UK Winter 2014-15 Weather Forecast; Any Hope Of Something Colder? Merely a brief touch on what is thought to be Winter influencing topics.
2014 is set to be the Warmest Year on Record for the UK. Will Winter see a change of fortunes, or will it turn Much Colder? This Blog update is a Very Detailed overview of some factors which are Believed to affect Winter weather in the UK. Sit comfortably as it is a very Lengthy Update. Good Afternoon, and Welcome to my Third UK Winter 2014-15 Weather Forecast. Of course, “Long range forecasting”, or “speculation”, is very Uncertain, so Please Don’t take this Forecast too Seriously. Below is a Lovely snow picture, and Whilst I have been Teasing many People with Snow pictures recently, that Reminds me that a Cold/Snowy Winter would be very Nice to See. So let’s hope this Update has got something a Little more Exciting for Cold/Snow Lovers amongst you .
First things first – Siberian Snow Cover. I’ve been talking very much about Siberian snow cover recently on my Facebook page Weather Watcher Kasim, and although Siberian Snow Cover is a big driver of Northern Blocking, it has little clought when it comes to the overall Winter pattern in the Atlantic & Europe. This is because other “Factors” which we will Look at Shortly have a greater impact on the set up. For example, if we pick up Huge amounts of Snow Cover over Scandinavia in October, although the Jet Stream is very, very dominant over the Winter months, then the Snow cover will only work to make things more tricky to develop cold, as Greenland Blocking (rather than Scandinavian Blocking), would be much more beneficial to develop UK Cold. The current Siberian Snow cover is doing Fantasticaly, as you can see we have Increased things Dramatically Westwards towards Norwegian Countries, which Theoretically is a Great sign, although Whether Snow Cover is Benefitical for People who want a Cold Winter ultimately depends on Other Factors such as the Jet Stream (which is Impacted by ENSO, Solar Activity), etc
The “OPI”, What is the OPI? And how does it impact our Winter Weather.
This is the very first time I have mentioned the OPI, the October Pattern Index is a measure of variables in October which are thought to impact Winter weather in the UK. There has been a huge, huge amount of interest regarding the OPI recently. Although ultimately, I am not a huge fan of the subject because with Weather and long range forecasting it is difficult to take Observations of Variables, and use them to make Predictions for the Future. This is mainly because this Methodology only works for a Certain time scale. Although having said that, the Current OPI of -2.86 would be promising concerning hopes for some Colder or Snowier weather this Winter, although I can not say too much on the Subject as 2014 is the First Year I have been introduced to the Subject by many Followers.
So far, we have discussed the Siberian Snow Cover. A very good development so far this Autumn, and it will help to increase Scandinavian Blocking as we head into November and December if it continues to develop so well. Although, is Scandinavian Blocking really what we need this Winter given other factors producing a specific type of Jet Stream? This is an Interesting Talking Point as we may not need so much “Snow Cover”, to get Cold Snaps. Solar Activity is Quite High at the moment which may Enhance the Jet Stream, and Just push Bouts of Heavy wind and rain into the Scandinavian Block, giving Us a Cold Winter, and that is not what we want
Solar Activity 2014 – Reducing Very Slowly but in a Very, Very fluctuation - Bound State. This moderate activity means we are likely to continue to see a moderate Jet Stream during the Winter, although just “Where” the Jet Stream is, is much more important. The theory is that reduced Solar Activity leads to a reduced Jet Stream strength, and increased chances of Sudden Stratospheric Warming (the Snow Lovers Magic). For example, Winter 2010/11 had Very low Solar Activity, which is thought to of aided the Blocking which Brought a Severely Cold Spell, as Seen Below. The thing about the Current solar state is the large amount of fluctuations currently going on, from high to low. These fluctuations are mostly unpredictable – and how they impact the Jet Stream is even more unpredictable. Therefore it is fair to say, if we experience any “Lower” periods of Solar Activity, which is indeed possible for Winter 2014-15, then we are likely to experience a few Colder Snaps, with some Snow at times. Although the general idea is that throughout most or the Entire Winter Solar Activity will be Very High. In the usual UK Winter, occasional cold snaps occur. White out Winters are extremely Rare, although Winter 62/63 was not an exception to the extremely rare rule.
