Welcome to Kasim’s Early but detailed Long Range UK Winter 2015/16 weather forecast (Harsh Modern Winter?) interesting update by KasimsWeatherWatcher; in which we will take a detailed look at the factors which are thought to drive the atmospheric pattern in the North Atlantic & UK during the upcoming months when the forecast really does ramp up. Add the date 1st July 2015 to your diary as that is when the next Winter Update will be :)
How Will Solar Activity (the key for Cold weather) Pan Our During The Coming Winter of 2015-16 for Britain;
An interesting point I want to make out – Solar activity will be taking a huge decline during the next few years as we head into a continued phase of low solar activity – it does have a “build up” effect on the weather (through Atmospheric Influences). As you can see, preliminary forecasts for the sun heading into 2020, Do signal a further decline, patronizing the Westerly flows for the upcoming winter UK 2015-2016 seasons, perhaps starting with this year? Read Below for the full forecast.
In these Detailed Winter 2015-16 UK weather updates, we shall go in – depth as to what drives the upper air pressure patterns, and how they can feed back to bring certain type of conditions. We shall analyse what conditions these predicted are forecast to be in, and produce a conclusion as to how it will materialize due to this. With concentration on the rare style of El Nino, as well as other factors. Read. The method is slowly improving year on year, accuracy of KasimsWeatherWatcher’s long range updates should follow later on.
Great Potential for 2015/16 Cold due to El Nino & SST’s Combination; What are the weather Implications of this?
A Super El Nino In A Modoki Style, is not a Recorded Modern event (away from the 2015-16 forecast), therefore, it could bring a mighty surprise this year for the UK Winter Season (doesn’t it always surprise Us ;)., it may Increase likelihood of forced Northern Blocking to the NW of the UK, and as a result a Colder experience; in contrast there are huge uncertainties regarding the detail and how things may pan out, read about these weather factors below.
If so, read on, this UK Winter 2015-16 update paying attention to various long range forecast topics for the upcoming year, will certainly have snow lovers interested here at KasimsWeatherWatcher, I am also a snow – lover :) We will touch on El Nino Southern Oscillation, Siberian Cover, Arctic Sea Ice, the long range models, Solar Activity, Quassi Benniel Oscillation, and much more for the increasingly cold looking, due to a variety of factors, however we can not be 100% certain. Bear in mind, the next update here at KasimsWeatherWatcher.com will be in July.
The Previous Winter Year;
The Previous year, 2015, largely influenced by North to North Westerly winds, was near average, at times significant snowfall; however it wasn’t 100 days of snow, nor the “worst winter” for a Century. Certain factors, a major one being Sea Surface Temperatures, suggest 2015-16 will follow suit, or perhaps could be a tad colder than the previous.
To forecast long range in the United Kingdom requires the understanding that the systems, largely influenced by various patterns, are very volatile, and can not be predicted in a text book manor. In this year’s KasimsWeatherWatcher long range outlook we shall be concentrating on various factors that go into the scene. These will include; El Nino (ENSO), Solar Activity (Activity of the Sun, including the way it influences our ionosphere, stratosphere etc), QBO (Quassi Benniel Oscillation), Siberian Snow Cover, Analogue models/data, and of course various long range models, including the CFS data model, JMA, and a host of others. So, get a hot cup of tea or something to eat, as this will be a rather long update, and very detailed :)
During The Winter Build Up, There is a Huge Amount of Hype for A Severe Season in the Media, the same is likely for 2016:
During October and November 2015, which is the build up period of the following winter, is often the time which most forecasts are put out. Most years, it can look like, or appear ;) to be in for a cold year, take last year as an example, the El Nino was Modoki (Central Based, supporting Cold for the UK (similarly so will 2015 be) ), including a Very Negative, East Based NAO, A Cold, Snow Scenario. It is very important to understand that, each year, and in meteorology (hour) offers a new imbalance of factors, and how this will relate to the Atlantic pattern, which is very important. Articles supporting a Severe Winter such as that one, suggesting “100 days of snow”, are often the result of taking these signals too literal, and forgetting that long range weather, is never going to be “certain”, or definite. However, it can get us Forecasters in a tangle when it comes to building Excitement and the risk of Heavy Snow :)
Winter 2015-16 KasimsWeatherWatcher’s analogues & comparison to previous years: similarities with the record – breaking 2009/2010 big freeze.
