It’s Too far off. It’s simply too far out to be “Realistic” When it comes to UKWeather. The atmosphere here is Extremely Dynamic. We can Try and Use Analogue Year’s, Sea Surface Temperatures, Solar Activity, QBO, and the Seasonal Models to Try and conduct a Forecast. But Ultimately the Unpredictability of the Physics Surrounding our Atmosphere which Drvie the Weather is at an Early Stage, this Comes to Play more in Short Term Weather Forecasting, although does Apply Considerably for Long Range Forecasting To. Now, Those of you Tracking My Research into the Past 100 Winters of All the Parameters (QBO,ENSO,El Nino, Solar), Unfortunately that is Still in the Verification Process, although I havee got some Interesting Analogue info based on Previous ENSO Modoki Years + El Nino as Expected this Year Below, these make for Interesting *Interpretations* .
What I thought would be Good was to Have a Look at the Huug Van Den Dool Winter 2014/15 Analogue Charts and then View the Past Similar ENSO Years and Their Parameters, To see if we have any “Super Analogues”.
Before I release my Own Analogue Based Forecasts for this Winter, why not take a look at a NOAA based forecast for December, January and February into 2015. Now, Alike my Winter Analogue Forecasts (Which have been Completed for the US, and show a Mixture of conditions, but on the whole, Cold, for the USA). In terms of how this would complicate our conditions, in the Analogue years for ENSO including 09/10, 02/03, etc, there’s a Huge mixture, although Compared to the Average a Modoki Based El Nino Does* have mostly Cold Winters attached for the UK. Now, the Analogue years for ENSO, I have produced a Chart showing the QBO, Solar Activity, And ENSO, And NAO For the ENSO Analogue Years, (That is Based on the ENSO Analogues, to see how Similar the Other ENSO Analogues were to this Winter’s prediction Etc. So the First Image = Some Analogue Analysis From Previous ENSO Similar Years then Adding in Other Parameters, Then The Huug Van Den Dool Prediction Based On Previous Winter Analogues By Sea Surface Temperature
For This Period We’re Expecting A Negative QBO, Moderate Solar Activity, And A Weak El Nino. This Is Actually Not Far Off From The Winter Of 76/77, Which Had A Severely Cold Winter for the UK. Now, You have to be Realistic Though. Although one Thing which I Find Amazing Is How Much Solar Activity *Appears* To Impact NAO Through Years Of The Modoki El Nino Greatly. So Moderate Solar Activity For This Year Would Lead To A Near Average Winter. Although, It’s Very, Very far Out to have any Realistic Viewpoint. Even Though*, the Pointers are Towards an Average Winter this Year, what happens in October and November is Fundamentally Critical. Iff we see slow and little development of Siberian Snow Cover, this is not a good sign. If we however see Fast (Rapid) development of Siberian Snow Cover and this extends into Scandinavia to, then that can help the Development of Northern Blocking. Now as Cold Winters come in Rows and so do Mild Winters, this is another thing which makes me Lean towards the Mild idea, although it really is Incredibly Uncertain .
Please also *Be Aware*, that the Figures for the 2014-2015 Winter you see on the Chart above are Projections only for NASA Solar Prediction, IRI/CPC ENSO Prediction, The Current QBO, etc, so Take it with a Huge Pinch of Salt. In the Next Update I’ll have Plenty More, Including The Seasonal Models, and Much Much More In fact. It will be on the 1st of September, exciting stuff. See you soon, and thank you very much for Reading, Kasim .
Ready for UK Winter forecast 2014 atmospheric forecasts? So am I *The next update will be released on the 1st of August., that update will have more certainty in it, and will be much more in – depth, so *please return then for a more detailed update on the 1st of August, thank you* *After The USA Prediction? Find That By Clicking *Here*.
*In this latest update, I take a preliminary look back at last year’s festive season, and importantly, see how I’ve done. I also look at the May Sea Surface temperature to suggest NAO for next UK winter .
