinting at a West/East split for the US for Winter, with Low pressure across Southern & Central parts of the Eastern US Seaboard, with High pressure across SW parts of the US, it also has a significant area of High Pressure to the NE of the US which is indicative of Northern Blocking. Northern Blocking could be a factor which we deal with often during Winter 2013/14, Northern Blocking would produce warm conditions for Canada/Greenland, with Milder conditions across Eastern parts of the US Seaboard. Below is the 500mb Forecast from the UKMO Seasonal Model, notice the Northern Blocking + W(HighP)/E(LowP) Split. In Laymans terms this would produce a slightly milder than Average Winter across the far NE & produce cool conditions for the East + SE, as well as milder + drier conditions for the West, and snowy conditions for the North East East of Chicago especially:
Solar Cycle 24 continues on it’s fairly quiet phase during 2013:A quite phase of Solar Activity would Increase risk of high level blocking & colder spells for parts of the Northern Hemisphere (AO Region), however Solar Cycle 24 has just peaked which means that the effects of Solar Activity this Winter are fairly uncertain; The decrease in Cycle 24 Activity during late 2013 may just point towards a Colder Wintry Season, however this Factor is fairly Uncertain.
Finally, the Preliminary KasimsWeatherWatcher Temperature map for US Winter 2013/14 is Posted below. A cool US Winter 2013/14 is Hinted at across Eastern/NE Parts of the US with Milder conditions possible in the West, however notice the Risk of Near-Normal temperatures across the far NE of the US (El Nino Pattern). Overall, a Milder than average Winter is favored for SW parts of the US, cooler conditions in the North/East with perhaps near-normal Temperatures for the far NE, Precipitation is Likely to be near-normal to High in the cooler Foretasted areas. Sharp bursts of Cold Winter weather is also Possible from Mid-Winter across the North/East of the US. Confidence on this Forecast is around 50%. Thank You for Reading the September 2013 US Winter 2013/14 Forecast, Don’t forget to Share on Twitter, Facebook or Google+ if you found this Wales, England, Scotland Northern Ireland, and USA (Cold North and East) Winter Forecast Useful, as we may Spiral into a Cyclone of Cold Weather (Pardon the Pun!) ;
UK 2013/14 Winter forecasts can be found below. US Winter 2013/2014 Latest Prediction;A Cold Picture across Eastern Parts of the US, with Warmer hints across Western areas, However fairly Uncertain.Return to this page on the 3rd* of September for the NEXT US WINTER 2013/2014 WEATHER FORECAST, focusing on a wider range of seasonal models & ENSO output. Using the ENSO Latest Data & preliminary long range forecasting models. Long range Forecasting is Uncertain and Experimental, Please Note. Your Questions may not be Answered in the comment box. Email your Questions to KASIMAWAN@LIVE.CO.UK to ask a Question on Winter Forecast. CLICK HERE TO LIKE US ON FACEBOOK, To keep up to Date with the US Winter 2013/2014 Forecast.
US Winter 2013/2014 ENSO Update: *El Nino Factor.*
Right then Folks, A Weak-moderate El Nino remains a significant factor for Winter in the United States. A weak-moderate El Nino would Signify cooler, snowier conditions for the NE of the US, with warmer conditions for the South & West of the US, with perhaps wetter conditions for SW States such as California & Arizona during Winter 2013/2014. Here’s the ENSO Summary from the IRI/CPC Ensemble. Running on the bottom is the Months & the Nino anomaly is running on the left. Notice the Nino becomes higher into the Fall & on into the Winter to. This would mean the earlier explained Winter factors earlier would be apparent during Winter 2013/2014. And this forecast suggests you’ll be using the Gritters, Salt, De Icer and Snow Shovel once again this year
CFS “EL Nino” Signals Long Range:
Okay, time to Talk Seasonal Models. Seasonal Models, are very Unreliable and experimental, not just for the Northern but also Southern hemispheres. They can provide, however, good back-up to a Forecast, which in this case is a “Possible” El Nino proposition. The Latest CFS Seasonal Model hints at an El Nino set up, notice the Warmer conditions across Western areas & cooler conditions across the NE, this is Typical of the “Cold Shot” pattern in the North East & with Warmer conditions across Western areas. Here’s the CFS Chart for Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb), notice the El Nino like Pattern, hinting that we enter a Polar Whirl:
US Winter Outlook Update “Conclusion”:
A Very Interesting Winter Forecast evolution for the US to say the least. View July’s Update for US Winter below. To summarize, an typical El Nino Winter pattern may be on the cards, with Warmer conditions (relative to normal) conditions across Western areas & cooler conditions in the North East of Canada & the US. A highly uncertain forecast, the Forecast guidance is Likely to change over the coming days & Evolve as we head on into September & Autumn. The next US Winter Prediction update will be Issued on the 3rd* of September; Stay Tuned, a very Interesting evolution to the Forecast especially with the El Nino for The North East and Canada, Cold conditions due to the Snow bringing Polar Vortex 2014.