El Nino Southern Oscillation. Incase you are unaware which I imagine is very, very few numbers of my following list, an El Nino is a period of 6 months or more characterized by temperatures in the Central Pacific (Sea surface temperatures), at 0.5C or more above average. We are not yet in an El Nino phase (zzzzz), the El Nino for 2014 is one of the most Boring El Nino events I have ever witnessed. On a serious note, the Southern Oscillation Index is now slowly picking up to more negative values, although values in recent weeks have been Damaging to say the least. What was predicted in the CFS and so many other weather models throughout 2014 was a Central based El Nino, (in regions 3+4, which is the Central Pacific). Interestingly, a Middle El Nino (Modoki), is much more helpful when thinking about European Cold. A modoki El Nino, excitingly, is helpful for Northern Blocking, and can push Colder conditions into the UK. Exactly why this occurs, is very uncertain, therefore it is not a significant factor which we can work on. Although, it is very infuential. The graph below shows Enso, Solar and NAO values for the past 15 Winters. (NAO = Index of Atlantic Pressure). A negative NAO = cold UK Winter weather. As you can see, solar activity is very interesting. The only winters with very negative NAOs, (2010,2009), both have low solar activity. Also, the only Winter with very positive NAOs, have at least moderate Solar Activity. Although even in Winters with high solar activity, cold spells, or periods of very cold weather, have occurred. This is another reminder that No Matter what all these factors are showing, it is still very much possible to experience short bursts of colder weather. This is again, due to the “unpredictable” element at play. Lets just hope we get some Snowy scenes this Winter
On the Latest CFS run, The El Nino, as you can see, by the CFS is predicted to maintain into very slight El Nino values over Winter. Although by Feburary the El Nino Modoki will be stronger than it was in December etc. Also notice the Nino 2/1, which is forecast to continue on extremely weak levels through Winter. This is not a great El Nino sign, respectively on the 3/4 Values it is quite good for developing some very Arctic conditions, for Eastern Europe! Although for the UK it will be a case of watch and wait and the weather models. I have to say, the various factors are looking Ok this Year. The one thing which I have a lot of uncertainty about, is the fact that one Very Mild Winter (such as 2013/14), is Very Rarely followed by a Colder Winter. Which makes me say, chances of a Milder than average winter are very much Still there for Winter 2014.15, with Normal being the biggest “Chance” in my opinion. It is very difficult for me to say which chance comes next. It probably wont be until Late November when I issue my final forecast when I have an opinion to offer on that.
Arctic Sea Ice, now Arctic Sea Ice is a very uncertain winter forecasting factor, perhaps more so than the others! (If that is even possible . The Arctic Sea for 2014, as you can see, is above what we saw in previous years. Now, it is very uncertain how Arctic sea Ice affects the NAO, although don’t get fooled into the idea that a year of “Good” or generous Ice means we will see a large amount of Blocking, that is not the Case. Generally when seeing such a High amount of Arctic sea Ice it helps to retain the Cold over the Polar regions, which in some instances this means less cold is pushed Southwards, although this is Incredibly Uncertain.
QBO – Qbo very negative during Winter 2014-15.
Now, a very negative QBO does not guarantee a colder than average Winter. The QBO (Quasi Biennel Oscillation), is an oscillation of Cold and dry, warm and wet stratospheric conditions over the Equatorial belt in very much layman’s terms. A negative QBO, can aid the formation of Sudden Stratospheric Warming and therefore push colder conditions into the UK. Although again, other factors are usually more important and override the affects of a SSW due to a negative QBO. For example, a negative QBO leads to a SSW, which is not able to perform Troposphere down-welling due to such a high solar activity causing a positive NAO. (I hope this doesn’t happen in Winter 2014-15 for those of you Snow hopers). Although, a very Strong SSW will usually over ride the Jet Stream. As you can see from the chart below, there will be a very negative QBO over Winter 2014-15. So, what can I conclude from this? Well, I think we will see a few cold snaps during this Winter, although they will be very few and far between. Overall I think we have more chance of seeing a colder than average Winter this year than we did last year. I think we have an equal chance of seeing a Normal Winter as we do a Mild Winter, with less chance of Colder than average conditions. Although I think, due to these various factors looking “good”, we are likely to see a very cold snap at one point this Winter. When this occurs, we will have to wait and see. As always, many thanks for reading, and have a great week Kasim.
