*UK Winter 2013/14 Weather Forecast Deadline;- *Low-Moderate Confidence Of A Cool-Cold Winter*;- *Potentially A Winter Like 1960′s Cool-Cold And Snow Etc; *Significant Factors Pointing Towards It* ;_) * Feel Free To Share This Winter Forecast On *Twitter/Facebook* (You Can Click The Twitter/Facebook Words To Follow/Like Us On There To*:*). &* Feel Free To Follow KasimsWeatherWatcher on Twitter & Facebook ;- *Detailed UK Winter 2013/14 Forecast/Caveats* ;*) is Here To Read*;-
*Good Evening Followers of KasimsWeatherWatcher* . Welcome to the Latest UK Winter 2013/14 Weather Forecast Update;- .Right, There’s Lot’s of Questions on Both the UK Winter Forecast And US Winter Forecast;- Unfortunately I will not be Able to Answer Questions in Short Time Here @ KasimsWeatherWatcher I hope you Understand This*;- However if you Give me a Notice on the Social Media Sites I’ll Usually Reply in the Late Evening . Right; This Update’s Issued on the 10th of October 2013;- For Those of you Reading a Few Day’s Ahead. FYI;- The Next Winter Weather Forecast is Ahead on the 17th of November 2013;- However we’ll Have Frequent Updates here @ *KasimsWeatherWatcher* Covering Important Factors so Feel Free to Follow on There To .
*And, be Aware Winter Forecasting is Notoriously Difficult *+Tedious;- So Please Use this Long,Long Blog as More of a Guide Rather than an Official Forecast, Thank You . Let’s Get to It Then!*. First Up is the CFS Cold UK Winter 2013/14 Update;- Then It’s UKMO Model, Tripole Update, QBO, Siberian Snow Cover To End;-*All these Factors Updated in this Blog will Go Towards the Latest NAO Forecast (Not Freezing For Britain With Severe Blizzard By Anyone’s Standards ;*)… An Index for UK Winter Weather . What is this NAO? The NAO (North Atlantic Osciallation);- Is An Index measuring the Direction of Wind over the North Atlantic During Winter Months; Based Off Pressure in This Area*. The NAO can Be Easterly(ColdColdSnowSnow)* &*Westerly(MildMildRainRain). *Please Bear in Mind that the NAO is Not a Driver of our Weather; *It’s Merely a Measured Index to Measure the Cold/Mild Air Set Up across the North Atlantic Region;- Influenced on the Synoptic Set Up which is Influenced On Lots of Background Factors which Influence The NAO;- *And It’s these Background Factors Which we’ll be Monitoring Today to See What *KasimsWeatherWatcher* Forecasts for Winter 2013/14 Weather . Let’s Get Into Those* Factors Then Starting with the CFS Latest Weather Forecasts ;-
*CFS UK Winter 2013/2014 *Cold &Snowy*;-
The CFS has been Keen to Enhance a Negative* NAO* Since this May;- With Exceptional Northern Blocking & Frequent Easterly to NorthEasterly Winds;-*This is a Fairly Significant Pointer To A Cold* UKWinter;- However the CFS Is Fairly Unreliable and We’re still in October of Course . *Here’s the Latest CFS Forecast 3 Monthly for This Winter*;- Just Notice that Northern Blocking;-*A Fairly Significant Pointer To A Cold One ;-
*UKMetOfficeModel *UK Winter Forecast *Cold & Snowy*;-
The Slightly more Reliable* UKMO Met Office Model is also Calling for a Cold One (Daily Express NewsPaper Style & November 2013 UK Snow Risk) Weather Wise” with a Largely Negative NAO & Blocking Conditions;- *Here’s the Latest *UKMetOffice Model* Forecast For *Dec/Jan/Feb*;- *Significant Northern Blocking* .;- It Seems to be That we’re Fairly Well Supported by The Computer Models being a Cold One;- Next Up is a Tripole Update (May SSTS) ;-
*May SST’s Tripole *Cold&Snowy *-NAO* UKWinter2013/14* ;-
The May SSTs were/are hinting at a cold (negative NAO) UK Winter :). The tripole (band of Warm/Cool/Warm SSTs across the North Atlantic), was evident in the May 2013 SSTs, this pattern at times tends to reoccur during the Winter months. This SSTs pattern would lead to an increased risk of Northern Blocking, hence the increased risk of a cold UK Winter. This theory is successful around 70% of the time, making it a fairly unreliable factor for Cold Wintry Weather . Below is the May 2013 SSTs annotated:
