U.S Heat Forecast Update; Will There Be An Extreme HeatWave During July 2015? & Climatic Update; Arctic Sea Ice.
Good afternoon folks :). During previous Summer’s the US really has been in the sauna, with temperatures during 2013 baking into the low 40′s ‘C (low 100′s Farenheight), Today’s Update Explores if this Summer, more especially July, live up to the previous Sun Bakers?
A Recap on Earlier Summer’s Baking heat, and will July 2015 live up to the heat wave standards?
Quite regularly during large swathes of Summer 2013 and 2014 across the Central and Southern States. Strong Southerly winds blew tremendous amounts of hot air from the Caribbean, North towards Texas and other Southern areas, including the famous Death Valley. High temperatures to this degree are not rare in this part of the planet, however heat wave worthy temperatures pushing so far inland to middle planes of the continent, can be very risky health wise to many, and is not such a common atmospheric event.
Here at KasimsWeatherWatcher, we are closely analyzing the various weather models, the ECMWF, GFS etc, for trends towards the very hot conditions. At the moment upper air temperatures at 850hpa (5,000 ft above the surface), are close to the average for the time of year, however we are seeing a “Surge of Hot, Dry Continental air”, lay down on the far South and into Mexico, spreading the heat wave North. This could produce surface temperatures as extreme as 39C, however this may be a “taste” of what is to come, the long term forecast reveals.
A Push of 40C High’s are Forecast during the coming days for the Extreme South of the US:
Thank you for reading today’s U.S Heat Wave update. Looking further ahead, there are tentative signs that a very hot spell of weather will become dominant across many Central and Southern swathes of the region during mid July. However, this is fairly uncertain, I’d emphasize returning for updates over the coming weeks.
Climatic Rambling For June 2015; Concerns over Arctic Sea Ice, however Antarctic looking very interesting.
The Arctic sea Ice has been brought to my attention recently. It continues to “slide away”, during early Summer 2015, almost 0.5 million square kilometers of surface area of sea Ice below the standard deviation / anomaly for the 1981-2010 range. Radically, you would expect me to worry. However I suspect this is largely influenced by the coming super El Nino event for 2015. Taking a closer look at the Arctic sea Ice, we discover that a large amount of Ice has been lost around the Alaska and Pacific coast, which would of course make sense for this thought. Although, a large amount has also been lost around Scandinavia. During the peak of the Season, the Arctic sea Ice reached it’s peak, of course; during late February when 14.54 million square km of ice extent was recorded. This, is the most shrunk, ice maximum ever recorded for the Northern hemisphere.
If you know me, you know that I am always keen to say that the era of closely monitoring the earth with such updates, only looks at our planet during a very very small fraction of time. Therefore, we may be in for something which has happened before on previous natural cycles, for which we have not been around long enough to explain. Of course, in future updates I will discuss possible theories as to the cause of such a dramatic fall off in Arctic sea Ice.
It’s not all doom and gloom, the Antarctica is well above the average, boasting many millions of square kilometers above average. Year 2014 was the highest extent on the Antarctic in modern records for May; 2015 follows slightly behind 2014′s anomaly. As you can see from the graphical image below, with some exceptions, generally the Ice is fairly similar to 2014, slightly below perhaps. 2016 is likely to continue on with this “2 ends of the extremes”, with ice increasing in the South but declining further North. This is very interesting, as it has been a while since we have seen such low Arctic sea Ice values whilst the Antarctic boasts so high. I will no doubt be doing further updates on this fascinating topic, we are far from understanding our planet fully, I do believe nature is to complex to get a grasp on anyway. Thanks for reading.