UK Winter weather guidance: “2014/15″. Brief synopsis of factors and conclusion. *New Update: Is on the 20th of October, Let’s Hope something “Better” is Signaled for Cold/Snow Watchers at that time
Before I start On My Detailed Seasonal Winter 2014 Forecast, I would like to make clear that winter forecasting in the UK, and it is advised you do not take any winter forecasts seriously. Recent newspaper headlines such as “Coldest Winter in 1000 years”, are a good joke, I advise you do not listen to them, however that is up to you. Hopefully this page will give you a more in depth and researched Winter forecast, although you must remember it is extremely experimental, and uncertain: The physics and mechanics which drive our atmosphere are very complicated, there fore it is near impossible to predict the outcome of the “Jet Stream”, etc, for Winter 2014-15, I hope you enjoy my post, which is for the purpose of giving a brief consensus rather than a “forecast” as such. The El Nino Southern Oscillation, Quasi Benneil Oscillation, Solar Activity, Northern Siberia Snow Cover and the seasonal models will help provide some uncertain clues as to where the Winter of 2014-15 may head Weather wise in he UK.
Good evening everyone, whilst I have been busy teasing everyone by posting snow pictures regarding Winter 2015 in the UK on my Facebook page, getting everyone excited at the prospects of another Winter and what sort of weather it may bring, I thought I would have another go at predicting what kind of Winter we may be in for this year. A detailed look at Solar activity, some weather models, past winters, the current El Nino situation and more. So grab a cuppa, and enjoy the read. Winter forecasting is very difficult, and is more for fun than anything else. We can produce a forecast of what is likely to happen based on what information we have available, but since the science of the longer range weather forecast is at such an early stage, it is impossible to tell with viable accuracy. One thing is for sure though – a Cold winter in the UK for 2014-15 would be more than appreciated by me and others
Solar Activity; still moderate for 2014 during the Winter ahead.
First up is a look at solar activity. What is Solar Activity? – In laymans terms it is the amount of sun spots observed on the sun through a specific time range. Solar Activity is always changing it’s rate of sunspot activity. The amount of sun spots observed in a given period is usually correlated to the solar cycle, an 11 year cycle of varying solar activity. During the Iconic Winter of 2009-10, solar activity was at a supreme all time low. This, arguably, caused the fantastically cold and snowy winter which we experienced. There is an idea that period of intense low solar activity are linked to weakening of the jet stream. During the Winter of 2014-15; solar activity will be average. We have just finished the peak of the current solar cycle, and are in “moderate activity” levels. Does this mean that we will see an “average” Winter? No, the waxing and waning (which is unpredictable), of solar activity has bigger impacts, and there are many more factors at play. Read of those below
El Nino, Impacts on UK Winter 2014-15; a weak based Modoki El Nino.
What on earth is the El Nino? Basically the El Nino is a period of warmer than average sea surface temperatures across the Central Pacific Ocean. A Classic El Nino, such as the one experienced in 1997, usually leads to a strong jet stream pushing across the Atlantic and into the UK. Although this again is subject to being a mis understood element, as the Winter of 2013/14 had a La Nina (opposite of El Nino), and had a fiercely strong jet stream. What’s slightly different about this year, is that a Modoki (Central Based), El Nino is being predicted for the Winter. The likelihood of a weak Modoki El Nino is high this year. A Modoki El Nino is correlated to a colder than average winter for the Europe area. A weak Modoki El Nino is generally correlated to a slightly colder than average Winter. This, put into consideration, is perhaps a good sign for cold/snow lovers
Snow Cover over the Siberian Plane and Westwards – How it pushes West during Autumn 2014 is crucial.
Snow cover is a very important factor, especially as we move further ahead towards the Winter season. What we are looking for is a large volume of snow cover building up over Sibera and pushing Westwards towards Eastern Europe etc. This usually leads to an increase in high pressure over the region with high snow cover, leading to a “block”, which subsequently leads to Northern Blocking, bringing mid latitudes like the UK colder winter weather. During this year, snow cover is fairly well developed so far. Importantly, we would need to keep a steady increase through this month and into November, so that by early November much of Eastern Europe is in white out conditions . Below you will find the latest snow cover imagery, and some mode forecasts for Northern.Hemisphere temperature through Autumn, this is important as lower temps = higher snow cover, and a greater chance of cold for us…
Now, weather models are very uncertain to use for Winter forecasting. They are not accurate (Ever), although they are interesting to view, and if they are all leaning towards a certain idea, strongly, then that can help produce confidence pointing in a certain way. I do rate weather models lowly, and will not be going into my “Final and Official” Winter forecast issued in late November, whereas last year they did. So far, the general consensus is for a weak Modoki El Nino to drive near normal temperatures with moderate solar activity leading to some twists and turns this Winter, and overall a near normal affair. Lets see, if these long range models, and the “QBO”, which we still have to look at, are pointing in a certain way. I have to say, this part of the forecast is looking especially interesting…
QBO, The uncertain – Stratospheric impact – Very Negative this Winter.