*QBO Discussion;- A Hard Call* :_)*;-
*If You’re not a Fan of Telleconnections and Technical Weather Forecasts Then I Suggest To Skip The* QBO Discussion And Skip to The Siberian Snow Cover Update* ;- The QBO is Very* Uncertain It’s Currently In A Positive Westerly Phase*. What is the QBO, You may Ask?* The QBO, in Layman’s Terms, The QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation) is a Parameter used by Forecasters as a significant driver for Winter weather. The QBO has 2 phases, positive and negative. The QBO for short is a series of alternating phases of Westerly & Easterly winds that develop at the top of the Tropical stratosphere & propogate downwards over a period of months. A negative, Easterly QBO can lead to Increased Northern Blocking (negative NAO) & an increased risk of SSW (Sudden Stratospheric warming), which lead to colder Winter conditions for the UK & Europe. Right Then ;- *KasimsWeatherWatcher* Predicts the QBO To Tail Off into Near-Neutral by Late Winter 2013/14;- Based on Various Perametes & Model Forecasters (Increasing SOI Index Esp)* Perhaps Hinting That That Negative, Easterly QBO Dipping into Late Winter (Increasingly By LateJan/Feb/Mar);- *May Lead to Increased SSW Risk by Late UKWinter2013/14;- *Rather than Early in the Season*;- The QBO Update will be Featured In November’s Update To;- *Let’s Hope the Negative Trends Continue Into November to Really Boost Confidence* in Forecasting a Cold One with Increased SSW (Stratospheric DownWelling of Warm Air Leading to Northern Blocking & ColdUKWinterWeather) For UK Winter 2013/14 Snow/Cold Events .
*Siberian Snow Cover & *UKWinter 2013/2-14*Cold&Snowy Support*;-
*Siberian Snow Cover is something we Commonly Look At to Increase -NAO Risk & Increased Blocking . Increased Snow Cover over Siberia & Into Eastern Europe during Autumn Months and Staying there into December usually Increases Chances of Cold UKWinter Weather with Increased Northern Blocking over the Large Snow Cover area;- *This Phenomenon Event occurred In 2012, Large Snow Cover Extent was Recorded by Late October which Lead to Significant Blocking over Europe into December 2012*;- However the Way in Which Siberian Snow Cover affects the UK with Blocking is always Very Difficult to Predict compared to Eurasia because we are Very Influenced by the Jet Stream and Atlantic Etc *;-We’re very Advanced for 2013 on the Snow Cover Front with one of the Most* Developed Years since 1991, *Cold Air is Forecasted to Continue Over Siberia Into October meaning that Snow Extent is Forecasted to continue to Gain into October/November*;- *Siberian Snow Cover is Well Advanced during Early October 2013*;- *Increasing Blocking Risk*;-*&Here’s the Latest Siberian Snow Cover from 6th October 2013;- Notice the Very Nice Extent over Siberia & the Northern Hemisphere;-
*Solar Activity* &*+Conclusion Winter Forecast @ *KasimsWeatherWatcher* :_)*;-
*Here’s the Latest Solar Activity Update + Conclusion @ KasimsWeatherWatcher as to How Winter UK conditions may Shape Up ;- Solar Cycle 24 (24th in Series of 11 year Solar Cycles);- Is a Fairly Quiet Solar Cycle with Vastly reduced Sunspots & Activity;- *As of October 8th There were Just 5 Visible SunSpots. *The Link between Low Solar Activity & Shift of the Jet Stream is Fairly Evident*:- Reduced Solar Activity usually Leads to Weakening &Reduced Jet Stream Activity;- *Here’s the Latest Solar Sun from October 8th 2013;- Notice the Limited SunSpots &* Limited M/C-Class Flare Risks;-*How Solar Activity progresses Through November will be Especially Important, SC24 Is Forecast to Remain Quiet into the Winter Months as SC24 Approaches Minima*;-
*UKWinter Forecast *@ KasismWeatherWatcher Conclusion* &*Caveats* :_)*;-