*Last year’s, I for the UK Winter 13- 2014, said, a predominantly cold with snow, and Northern blocking, being a dominant feature. This, was not the outcome. Infact, we experienced one of the mildest, wettest, and stormiest UK Winter’s for a long, long time (Or maybe safer to say the De Icing Cans and Snow Shovels have Gathered Dust since March 2013. Perhaps it was the El Nino and high solar activity that impacted the jet stream to deliver a serious jet streme to the UK. I have changed my long range forecasting technique, in the upcoming months I will be closely looking at the ENSO, PDO, solar and SST’s and will be using slightly less of the seasonal models for the 2014- 2015 season to see possible conditions/ temperature for the UK and Ireland :).
http://www.skepticalscience.com/uk-winter-2013-14.html – An excellent article documenting the extraordinary stormy, wet, and mild conditions experienced in the previous festive period. Well, I’m glad that’s over,
As Well As NAO Winter Forecast For The Upcoming Winter ( 2014 / 15 ) .
It’s incredibly early to even hint, on what the upcoming season could have in store for the UK, whether it’s cold, and very snowy, or the opposite, or a lull in any action. Due to the volatile And unpredictable element to the Atmosphere, which we “just haven’t” got to grips with fully, it’s always going to be very difficult to come up with a winter 2014/15 forecast, even in say, November :.)
NAO For The Upcoming 2015 Season (Next 5 Paragraphs), Here you will also find an explanation as to why the NAO is incredibly Uncertain, and Read on to find an Explanation of the NAO, and how the May SST’s Impact over the Festive, Traditionally Snow – Shovel and De Icer Using Season ;).
One of the things we do look at for an out look though, are the sea surface temperatures on the mid-Atlantic. This, is usually the first, very low confidence indication of Winter forecasting. – It runs off the idea that what we call a “tripole”, which is basically ribbons Of warm surface Sea temperature East of New York, across to The UK, cold SST’s, from around Florida to North Africa, and Warm again from around the Caribbean, to the Canary Islands. This “Tripole”, if found in the month of May, usually tries to repeat itself again in the Winter months in the same year. Now the “Big problem” we have here is, this pattern does not always lead to formation of blocking, and only around 60%, of the time, does this pattern Repeat Itself in the winter months ahead, for Europe and indeed the United Kingdom, in fact during 2009 may we saw no triple (similar to May 2014), yet 2009/10 was very cold & snowy, just hinting how uncertain this is when trying to forecast. Also, a positive NAO can bring cold conditions, for example during a Polar maritime flow, North Western areas of the UK & Ireland including Northern Ireland, Scotland can see potentially snowfall and cool conditions, although in the last couple of sentences I am not taking about winter weather 2014 UK, as it’s to far out to say anything reasonable about whether you’ll be preparing to use that De Icer or Snow Shovel This Winter :)
Okay, So What Exactly Is The “North Atlantic Oscillaion”, In Layman’s Terms? .
Many of you have seen me talking about the “NAO” in my updates :.) But what Is it? Well, it stands for the “North Atlantic Oscillation”, and is a measure of the index of the configuration of pressure across the North Atlantic: it is a fairly basic concept when studying Met :.) A negative NAO corresponds to lower pressure South of around 50′ North, than North o around 50′ North in the Atlantic (tthis is Northern blocking, which would mean cold, snow, blocking Winter UK & Europe. Although a positive NAO means higher pressure South of around 50′ North, and lower pressure South of 50′ North, so above average temperatures :.) It is important to understand that the NAO is not a driver of our weather, it is merely a measure of the index of pressure in the North Atlantic :.) The negative NAO, doesn’t always mean cold for the UK. For example, a ridge may set up across the UK although across the North Atlantic, a negative NAO Set up is set up, meaning an overall negative NAO. This is why, it’s very tricky to work with the NAO, as a negatively signaled NAO may not always equate to cold weather in the UK, it can sometimes mean just cold weather for the North Atlantic, or mainland Europe. :.) Here is an example of a negative NAO, In Winter 2010/2011. Although as mentioned before, the NAO can be positive and Ireland, Scotland and Northern Ireland can actually experience Wintry conditions .
And for this Very Reason, It’s a Very Limited, and Uncertain Viewpoint.
When Determining The UK Weather For Winter Forecast 2015 UK / 2014.. Let’s Have a Look At The May 2014 SST’s Anyway…
Why so uncertain of the NAO?