The QBO (Quasi Biennial Oscillation), is an oscillation of 4 periods of winds at the equatorial period. Generally speaking, in a “perfect world”, a negative QBO would lead to enhanced stratospheric warming (at a sudden rate), over Northern latitudes, leading to cold, wintry conditions across the UK. Now the thing is, generally a SSW (Sudden stratospheric warming), event occurs, and may not always produce Northern Blocking in the correct way to bring cold, snowy Winter in the UK. Yes, a negative QBO is correlated with increased blocking, although this blocking is fickle, more so in 2014, and never always sets up in a way in which the UK is provided with colder than average conditions (Winter wonderland . This year, a negative SSW is indicated. Although with an El Nino present during Winter 2014-15 it would be difficult for Troposphere propagation of the warming and blocking formation, unfortunately. Although it is still possible. This is a fairly good, not a bad sign anyway for the Snow lovers among you
The CFS, a very unreliable weather model, is “going for”, an unsettled Winter. Generally low pressure over and to the North of the UK would be brining average or above average temperaures along with high rainfall totals. This is an undesirable set up! The monthly forecasts, so temperatures generally around the seasonal average overall. Something interesting to pick up on is the stagnant mass of cold air over East Europe for Dec/Jan. It looks like they will experience a very Harsh Winter this time round. What impacts will this have on us? Perhaps a sign for increased high pressure over the UK, something a little more settled, and frosty, but near average temperatures sadly. The CFS however would like to see the Jet stream through the UK. This, pattern put into 1, gives the general idea of the chance of colder shots of weather for the UK with a Southerly running jet stream;
JMA; Winter outlook unreleased, going for an Unsettled end to Autumn.
Although the JMA’s outlook for Winter will not be ready until November, the latest outlook for December is showing a trend for unsettled weather with the jet close. Although with a dangerously close area of high pressure over Southern Greenland, this may lead to colder, wintry weather pushing Southwards at times, especially over December
Jamstech Winter 2014-15; a colder than average Winter.
The Jamstech IOD, which personally is a weather model I rate rather lowly, is forecasting a colder than average winter, indicated by the blue colours over the British Isles. My general idea of a near normal Winter, is parked comfortably somewhat by the QBO, El Nino and previous analogue patterns + hoog van del dool and snow cover predictions (scroll down to see those in more details). Also by the prediction of colder than average temperatures by some weather models. Of course, a Winter forecast is bound to change. Winter, in the UK, is arguably the most interesting, uncertain and volatile pattern, and so it is rather ironic for me to produce a “forecast”. I hope you enjoyed this little Winter 2014-15 UK Weather forecast, feel free to share it
GoodEvening Guys I hope You’re enjoying the current Boring Weather in the UK;). As it’s Early September it is Time for a New UK Winter 2014-15 Weather Forecast and Here We Go, I’ll Be Running Over Some Weather Models And Also New Predictions For The QBO, ENSO, Solar Activity And Much More And See what the Pointers Are For This Winter:). As You Know it can go in 3 Directions (Mild,Normal,Cold), And Although It’s Highly Uncertain, Speculative Etc, We’re Going to Try and Use These Factors To see where we May* Be Heading For Winter Weather This Year I Hope this Year the Snow falls Good as all us Weather Enthusiasts (and Snow Lovers), will be Pleased after the Painful Winter of 2013-14, In the Factors Below there will be a Variety of Good News and Bad News, As we Take a Detailed Look at some Winter Weather Pointers, I hope you are in a Comfy Seat and Enjoy
CFS, A Tricky & Sometimes Silly Weather Model
Now, the CFS. The CFS Weather Model Is one of the most Uncertain and one of the Forecast models I do not trust very much in it’s Long Range Predictions, It’s Going for a Cold Old Snowy Winter 2014-15 UK, With Low Pressure NE Of the UK bringing Easterly Winds and Snow flurries into parts of the UK. This would be a Very Nice scenario and I think the CFS is basing it somewhat of It’s El Nino 3/4 Region Forecasts which are Going for Warm Water over the El Nino Area of the Pacific, (A “Modoki” El Nino), which does Lead to Cooler Weather conditions across Europe with Increased Snow, according to Previous Years with a Similar Set Up. As many Other Models Are Beginning To “Hint” At, the CFS Puts the Jet Stream through Southern USA Which Would Mean the Jet Stream is a Little Shorter Loosing It’s Energy over the East US Coast Allowing Perhaps a Quieter “Cooler”, Set Up over the UK, this is a Poss Scenario this Winter In my opinion given the Modoki/ Quite a Northern Based El Nino Also allowing for a Southerly Sunk Jet For 2015 in particular