*Finally & To Conclude Then; All Major Factors (Solar,QBO,CFS,UKMO,Tripole,SiberianSnowCover);- Are Leading to a Cold UK Winter; A Fairly “Meaty” Update I think You’d Agree;- However Here’s some More Caveats .;- It’s Still a Little too Far out to Issue High Confidence* as well as Month to Month Forecasts;- *These will be Concentrated on in the November 2013 UK Winter Forecast Update . *There are Slight Complications in the QBO, (As Fairly Uncertain + Dip into Negative During Late Winter)*;- As well As the Computers Models are Fairly Unreliable;- *However Most Telliconnections + SiberianSnowCover&Tripole are Lead on Fairly Higher Confidence (50-60%);- *Increasing Risk of a Cold UKWinter*;- *When & How Significant Northern Blocking is During Winter is Fairly Uncertain, as Per the Profile of the Atmosphere Surrounding the UK;-
Even if all Parameters were Very Confident;- Due to the Proliferation of UKWinterWeather you can Rarely Tell How Significant the Northern Blocking will be;- *However KasimsWeatherWatcher Does Forecast a Good Deal of Northern Blocking During Winter;- *Leading to Cold & Snowy Conditions at Times*;- However Even in the Coldest of Winters;- *Milder Interludes are Very Likely even Seen in the Coldest UK Times*;- *If You’re Wondering how I would Compare the Forecast Guidance Outcome Possibilities to Previous Winters; – Cool Winters of the 50′s and Cool-Cold Winters of the 90′s Would Fit*;- However when a Cold Winter is Signaled you can Get Anything from A Slight*Cool to a Severe 1963 Style Winter* (Ie A Very Cold UK Christmas Weather Forecast For 2013) . *The NAO is Signaled to be Generally -Negative over Winter To*;- Again Hinting at a Good Deal of Cold&Snowy Weather;- *The Caeveats However are Fairly Significant here in the UK* .
Thank You Very much for Reading the UK Winter 2013/14 October 2013 Weather Forecast Update;- Hinting at a Cool-Cold UK Winter;- *The Next Update is on the 1st of November 2013*;- Which should Hold Increased Confidence on the Forecast*:- If you Enjoyed this UKWinter Forecast and Feel as Though Other people may Enjoy the Read to Feel Free to Share it on Facebook/Twitter . – And Feel Free to Like us on Facebook and Follow us on Twitter For Further Updates as we Push Into those 3, Dreaded Wintry Months;- Thank You . &*FYI: The Next UK Winter Forecast Is On The 1st Of November 2013 Here @ KasimsWeatherWatcher:* (Detail January 2014 UKWeather :_*) & February 2013 UKWeather :_*) Outlook’s Included* :*) Stay Tuned For Further Updates .*
*Blogs you Might Find Interesting by *KasimsWeatherWatcher*;-
*September 2013 UK Winter Forecast @*KasimsWeatherWatcher*;-
*FYI: The Next UK Winter Forecast Update is coming Up on the 10th of October 2013, Stay Tuned for that Update .; September 2013 UK Winter Forecast Update: Today’s Update covers a few Parameters which go towards Building a Forecast picture for the UK Weather; (Winter 2013/14). If you wouldn’t like to read all the Meaty info, consensus is for a Cool-cold Winter with a huge pint of Salt & uncertainty Tag, that’s because what we cover Today does build a Picture, however it’s only half of the Landscape as to what we’ll cover during October, and more significantly during November when we’ll have the Final Update. In this Update we take look (or Discard ) the CFS, Look at the QBO, May SSTs, Seasonal Models, touch on Solar Activity & mention some of the Factors ahead in October/November updates, as well as scripting a Conclusion on top of all of the Factors to Read about ahead:
UK CFS: Cold Signal;
Run after run, after Run (If you have been monitoring it), the CFS has been inducing significant Winter blocking, Mega Winter blocking. Unfortunately the CFS Forecasts of significant Winter blocking (cold & snowy UK Winter), may be more of a demonstaration of the CFS’s unreliability than a well-balanced Winter forecast, therefore I’m not going to take it as a significant pointer towards a cold UK Winter. If the CFS continues with it’s trends up until the October/November period then the CFS will become a signficant driver, however it is slightly too far out to take the CFS V2 as a Significantt pointer. Below is the CFS V2 Latest, Notice the sharp blocking signaled across the UK:
Negative (QBO Discussion), QBO Signaled?
