Good afternoon folks! It’s the start of a New Month & that means a Final & Official October 2013 UK Month Ahead Weather Forecast. In Today’s month ahead forecast we’ll have a look at some of the Latest Computer model forecasts for October, including the CFS, South Korean & BCC models, as well as over-viewing the GFS ENS as well as the MJO to conduct a more in depth Forecast for October 2013 UK Weather focusing on the more short term changes of the Weather. Remember if you’re not a Fan of Technical Forecasting there is always the option to Skip to the bottom of the post where you’ll find a conclusion. Long Range Forecasting is always fairly experimental, so Stay Tuned for further Updates throughout this Month which will update on the evolving UK Weather Forecast :). We’ll start first looking at the GFS ENS + MJO before diving into the CFS, BCC & South Korean Forecasts for October 2013.
MJO: October 2013 UK Weather Forecast:
First up is the MJO… What is the MJO? In “Layman’s Terms” - It’s an Oscillation of warm/cool/wet/dry conditions across the Tropics, the fluctuations of the MJO can impact UK Weather, especially now that we’re moving towards the Winter months and that’s when the MJO has a more distinct impact on UK Weather ;). The MJO at the moment is in Phase 6, and is Forecast to Remain in Phase 6/7/neutral for the remainder of October, Layman Say’s that the MJO is pointing towards a Dry/Fine October; The progression into Neutral territory does mean that more Unsettled/Classic Autumnal conditions may arrive during the final Few day’s of October 2013. Overall, the MJO is pointing to a Fine/Warm October 2013, Before it becomes more Unsettled with Lower pressure Possible by Late October (Roughly from the 21st/22nd), perhaps a Return to unsettled conditions. Here’s the Latest from the MJO (CPC), notice the Tail off into Neutral territory by Late October, which hinders the fine/dry Weather which may dominate early-mid October :) ;.
GFS ENS: October 2013 UK Weather Forecast:
The GFS ENS is Pointing at a similar scenario, Fine/Dry for this Early-Mid October phase (5th-15th In particular) before Temperatures slide & rainfall increases during Late October, Interesting the MJO also Points towards the Idea of a Fine/Dry start to the Month before Rainfall Increases & Temperatures Decrease by late October ;). Here’s the Latest GFS ENS Forecast going out into OcT, Notice the declining & rising Going on, Hinting at that Dry/Fine October before it all goes Pear Shaped;.
& October 2013 Forecast Conclusion + CFS, South Korean & BCC* Forecasts;
So, that’s it & over with for the in-depth October 2013 UK Weather forecast detailed, now time for a look at the Weather models which we look at to see how October 2013 will shape up overall. In depth, it looks like October 2013 will start on quite an Unsettled note (Especially this Week), before it gets Finer/Drier for early-Mid October, before temperatures decrease into Late October, and rainfall Increases, perhaps our first hint of proper Cool & Unsettled weather, not quite the W-word yet though ;).Below’s the South Korean & CFS & BCC. The South Korean model is hinting at High Pressure to be a dominant Feature across the East of the UK for October 2013; The CFS is hinting at a similar scenario with High Pressure over & to the East of the UK (As seen Below). This increases confidence of a rather Fine/Dry October 2013 overall with Perhaps Warmer/Finer conditions across the East. A Month of Warmth to start & for Mid-Month followed by a Late cool Spell would probably lead to a slightly Warmer month overall, the BCC also favors the idea of slightly higher Pressure than Normal for October 2013 UK. To conclude, and also to admit to Rambling, October 2013, UK, looks like being a fairly Warm/Dry&Fine affair across Central & Eastern areas, and especially for Early-Mid Month, by late month there is the Risk of more Autumnal conditions spreading into Western areas, and perhaps across all parts for a time to. As always this Forecast is Fairly Uncertain & will be updated regularly during October. Don’t forget to come back tomorrow for a Quick look at November 2013′s UK Foretasted Weather, stay Tuned :).