Now, time for a Look at the Met Office Model for Weather 2014 Winter UK, another Difficult and Rather Uncertain Model to Work With
Alike the Previous Update, I’m Starting off Again with the Weather Models I do Not Like first and Then Moving towards Good Old Solar, QBO And ENSO, And Possible Pressure Scenarios Bringing A Certain “Type” Of Winter Weather Across the UK:). Unfortunately the Met Office have not Updated their September Forecast for Winter otherwise we Would be Able to See their Predictions for that Period (Grrrr), although It is Worth Viewing their August Predictions for November, December and January, which is for a Very, Very Unsettled Pattern and Stormy To, You may of Heard me Mention This I do not Trust the Met Office Models, Although Importantly to Point Out, Mild Stormy Winters Often Come In Runs Alike The Period In the Late 1980′s, In fact Below this Met Office Model Showing a Very, Very Stormy Early Winter and New Year I Compare the Last 5 Winters And Predictions For This Winter To That Of The 80′s from the Cold At the Start to the Mild at the End
Graph Comparing Winters Of The 80′s To The Current Period
Now I like Interesting Matches on Winter Analogues, and I’ve Come across One here;). The Winters 1984/5/6 had a La Nina Period with a recovery to a (Strong) El Nino by Winter 1986/1987. These Winters All had a Rising QBO and then a Shoot down into a Nice Negative NAO By Winter 86/87. Interestingly in Winters 2010/11/12 and /13/14 we had a La Nina Period, Before a Shoot Up into a Very Slight El Nino for Winter 2014/2015. We also have a Rising (Very Similar), QBO Pattern in these Winters Before a Negative QBO in Winter 2014/2015. In the Winter of 86/87 which saw a Switch to the La Nina to an El Nino and from a Positive QBO to a vastly Negative One, the NAO was Very Similar to Previous Years in the “Run”. The corresponding NAO doesn’t really match, at all!;), A widely swinging NAO in the Past few Years, and in this 80′s Period we had Generally a Near Normal NAO over the Select Period. Now, my Attention turns to Solar Activity so Read Below for Much More Detail In that
Generally Solar Activity is Moderate and Peaking after a long Haul in the Dead-Zone for Solar Activity in Previous Years During the Winters of 2011-2014. Solar Activity was Low during the Years we’re interested in in the 80′s, which is Probably why the NAO stayed in Moderate Values rather than Spiking Up alike the Winters in the 2010′s. During the Winter of 1986/7, Solar Activity was Low, this Probably Pulled us Back from Experiencing a Highly Positive NAO from the El Nino Event. The Winter of 2014-15 will have much Higher Solar Activity and Generally a Similar QBO Pattern, although much less Strong of an El Nino, this Perhaps Leads Me to Forecast a Slightly Higher NAO Than Neutral Say +0.2, So Better Than Last Year Perhaps. So So far it’s Looking Better (Compared to Last Year , With Ideas Running Down the Near Normal Type Winter, Some Snow, Some Mild. Much better than Last Year
Now, I thought I’d Take A Final Look at Siberian Snow Cover and the BCC/CFS Weather Model For Further Winter Thoughts
The BCC Weather Model is Going for a Stormy Start to Winter with Low Pressure over the UK, Above average Rainfall and Temperatures:) Interestingly, this is the Same as the UKMO Prediction. Let’s see if the CFS Concurs. Below is a Comparison of the BCC and CFS for the Nov-Jan Period. Now the “Weak” CFS Chart shows a Light Blue Area (Low Pressure), to the North of the UK Early Winter, as does the BCC, Perhaps a Stormy Start to Winter, then Becoming Cooler After January, or in Late Jan? It’s all Very Uncertain and as Science of Long Range Forecasts is So Uncertain every Year is treated Unique, so Even though Analogues are Going for a Near Normal Winter, and I’m “Thinking”, in General a Winter where the Snow may Come Later. There isn’t a Better Place to use the Phrase “Anything Could and Will Happen”. Thank you for Reading this Long range Winter “Speculation”, I hope you enjoyed
*Please Return On The 1st of September for a Detailed Forecast (Rather than Mere Speculation) on the Winter Including Europe, Highly Uncertain But More Detail, Thank You *.