The QBO is a fairly complex Pattern & Parameter so feel free to Scroll down to the Lower part of this Page for a more Straight to the Point approach & conclusion. We’re currently in a positive QBO state, however various factors are pointing towards a negative QBO to develop as we push into the Winter months. The SOI (Southern Oscillation Index) is currently positive as an anomaly which would fade the current positive QBO phase. – The evolution of the QBO phase is fairly uncertain as we push into Autumn 2013, the QBO will be discussed further in the October 2013 UK Winter forecast; Currently the QBO signal is hinting at an uncertain weakening of the positive phase during Autumn 2013, to conclude the QBO may become negative into Winter (most Likely scenario), increasing risk of a Cool-Cold UK Winter with decreased NAO & Increased SSW risk. Below is the QBO progression during 2012, notice the fall off of the QBO during the Autumn; This is a pattern we’ll need to see during 2013 to see the QBO as a significant Cold UK Winter pointer:
The UK Met Office Model is Hinting at a Cold UK Winter 2013/14:
That’s the technical info for UK out of the way, Just got this UKMO Seasonal Models analysis to do then it’s Solar Activity & a conclusion (Scroll down to View). So far we’ve got the QBO perhaps hinting at a cool-cold UK Winter (Christmas If You’re Lucky ;*), with the May SSTs also hinting at a cold Winter. Winter is still 3 months away and this Forecast is fairly uncertain please be aware . The UKMO (Met Office) model is hinting at significant blocking during the Nov/Dec/Jan period with High Pressure to the North of the UK & Low Pressure to the South, a Classic Negative NAO Set up, Below is the UKMO Pressure Chart, Notice the Cold-set Up:
Solar Activity Influence?
Here’s the Solar Activity & Conclusion/Roundup Section to the Winter Forecast Update ; Due to Winter still being quite far out we don’t have many Seasonal Models to work on, only the CFS (Unreliable), UKMO and the Jamstech, now the Jamstech Long Range Model is hinting at a cool Winter however it’s also quite Unreliable, the BCC, Brazilian Charts & others will come into play during October, so stay tuned for those Updates. So overall, the Seasonal models so far are tending towards a Cool UK Winter. Not to forget the QBO & SSTs also hinting at a Cold UK Winter.
Right, now time for Solar Activity influences. Solar Activity plays a huge part on UK Winter weather however just like all the other Factors it’s fairly uncertain. Solar Cycle 24 is now starting to detract in Activity and will continue to do so as we head into Autumn & Winter. As we’ve just had Solar Cycle 24′s peak and we’re now heading into a Quiet Sun’s phase I’d say that Solar is fairly uncertain. If Solar Activity dramatically Drops over the coming months then that may Increase risk of a Cold UK Winter, Solar Activity is forecast to decrease however the Velocity that it does so is fairly Uncertain, stay tuned for the October update.
Arctic Snow Cover increase also has Significant affects on UK Winter weather. If Arctic Snow cover rapidly Increases during Autumn months then the Cold air at the surface may lead to an Increased risk of Blocking & High pressure over the Arctic & Siberia which can lead to a Cold start to Winter for the UK, this was the occurrence during 2012 when Siberian Snow cover rapidly increased during September & October. The Latest is for a good deal of Blocking possible close to Siberia during September & October, indeed on the ECM & GFS there is hints of cooler weather than average arriving across Northern Latitudes fairly early, & with the Early Arctic Chill this cold Arctic air may propagate into the more Mid-Northern Latitudes during September/October, this Aspect is fairly Uncertain & will be covered more in the October update.