It’s very important to understand the uncertainty. And you’ve probably got bored reading this it’s very lengthy whether you’re at home or at the office I do apologise! As I say before, there are numerous caveats involved. This “signal”, doesn’t usually work, only around 65%, at most, of the time. For example, previous winters, have yield a great deal of cold weather, with a positive NAO signal from the May SST’s. Oppositely, a negative NAO signal for Winter from the SSTs, can actually lead Into a positive NAO Winter, for example, last Winter. That’s why, when forecast Winter 2014/15, it’s going to be very difficult to put a forecast together. Please join me in August, when I take a detailed view at the El Nino, PDO, solar activity, to try and come up with some sort of more insightful forecast. For now, I’ll leave you with the current SST’s from May of 2014. This is a positive NAO hint For Winter 2015, although please digest the Information which you have previously read on this blog . And although this update does favor mild conditions in the UK, interestingly, the Atmosphere has every capacity to go either way at this stage, please return in late July/ early August for the next update, and see what the latest drivers have on impacting the conditions exprienced
ENSO Insert. – Impacts On Upcoming?
Weak Nino, and Weak Modoki?
ENSO insert – The ENSO, (El Nino/Southern Oscillation), is something we closely look at to give impacts for the Winter. It’s links to UK weather are highly uncertain, and the science is new. What exactly is an El Nino? An El Nino is a time frame in which the sea off the Coast of Peru heading into the Central Pacific is warmer than average, and the La Nina is the exact opposite. Now, when coming to forecast 2014/15 winter for the United Kingdom, England etc, we have to look at the Atlantic to see how the El Nino impacts the Atlantic. Indeed, we will be in an El Nino phase until at least March 2015. Just like all weather/science, it’s deeply uncertain as to how the El Nino relates to Winter weather in the UK, infact, it’s so uncertain there is little reason for me to write a blog on it! But, an El Nino usually leads to lower pressure or lower heights and increased heavy snow and cold for the East of the States, this usually has the capacity to drives an increased jet stream into the Atlantic, and UK. So, perhaps an El Nino gives an increased chance of a mild winter ahead this / next year? Perhaps, although combined with an increasingly Neutral QBO (Quasi-biennial oscillation), this is an average winter hint, which leaves us, at the conclusion of a near normal type Winter for the UK. Of course, this far off it’s dreadfully uncertain, and I’ll have more updates in the future. Now of course a negative (Easterly) QBO, would equate to increased Siberian blocking, and an increased snow & cold risk for UK & Euro for UK Winter forecast 2014/ 2015.
Solar Activity & Influences.
Moderate Flare/Ray/Sunspots during this Year, and Next Year (2014/15).
Now, solar activity, just like El Nino, and QBO, is a very uncertain factor. The reason it’s difficult for me to predict weather using solar activity is because the affects of unpredictable flares are uncertain, which makes Solar a very difficult technique, especially when studying Met. Piers Corbyn (of Weather Action), is one of the Solar world leaders, and understands these impacts. The fact that each factor makes up no more than 10% of this long range forecast, means the varying guidance given from each factor is often “true”, but when added to each other, make a highly uncertain outlook. For example, A + A + A = A, but A + B + A =? 2 A and 1 B (2 cold and 1 warm), which means, any forecast from this guidance would be uncertain either way. The Solar activity, latest for July 2014, is just finished peaking from cycle 24, and is currently, in moderate activity and will continue for 2015 year. This could mean increased Atlantic activity for UK for the upcoming Winter 2014 Forecast season. Here’s the latest solar activity & forecast for future years^.
Acknowledgements on this Blog:
: NOAA Sea Surface Temperatures.
Wikipedia ENSO Chart, typical El Nino Pattern for Winter.
NASA Solar Cycle Prediction.
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Thank You for reading, don’t forget to join us in August,which will include the more detailed seasonal view .
This leaves us with some significant uncertainty for UK & Ireland, in the next update we will cover a lot more ground. To give you an idea we will be looking at the Met Office model, Long Range Brazilian, and 6 other Models, as well as the usual stuff and more. Thank you for reading.
Recommended Long Range Winter forecasts from other Forecasters: Piers Corbyn Winter 2014-15 (Weather Action), AccuWeather, NetWeather, Met Office Winter 2014-15.
Now In terms of Winter Preparedness, and Using That winter shovel or de – icer, there was none of that in the previous one, but who knows what could happen this year