Good Evening, Now, Winter 2014/15 Weather Forecast UK, It’s Really Very Early, but as Requested, here we go. This is Not a Forecast however, it’s merely Speculation and is “Just For Fun”:).
It’s Too far off. It’s simply too far out to be “Realistic” When it comes to UKWeather. The atmosphere here is Extremely Dynamic. We can Try and Use Analogue Year’s, Sea Surface Temperatures, Solar Activity, QBO, and the Seasonal Models to Try and conduct a Forecast. But Ultimately the Unpredictability of the Physics Surrounding our Atmosphere which Drvie the Weather is at an Early Stage, this Comes to Play more in Short Term Weather Forecasting, although does Apply Considerably for Long Range Forecasting To. Now, Those of you Tracking My Research into the Past 100 Winters of All the Parameters (QBO,ENSO,El Nino, Solar), Unfortunately that is Still in the Verification Process, although I havee got some Interesting Analogue info based on Previous ENSO Modoki Years + El Nino as Expected this Year Below, these make for Interesting *Interpretations* .
What I thought would be Good was to Have a Look at the Huug Van Den Dool Winter 2014/15 Analogue Charts and then View the Past Similar ENSO Years and Their Parameters, To see if we have any “Super Analogues”.
Before I release my Own Analogue Based Forecasts for this Winter, why not take a look at a NOAA based forecast for December, January and February into 2015. Now, Alike my Winter Analogue Forecasts (Which have been Completed for the US, and show a Mixture of conditions, but on the whole, Cold, for the USA). In terms of how this would complicate our conditions, in the Analogue years for ENSO including 09/10, 02/03, etc, there’s a Huge mixture, although Compared to the Average a Modoki Based El Nino Does* have mostly Cold Winters attached for the UK. Now, the Analogue years for ENSO, I have produced a Chart showing the QBO, Solar Activity, And ENSO, And NAO For the ENSO Analogue Years, (That is Based on the ENSO Analogues, to see how Similar the Other ENSO Analogues were to this Winter’s prediction Etc. So the First Image = Some Analogue Analysis From Previous ENSO Similar Years then Adding in Other Parameters, Then The Huug Van Den Dool Prediction Based On Previous Winter Analogues By Sea Surface Temperature
For This Period We’re Expecting A Negative QBO, Moderate Solar Activity, And A Weak El Nino. This Is Actually Not Far Off From The Winter Of 76/77, Which Had A Severely Cold Winter for the UK. Now, You have to be Realistic Though. Although one Thing which I Find Amazing Is How Much Solar Activity *Appears* To Impact NAO Through Years Of The Modoki El Nino Greatly. So Moderate Solar Activity For This Year Would Lead To A Near Average Winter. Although, It’s Very, Very far Out to have any Realistic Viewpoint. Even Though*, the Pointers are Towards an Average Winter this Year, what happens in October and November is Fundamentally Critical. Iff we see slow and little development of Siberian Snow Cover, this is not a good sign. If we however see Fast (Rapid) development of Siberian Snow Cover and this extends into Scandinavia to, then that can help the Development of Northern Blocking. Now as Cold Winters come in Rows and so do Mild Winters, this is another thing which makes me Lean towards the Mild idea, although it really is Incredibly Uncertain .
Please also *Be Aware*, that the Figures for the 2014-2015 Winter you see on the Chart above are Projections only for NASA Solar Prediction, IRI/CPC ENSO Prediction, The Current QBO, etc, so Take it with a Huge Pinch of Salt. In the Next Update I’ll have Plenty More, Including The Seasonal Models, and Much Much More In fact. It will be on the 1st of September, exciting stuff. See you soon, and thank you very much for Reading, Kasim .
Ready for UK Winter forecast 2014 atmospheric forecasts? So am I *The next update will be released on the 1st of August., that update will have more certainty in it, and will be much more in – depth, so *please return then for a more detailed update on the 1st of August, thank you* *After The USA Prediction? Find That By Clicking *Here*.