A very “Meaty” Winter UK Forecast Update I think you’d agree . To summarize, everything (QBO, May SSTs, UKMO & Solar Activity) hinting towards a Cool-Cold UK Winter. As explained earlier, the confidence of these Processes producing a cold Winter is around 60-70%, and these processes cover only half of what we’ll look at over the Coming months, therefore the Forecast, is of Moderate (50%) confidence, Please return to this page during the 3rd of October when we’ll have another (Even meatier) look at UK Winter Weather, Like us on Facebook or Follow on Twitter for more, Thank You for Reading .
August UK Winter Forecast Update:
PLEASE LIKE KASIMSWEATHERWATCHER ON FACEBOOK, CLICK HERE, TO LIKE, to keep up to date with the Winter Forecast. Good evening Folks, Winter. It’s the 3rd of August 2013 today which means that Winter will start in 4 months from now. In Today’s Update, following on from the US Winter Update linked to above, we’re going to have a Preliminary look at the Latest Long Range Seasonal output/Forecast for Winter. Seasonal forecasting is incredibly difficult, & uncertain. Especially during Winter, as the UK lies between 4 air masses, and during Winter the way in which these air masses Interact with each other to give us different “Weather Types” is incredibly Uncertain. In this Update, we’re simply going to Overview the Jamstech IOD & CFS Forecast models for Winter and Deliver a Quick Roundup.
Now, the NAO Outlook, which was Linked to at the Bottom of this Blog, signaled at the Preliminary Risk of Negative NAO, A Negative NAO usually means Cooler conditions for the British Isles & Europe. We now look to the Seasonal Output models for Support on this Concencus. Starting with the CFS. It’s been quite consistent, with the Idea of a Cool winter for the UK. Here’s the 700mb Pressure chart from the CFS for December/January/February, Notice the Easterly flow, Negative NAO, Cool, conditions with High Pressure to the North of the UK, however the flow isn’t Very Easterly, with no Huge blocking signal, so more of a “Cool” Winter season:
Jamstech IOD Forecast:
As was the Previous Winter Outlook from the Jamstech IOD Long Range Model from June, the Jamstech IOD continues to hint at much Cooler conditions for Winter, Indeed If The JamsTech IOD was Correct You’d Certainly Have Those Christmas 2013 Hat’s On! With a Strong Blocking signal. Here’s the Jamstech IOD Forecast from Late July 2013 for December-February for the Globe. Notice the Blue colors across the UK, Europe and into Asia, a Cold Winter signaled. Remember, Long range Seasonal modelling is Very Uncertain & will continue to evolve as we head into Autumn for the Winter Prediction, it may not be that we Experience a Cool winter. In Fact there’s a Good chance that the Seasonal models will “Flip Altogether” into Milder Signals, so Stay Tuned;
Forecast Update “Conclusion”;
A Very Interesting Update. As mentioned earlier, Seasonal Model Output is very unreliable, as the Models are in their infancy as is Climate science. The long range signals may well change into Milder output as we head into Autumn. View the Previous Winter UK Forecast below. The Latest output isn’t very cold, however it would lead to a Colder than average winter with Increased Blocking, as was the NAO Output. An incredibly Uncertain forecast, as it’s a Long way off; The Seasonal Models don’t factor in Stratospheric Warming which pays a Huge role in Colder weather, as well as the Models may well “Switch the Signals” for Winter weather.. Not to forget, the NAO Forecast, which Is linked to at the bottom of this Post, has around a 65-70% Success rate, which means that even if the current Indication runs along Cool-Cold lines, it’s Very Uncertain. We may experience a Mild Winter in the UK. The Next Update will be Issued on the 3rd of September, we will take in Solar, Seasonal Models, Arctic Sea Ice & much more to Conduct a Preliminary Forecast/outlook. Very Interesting evolution of the Forecast.
Looks at the May sea surface temperatures, the “Tripole” warm AMO setup in the Atlantic to produce a preliminary forecast of a Negative NAO, a cold European & UK winter (Dominant Easterly Blocked SetUp; *Perhaps Into Christmas 2013 To ;*) ).