*Good Evening Folks! . Welcome to the Latest KasimsWeatherWatcher’s US Winter 2013/14 Weather Forecast* . It’s Now Getting Fairly Close to the Winter Season; Indeed Christmas Preparation is Now Well UnderWay with Significant October 2013* Snow Storms Across Central Parts of the US;- *Were You Hit by the Snow Storms?;- Feel Free to Comment on this Page or On Our Twitter/Facebook Accounts with Your Experience . (Click Here) To Like us on Facebook &*+(Click Here) To Give us a Follow on Twitter;- Thank You Very Much* :_)*. Right Okay, Today’s Blog will Run Through the Latest CFS;- UKMO;- ENSO &*+ NAO For US Winter in 2013/14 . *The Final & Official* US Winter 2013/14* WeatherForecast* is on the 18th of November 2013;- Stay Tuned For That . First Up is the CFS;-
*CFS*USWinter2013/14*El Nino State*;-
*The Latest US CFS Weather Forecast For December/January/February 2013 is Hinting At Fairly Unsettled Conditions Across the East;*And It’s Warm Across Western Areas* with Higher Pressure;- *This is a Typical El-Nino Type Winter With the Polar Low Serving *Cold&Snow* Across Western Areas* .*Here’s The Latest CFS Weather Forecast*For Winter 2013/14*;-
*UKMO;-*Weak El Nino For*US Winter 2013/14*;-
*The Latest UKMO Seasonal Model Is Hinting at A;- Very Similar Scenarios as the CFS* Weather Forecast for Winter 2013/14* US;- *Although Here we Have Increased Blocking (Negative NAO);- Across the NE of the US;- *Still an El Nino Set Up;- *However Increased Blocking Due To -NAO Predicted For Winter Leads to the Far NE of the US Enduring Near-Normal Conditions;- *Whilst Eastern/SE* Areas See Cold Conditions &*Western Parts of The US* Experience Warmer than Average Conditions &*Higher Pressure ;- A Fantastic Winter For the US If You’re Looking for the Mild & Dry (West) &*The Cold&Snowy (East) :_);-*;-
*Negative -NAO*US Winter 2013/14*&+SolarActivity;-
&*Here’s The Latest -NAO Prediction* For US* Winter 2013/14*;- The NAO Is Forecast to be Largely Negative Throughout Winter 2013/14* :_);- *Feel Free to Read Reasons To Support* The Easterly NAO* Here;- http://www.kasimsweatherwatcher.com/winter-forecast-201314 .* Now, For the US* For Winter 2013/14 This Means Increased Blocking Across the Far NE &*Especially Canada;- Leading to a *Near Normal with Warm Spells Winter* for Most* of the Time Here;- *However the Polar Low May Reach the Far NE Of the US &*+Canada From Times to Times; *Especially in SSW Events which are Thought to be Later in the Season;- *Brining *Cold&Snow* To Eastern US Areas .*Viewing the Latest Solar Activity & It’s Below Average with SolarCycle24 a Fairly Low Activity Period;- *This Increases -NAO Confidence* for US Winter 2013/14* ;-*Here’s the Latest Solar Activity Updated:- 8th October 2013;- *Notice The Low SunSpot Number*;-;-
*EL Nino/ENSO* US Winter 2013/14*;-*Weak El Nino Hinted At*;-
*&*Finally;- The *ENSO* Conclusion for US Winter 2013/14* & Final Conclusion with a Preliminary Chart of the US Showing an Overall View of US Winter 2013/14* ;- *The ENSO Is Forecast to be Weak* El Nino* For Winter 2013/14* ;- This Means that Even though for the Majority of the Winter;- *We’re likely to Be In an El Nino (W/E Split) State;- Parts of the Winter may be In Non-El Nino Sate ;- This Means that Even Western Areas could See Polar Lows & Eastern Parts could Even* see Milder Conditions;- *This more Especially so Early on in the Season As the El Nino is at it’s Weakest Then*;- We’re also Likely to See that Northern Blocking Across the Far* NE of the US;- &*+ Into Canada To ;- *Here’s The Latest IPCC ENSO Forecast Going into thos 3 Wintry Months ;-;-
*US Winter 2013/14 Weather Forecast* Preliminary Temperature Chart*;-
;-&*&Just To Round Everthing Up;- *Here’s The KasimsWeatherWatcher’s *Preliminary US Winter 2013/14 Forecast Chart*;- *Notice the Interesting Parameters/Areas as ForeTold Earlier;-*A Fantastic Winter for (Mild&Dry)InTheWest &*(Cold&Snowy)* In The East ;- Thank You Very Much for Reading Today’s *US Winter 2013/14* Weather Forecast By *KasimsWeatherWatcher* ;-
*FYI*: The Next US Winter 2013/2014 Forecast Update will be Live to View on the 11th of October 2013, Stay Tuned for the Detailed Forecast Update .; Today’s Update (2nd September 2013): US Winter 2013/14 Blog takes a look at the Latest Seasonal Models, QBO, ENSO & Solar Activity and how these may Influence US Weather during Winter 2013/14. To skip all of the Technical info Scroll to the bottom of this Page to find a Conclusion like summary + US Winter Preliminary Temperature Forecast . Today’s Winter update takes a Quick look at a few of the Parameters that go towards the Winter Forecast. Please be aware that most Winter forecast parameters come into play during October/November, so Please stay tuned for those Updates. In today’s US Winter Forecast update we’re going to have a quick ovoerview of the QBO, ENSO, Solar Activity & the Latest Seasonal Models; A fairly uncertain forecast overall. Please Like us on Facebook (Click Here) & Follow us on Twitter to.