*In this latest update, I take a preliminary look back at last year’s festive season, and importantly, see how I’ve done. I also look at the May Sea Surface temperature to suggest NAO for next UK winter .
*Last year’s, I for the UK Winter 13- 2014, said, a predominantly cold with snow, and Northern blocking, being a dominant feature. This, was not the outcome. Infact, we experienced one of the mildest, wettest, and stormiest UK Winter’s for a long, long time (Or maybe safer to say the De Icing Cans and Snow Shovels have Gathered Dust since March 2013. Perhaps it was the El Nino and high solar activity that impacted the jet stream to deliver a serious jet streme to the UK. I have changed my long range forecasting technique, in the upcoming months I will be closely looking at the ENSO, PDO, solar and SST’s and will be using slightly less of the seasonal models for the 2014- 2015 season to see possible conditions/ temperature for the UK and Ireland :).
http://www.skepticalscience.com/uk-winter-2013-14.html – An excellent article documenting the extraordinary stormy, wet, and mild conditions experienced in the previous festive period. Well, I’m glad that’s over,
As Well As NAO Winter Forecast For The Upcoming Winter ( 2014 / 15 ) .
It’s incredibly early to even hint, on what the upcoming season could have in store for the UK, whether it’s cold, and very snowy, or the opposite, or a lull in any action. Due to the volatile And unpredictable element to the Atmosphere, which we “just haven’t” got to grips with fully, it’s always going to be very difficult to come up with a winter 2014/15 forecast, even in say, November :.)
NAO For The Upcoming 2015 Season (Next 5 Paragraphs), Here you will also find an explanation as to why the NAO is incredibly Uncertain, and Read on to find an Explanation of the NAO, and how the May SST’s Impact over the Festive, Traditionally Snow – Shovel and De Icer Using Season ;).
One of the things we do look at for an out look though, are the sea surface temperatures on the mid-Atlantic. This, is usually the first, very low confidence indication of Winter forecasting. – It runs off the idea that what we call a “tripole”, which is basically ribbons Of warm surface Sea temperature East of New York, across to The UK, cold SST’s, from around Florida to North Africa, and Warm again from around the Caribbean, to the Canary Islands. This “Tripole”, if found in the month of May, usually tries to repeat itself again in the Winter months in the same year. Now the “Big problem” we have here is, this pattern does not always lead to formation of blocking, and only around 60%, of the time, does this pattern Repeat Itself in the winter months ahead, for Europe and indeed the United Kingdom, in fact during 2009 may we saw no triple (similar to May 2014), yet 2009/10 was very cold & snowy, just hinting how uncertain this is when trying to forecast. Also, a positive NAO can bring cold conditions, for example during a Polar maritime flow, North Western areas of the UK & Ireland including Northern Ireland, Scotland can see potentially snowfall and cool conditions, although in the last couple of sentences I am not taking about winter weather 2014 UK, as it’s to far out to say anything reasonable about whether you’ll be preparing to use that De Icer or Snow Shovel This Winter :)
Okay, So What Exactly Is The “North Atlantic Oscillaion”, In Layman’s Terms? .
Many of you have seen me talking about the “NAO” in my updates :.) But what Is it? Well, it stands for the “North Atlantic Oscillation”, and is a measure of the index of the configuration of pressure across the North Atlantic: it is a fairly basic concept when studying Met :.) A negative NAO corresponds to lower pressure South of around 50′ North, than North o around 50′ North in the Atlantic (tthis is Northern blocking, which would mean cold, snow, blocking Winter UK & Europe. Although a positive NAO means higher pressure South of around 50′ North, and lower pressure South of 50′ North, so above average temperatures :.) It is important to understand that the NAO is not a driver of our weather, it is merely a measure of the index of pressure in the North Atlantic :.) The negative NAO, doesn’t always mean cold for the UK. For example, a ridge may set up across the UK although across the North Atlantic, a negative NAO Set up is set up, meaning an overall negative NAO. This is why, it’s very tricky to work with the NAO, as a negatively signaled NAO may not always equate to cold weather in the UK, it can sometimes mean just cold weather for the North Atlantic, or mainland Europe. :.) Here is an example of a negative NAO, In Winter 2010/2011. Although as mentioned before, the NAO can be positive and Ireland, Scotland and Northern Ireland can actually experience Wintry conditions .
