October 2013 UK Weather Forecast Update 1:Latest:
Good evening folks. In tonight’s blog, we’re going to have a quick look at October 2013 UK Weather Forecast, for the UK & Europe. Forecasting, this far out, is very uncertain, so I’ll keep you up to date, with an October update every 2 weeks as the model data is released. We’re only going to have a look at the CFS today, the CFS is incredibly unreliable. With consistency, however, the CFS is okay to a degree, and can be used to “back-up” ideas from other models. We’re going to be having a look at Europe, as well as the UK in today’s update. Snow, is insignificant during. October weather forecasts for the UK. it will frequently fall across the Scottish highlands, but elsewhere, it’s a fairly unimportant part of the forecast.
UK October 2013 Forecast Outlook Summary CFS:
The chart we’re having a look at today is the CFS 700mb anomalies chart for the globe. 700mb, is the “height” of the atmosphere which lies very roughly between the Jet stream and the surface, and gives a good idea as to the location & anatomy of areas of low & high pressure. Notice the blocking area of high pressure to the North of the UK, cold Easterly winds are propagating into the country with this. Very cool:
October 2013 Weather Outlook Summary:
That does not look great. A cold & wet October Weather Forecast/Outlook for much of the UK, Southern & Western Europe: High pressure out to the North East over Scandinavia would also mean cool weather here, although much drier. The CFS, however, as explained earlier; Only makes part of the puzzle. It’s very uncertain. Although, at times it has been known to pick out long range winter patterns, so one to take note of. Over the next few days, weeks & months I will continue to update the October forecast, looking at the various seasonal models. During the 10th of July, we’ll be having a Beijing climate center update for October. As we get closer to October, these updates will become more important and be much more detailed, so stay tuned for further October 2013 Forecasts and Weather Outlooks folks.