What I find extremely interesting for the coming winter, is that the forecast El Nino & Solar Activity for this year, are very close to that of 2009/2010, with a strong to very strong El Nino from the CFS, & a reduced Solar Activity. A strong El Nino, characteristically would increase the risk of Mild Weather, because it forces the United States Jet Stream, heading it into the British Isles later in 2015, this in turn produces a strong flow, keeping any Northern Blocking and colder temperatures tucked up North of Iceland and into the Arctic. With solar activity that isn’t very low (extremely low solar activity, or at least very low, causes stratospheric warming events, cancelling out the affect of a strong El Nino). However, the El Nino during this year and especially during the early part of 2016 and late 2015 is predicted to be a Modoki Event, this having the effect of producing a deeper low pressure weather pattern close to Texas in Southern USA, which causes downwelling of cold into more Western parts of the U.S, this has the return effect of pushing Northern Blocking towards Newfoundland and Greenland, and creating a Negative NAO Scenario for the UK. Yes, we are looking ahead towards a Modoki El Nino, however cooler than average Sea temperatures around the British Isles will have the affect of dampening down the Blocking efforts. Of course the more in depth kasimsweatherwatcher winter updates in October-November will explain much much more.
As you can see Below: the upcoming winter of 2015 will have similarities with 2009-10, however there are huge uncertainties; the biggest of which how a Westerly QBO will negate the affects of increasingly exciting factors aiding a negative NAO.
Next year is probably going to be even more difficult to predict that last says KasimsWeatherWatcher’s forecast , although the outcome, will likely be not average.
Most Mathematical Models such as the JMA, Korean, European Etc, Russian: Do Not Predict for Winter 2015-16 weather Until August.
With No Tripole, the Atlantic will be in an Increasingly cold pattern forecast this year in the North, the Coldest for 2 decades, could this drive an increase of strong stormy flows, turned into cold & wintry NW flows for 2015-2016 in particular. This, in turn with the very strong Modoki El Nino in place, could come together to create something truly remarkable during early 2016, in a scientific sense; as this pattern has not been observed before. A modoki El Nino is thought to create a cold Europe/UK (uncertain), and a No Tripole setting may help reinforce a strong jet stream. With low solar activity during winter 2015-16, it could be at times quite easy to push the Cold Air Masses East, and down across Britain in a NW – SE manor, funneling snow and cold into the British Isles from a Polar air source. This is not an incredibly cold, or Wintry pattern, however the Northerly Arctic shots can be potent at times. In terms of Siberia and Easterly flows, this will be kept until the next weather Update, which will be released in July. I’m not giving away any further information, however it certainly looks like Northerly may be the New Easterly, for the coming seasons of interest. We just can’t be sure of what it will hold :)
Preliminary Conclusion & Release of Upcoming Release Dates; & Are the Theories Reliable?
As ever with long range forecast theories, the back up is fairly low, and the science is in it’s infancy. Here at KasimsWeatherWatcher we are passionate about increase accuracy and reliability of winter forecasts, however there will be twists and turns in the journey;
This would have the affect of driving in Colder conditions across the UK during Winter 2015-16 due to high pressure then blocking up towards Greenland, however with largely below average sea surface temperatures across the NW of Europe likely to last deeper into the season of interest; we can expect the storm – laden Westerlies to be rather strong especially during January & February. One would think that this is not leading to a colder negative NAO pattern, however the model doesn’t show that with this it would be fairly easy for a fairly snowy North Westerly wind, especially later on in the 2016 Year. The 2 Charts from the CFS are explained below. This is honestly just for fun. Long range in the UK are not to be taken seriously, and the accuracy is not expected to be particularly high. Continued, the belief and practice of theory that various drivers (El Nino, QBO, Solar Activity, North Atlantic Oscillation Drivers) do have some affect, and exactly how they affect the atmospheric set up and long range drivers, can lead to us gaining the required knowledge to hopefully long range forecast / speculate ;) more accurately in the future, and including a higher degree of accuracy. As at the moment I will admit, that it is just to be taken lightly and I will try and put together a more in depth view for 2016 forecast as we head later through the Autumn period. Thank you for reading this long range update at KasimsWeatherWatcher.com, do stay tuned for further winter 2015-16 updates, we will also have a North America Winter 2015-2016 Forecast Update. Here are those Charts!