And for this Very Reason, It’s a Very Limited, and Uncertain Viewpoint.
When Determining The UK Weather For Winter Forecast 2015 UK / 2014.. Let’s Have a Look At The May 2014 SST’s Anyway…
Why so uncertain of the NAO?
It’s very important to understand the uncertainty. And you’ve probably got bored reading this it’s very lengthy whether you’re at home or at the office I do apologise! As I say before, there are numerous caveats involved. This “signal”, doesn’t usually work, only around 65%, at most, of the time. For example, previous winters, have yield a great deal of cold weather, with a positive NAO signal from the May SST’s. Oppositely, a negative NAO signal for Winter from the SSTs, can actually lead Into a positive NAO Winter, for example, last Winter. That’s why, when forecast Winter 2014/15, it’s going to be very difficult to put a forecast together. Please join me in August, when I take a detailed view at the El Nino, PDO, solar activity, to try and come up with some sort of more insightful forecast. For now, I’ll leave you with the current SST’s from May of 2014. This is a positive NAO hint For Winter 2015, although please digest the Information which you have previously read on this blog . And although this update does favor mild conditions in the UK, interestingly, the Atmosphere has every capacity to go either way at this stage, please return in late July/ early August for the next update, and see what the latest drivers have on impacting the conditions exprienced
ENSO Insert. – Impacts On Upcoming?
Weak Nino, and Weak Modoki?
ENSO insert – The ENSO, (El Nino/Southern Oscillation), is something we closely look at to give impacts for the Winter. It’s links to UK weather are highly uncertain, and the science is new. What exactly is an El Nino? An El Nino is a time frame in which the sea off the Coast of Peru heading into the Central Pacific is warmer than average, and the La Nina is the exact opposite. Now, when coming to forecast 2014/15 winter for the United Kingdom, England etc, we have to look at the Atlantic to see how the El Nino impacts the Atlantic. Indeed, we will be in an El Nino phase until at least March 2015. Just like all weather/science, it’s deeply uncertain as to how the El Nino relates to Winter weather in the UK, infact, it’s so uncertain there is little reason for me to write a blog on it! But, an El Nino usually leads to lower pressure or lower heights and increased heavy snow and cold for the East of the States, this usually has the capacity to drives an increased jet stream into the Atlantic, and UK. So, perhaps an El Nino gives an increased chance of a mild winter ahead this / next year? Perhaps, although combined with an increasingly Neutral QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation), this is an average winter hint, which leaves us, at the conclusion of a near normal type Winter for the UK. Of course, this far off it’s dreadfully uncertain, and I’ll have more updates in the future. Now of course a negative (Easterly) QBO, would equate to increased Siberian blocking, and an increased snow & cold risk for UK & Euro for UK Winter forecast 2014/ 2015.
Solar Activity & Influences.
Moderate Flare/Ray/Sunspots during this Year, and Next Year (2014/15).
Now, solar activity, just like El Nino, and QBO, is a very uncertain factor. The reason it’s difficult for me to predict weather using solar activity is because the affects of unpredictable flares are uncertain, which makes Solar a very difficult technique, especially when studying Met. The fact that each factor makes up no more than 10% of this long range forecast, means the varying guidance given from each factor is often “true”, but when added to each other, make a highly uncertain outlook. For example, A + A + A = A, but A + B + A =? 2 A and 1 B (2 cold and 1 warm), which means, any forecast from this guidance would be uncertain either way. The Solar activity, latest for July 2014, is just finished peaking from cycle 24, and is currently, in moderate activity and will continue for 2015 year. This could mean increased Atlantic activity for UK for the upcoming Winter 2014 Forecast season. Here’s the latest solar activity & forecast for future years^.
Acknowledgements on this Blog:
: NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures.
Wikipedia ENSO Chart, typical El Nino Pattern for Winter.
NASA Solar Cycle Prediction.
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Thank You for reading, don’t forget to join us in August,which will include the more detailed seasonal view .
This leaves us with some significant uncertainty for UK & Ireland, in the next update we will cover a lot more ground. To give you an idea we will be looking at the Met Office model, Long Range Brazilian, and 6 other Models, as well as the usual stuff and more. Thank you for reading.
Now In terms of Winter Preparedness, and Using That winter shovel or de – icer, there was none of that in the previous one, but who knows what could happen this year