QBO & ENSO Influence On US Winter 2013/14 Forecast:
The QBO Section of the US Winter 2013/14 Forecast is fairly Complex, Feel free to Scroll to the Conclusion + Preliminary Temperature US Winter maps at the bottom of this Page: The QBO (quasi-biennial oscillation) is a significant driver of Northern Hemisphere Winter weather. The QBO is an oscillation of zonal equatorial winds in the stratosphere which over a period of months propogate towards the surface. There are 2 main phases of the QBO, positive & negative. A Positive QBO would lead to less risk of SSW (Sudden Stratospheric Warming) & is a pointer for a milder US Winter, whereas a Negative QBO would increase the risk of SSW, and is a pointer towards a colder US Winter. The QBO is currently in positive, over the coming months the SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is likely to remain positive which will weaken the positive QBO Phase. If a negative QBO were to be induced towards the Winter months, belts of SSW would be likely from mid-Winter, increasing the Risk of a Blizzardours Nor’Easter (Signifciant NE US Low pressure system). Below is the QBO pattern we saw during 2012. We’d need to see a similar push into a Negative QBO during Autumn months to inrease risk of a Nor’Easter from Mid-Winter & overall push the Polar Vortex (Arctic low), South with the increased risk of SSW, in other words increase risk of colder Winter weather across the North & East US in particular;
US Winter 2013/2014: *El Nino Factor Present*;
The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillationn) is a significant driver of US Winter weather. The ENSO is an oscillation of warm/cool waters extending from the Coast of Peru into the Pacific. El Nino is a warm ENSO Phase, whereas the La Nina is a cool ENSO Phase. An El Nino factor is Present for Winter 2013/14, a weak-moderate El Nino is likely to develop during early-mid Winter 2013/14. This will increase the risk of cooler Weather across Eastern parts of the US, with milder conditions across Western parts of the US. Below is the Latest Nino3 Forecast from the ECMWF Seasonal Model, notice the El Nino Foretasted:
US Winter 2013/14: UKMO *El Nino SetUp* + Northern Blocking:
That’s most of the Technical part of this Forecast Update out of the way now time to mention a few Seasonal Models & Solar Activity & how it may influence US Winter weather during 2013/14 . The Latest UKMO Met Office seasonal Model is hinting at a West/East split for the US for Winter, with Low pressure across Southern & Central parts of the Eastern US Seaboard, with High pressure across SW parts of the US, it also has a significant area of High Pressure to the NE of the US which is indicative of Northern Blocking. Northern Blocking could be a factor which we deal with often during Winter 2013/14, Northern Blocking would produce warm conditions for Canada/Greenland, with Milder conditions across Eastern parts of the US Seaboard. Below is the 500mb Forecast from the UKMO Seasonal Model, notice the Northern Blocking + W(HighP)/E(LowP) Split. In Laymans terms this would produce a slightly milder than Average Winter across the far NE & produce cool conditions for the E + SE, as well as milder + drier conditions for the West:
Solar Activity Influence on US Winter 2013/14? + Summary:
Solar Cycle 24 continues on it’s fairly quiet phase during 2013:A quite phase of Solar Activity would Increase risk of high level blocking & colder spells for parts of the Northern Hemisphere (AO Region), however Solar Cycle 24 has just peaked which means that the effects of Solar Activity this Winter are fairly uncertain; The decrease in Cycle 24 Activity during late 2013 may just point towards a Colder US Winter, however this Factor is fairly Uncertain.
Finally, the Preliminary KasimsWeatherWatcher Temperature map for US Winter 2013/14 is Posted below. A cool US Winter 2013/14 is Hinted at across Eastern/NE Parts of the US with Milder conditions possible in the West, however notice the Risk of Near-Normal temperatures across the far NE of the US. Overall, a Milder than average Winter is favored for SW parts of the US, cooler conditions in the North/East with perhaps near-normal Temperatures for the far NE, Precipitation is Likely to be near-normal to High in the cooler Foretasted areas. Sharp bursts of Cold Winter weather is also Possible from Mid-Winter across the North/East of the US. Confidence on this Forecast is around 50%. Thank You for Reading the September 2013 US Winter 2013/14 Forecast, Don’t forget to Share on Twitter, Facebook or Google+ if you found this Winter Forecast Useful ;
UK 2013/14 Winter forecasts can be found below. US Winter 2013/2014 Latest Prediction;A Cold Picture across Eastern Parts of the US, with Warmer hints across Western areas, However fairly Uncertain.Return to this page on the 3rd* of September for the NEXT US WINTER 2013/2014 WEATHER FORECAST, focusing on a wider range of seasonal models & ENSO output. Using the ENSO Latest Data & preliminary long range forecasting models. Long range Forecasting is Uncertain and Experimental, Please Note. Your Questions may not be Answered in the comment box. Email your Questions to KASIMAWAN@LIVE.CO.UK to ask a Question on Winter Forecast. CLICK HERE TO LIKE US ON FACEBOOK, To keep up to Date with the US Winter 2013/2014 Forecast.
