Find the latest U.S Winter blog update exploring how lower solar activity and a strong El Niño will lead us to forecast more severe conditions in the North East & general information for my prediction which is looking very interesting; Right @ Winter Here.
<Winter Insert, 17.0715>
Having issued my first look at what the Winter of 2015-2016 may hold in store for the U.S, I would like to use this page to vent further information about the El Nino ahead and what exactly a “Modoki” El Nino is, and how it could lead us to forecast a Severe U.S Winter. A Modoki El Nino is when temperatures in the Tropical Pacific are higher than average, however to a higher extent across the Central Pacific in areas stretching from the Nino 3.4 region. In a Modoki event, it is the higher temperatures in this Ocean region that allow it to be designated as an official El Nino. At the moment quite a strong & severe heat wave is crippling Southern parts of the States, and the mid west, this is forecast to intensify in the coming weeks.
There have been various studies as to how this different, (1 in 3 are Modoki), type of El Nino influences the global weather patterns in contrast to a classic event. The classic affects remain the same, droughts in East Australia and warmer, wetter conditions around South America. However in terms of the affects further afield, especially during Winter in North America and even towards Europe, is fairly uncertain. 2015-2016 should reveal a lot, how it pans out will answer the question does a modoki promote a cold severe winter for both these geographical locations.
A modoki is thought to aid increasing efforts of Northern Blocking, which indeed is the pinnacle of building colder than average conditions and plundging snow and severe conditions South from the Arctic and South into mid latitudes. A typical pattern of El Nino would increase the strength of mild Westerly winds from the North Eastern Seaboard of the U.S, and East towards the British Isles. A Modoki may just “pull” the Westerly winds into a different shape, through stratospheric influences, creating North Westerly winds into Europe. As for America, again it would be a case of Northern Blocking (high latitude high pressure systems), re directing the cold & snow South. As ever thank you for reading :)
During Summer 2015, I will be issuing a Winter Update in Around August, I usually attract a modest U.S audience for some reason during August, therefore I will be issuing a detailed US Winter 2015-2016 forecast around the time of early August & July. I will also be issuing updates of HeatWaves across the United States, with an extended interest in the heat concentrated around the Nevada desert and the South of the US during the upcoming Summer season.
Winter updates for this part of the globe will tie in with general solar activity, ENSO & El Nino updates throughout the year.
Also, the Seasonal United States updates will concentrate around the Super El Nino, and various other signals. It is still only June, therefore we have a while to wait for more forecast info.