US Winter 2013/2014 ENSO Update: *El Nino Factor.*
Right then Folks, A Weak-moderate El Nino remains a significant factor for Winter in the United States. A weak-moderate El Nino would Signify cooler, snowier conditions for the NE of the US, with warmer conditions for the South & West of the US, with perhaps wetter conditions for SW States such as California & Arizona during Winter 2013/2014. Here’s the ENSO Summary from the IRI/CPC Ensemble. Running on the bottom is the Months & the Nino anomaly is running on the left. Notice the Nino becomes higher into the Fall & on into the Winter to. This would mean the earlier explained Winter factors earlier would be apparent during Winter 2013/2014.
CFS “EL Nino” Signals for Next Winter:
Okay, time to Talk Seasonal Models. Seasonal Models, are very Unreliable and experimental. They can provide, however, good back-up to a Forecast, which in this case is a “Possible” El Nino proposition. The Latest CFS Seasonal Model hints at an El Nino set up, notice the Warmer conditions across Western areas & cooler conditions across the NE, this is Typical of the “Cold Shot” pattern in the North East & with Warmer conditions across Western areas. Here’s the CFS Chart for Winter (Dec/Jan/Feb), notice the El Nino like Pattern:
US Winter Outlook Update “Conclusion”:
A Very Interesting Winter Forecast evolution for the US to say the least. View July’s Update for US Winter below. To summarize, an typical El Nino Winter pattern may be on the cards, with Warmer conditions (relative to normal) conditions across Western areas & cooler conditions in the North East of Canada & the US. A highly uncertain forecast, the Forecast guidance is Likely to change over the coming days & Evolve as we head on into September & Autumn. The next US Winter Prediction update will be Issued on the 3rd* of September; Stay Tuned, a very Interesting evolution to the Forecast.
*July 2013 US Winter 2013/2014 Update. (Previous Outlook)*:
Good evening folks. Winter is now just 5 months away today and it’s a “Dramatic” countdown on KasimsWeatherWatcher with an ENSO Prediction update & US Seasonal models update for the Winter. Yesterday we had the UK Winter Update, which looked at some Very dramatic Seasonal models, Click here to read that. Anyway, it’s US time tonight. And starting off with a quick view of the CFS, which is, quite alarming for Winter 2013/2014 for Eastern US in particular, with below average temperatures. Enough to wake the Summer “Hibernators”.
CFS Eastern US Cold/ Western US Near Normal Winter.
Okay, time to talk US CFS. It’s not encouraging at all for the Eastern States & Canada, with below average temperatures producing a cold & snowy winter for 2013/2014. However, for Western US, it’s not looking “too bad” with near normal temperatures & higher pressure. Take it or leave it, the CFS has been fairly consistent with this idea, however as we all know, the CFS is very unreliable, so this is just part of the puzzle:
US Winter 2013/2014 ENSO Update.
A quick update tonight on the US Winter ENSO Prediction. The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) is an Oscillation of Warm/Cold sea surface temperatures stretching up from Peru into the Tropical Pacific. There’s 2 “States” to this, El Nino and La Nina. El Nino is the phase where the waters in this region are Warm, and La Nina in the phase where waters in this region are cold, below normal. The ENSO state during Winter 2013/2014 has huge impacts on US Winter weather, the Image below explains the US Winter impacts with the 2 phases of ENSO;
Winter 2014 Forecast ENSO; Weak-Moderate El Nino?
A “Weak to moderate” El Nino may be the occurrence of Winter, let’s have a look why. A week to moderate El Nino, means, in Laymans terms, Slightly above normal ENSOregion temperatures, the ENSO region is the area of the Eastern Tropical Pacific, stretching out from Peru. Now, the IRI/CPC chart showing the ensemble models for the ENSO temperature forecast shows temperatures pushing up into weak-moderate El Nino territory, (Months are shown below), this would mean cooler conditions for Eastern US/ Eastern Canada with a “Polar Jet” producing cold and at times snowy weather during Winter, with Warmer weather (Or at least “Relatively”) warmer Weather for Western US & Western Canada, with often Southerly winds here. Or at least, that’s what current indication goes by. I will continue to have Blogs and updates during the coming Months and Weeks, because of course the forecast can change and is very uncertain, other variables play a huge part to, the update times will be released on the Homepage. Here’s a zoomed in view of a typical US El Nino winter, this may be a familiar view over the coming months, stay tuned. Recommended Winter outlooks from other Weather websites: LiveWeatherBlogs.com. AND WeatherAdvance.com. THANK YOU.