Welcome to KasimsWeatherWatcher’s July 2015 UK Weather Prediction, Warm & Thundery or a Damp Squib? Find out here :) Let’s see how July & August weather is likely to pan out in the UK, well, I think I’m not the only one who is hoping for some Summer sun & warmth (and By August of course we’ll all be hoping for some Snow). Much of June 2015 so far has been rather cool in terms of temperatures (or even close to average). We’ve had a few failed plumes, and sadly the rest of June is likely to remain cool & showery! (As seen by the GFS weather model below, – a cool & Unsettled NW wind is likely to dominate for the rest of July, Sorry ! :) However, things are becoming fairly interesting for the rest of Summer, read on below, also enjoy the Autumn 2015 Sneek Peak…
Now, After a Rather “Rubbish” (I Could use Worse Words ;), June, does Kasim think that July 2015/+ August Could hold The Goods for the UK Forecast?
July: Various weather models have released their UK forecast for July 2015, and we have a fairly mixed view from the models. Looking at analogue years in which El Nino / Solar Activity is at the same region/ extent as 2015, and I can say that July will certainly be “Less rubbish” than June, which means that the Azores high is likely to be much stronger across Southern and Central areas, pushing the first few bursts of warm weather in :). Now, the CFS (Climate Forecasting System), is showing near average to slightly below average temperatures for July, with a small trough of low pressure across Southern areas producing an unsettled flow of conditions, certainly not a heat wave / hot and stormy month however probably a little* better than June ;)…. Read On.
KasimsWeatherWatcher’s July 2015 ForecastThoughts, Look Away if you Want Hot Weather;
I think you’ll be pleased to hear that a washout July is certainly unlikely, however we may be in the wash basin at times, expect a fair deal of wet weather. However, the JMA Japanese model shows a tendency for drier & warmer conditions later, as does the BCC. Therefore, those of you hoping for warmer weather later in July may be fairly pleased by the outcome of this Forecast. This area of low pressure may even at times deliver Southerly winds (generating a fair deal of warmth & Thundery weather), especially later in the month. You’ll need to stay tuned for further updates on this if you’re a Storm – Lover :)
August Predictions & Autumn 2015 “Sneak Peek” ;).
Before we get on with the Autumn 2015 Sneak Peek, and Winter to! I just want to take a quick look at August. Now, having said that July is unlikely to be warmer than average, the ridge driving the average conditions is likely to remain in strength during August, and MJO / Tropical suggestions & sea surface temperature influences suggest the expansion of that ridge during August, and, at the moment I can certainly see August having a good chance of seeing the first warmer than average month of the Summer (and indeed, probably the last ;). Scroll Down for the Autumn 2015 sneak peek, viewing some long range weather models for the Autumn period, of course, I shall keep you up to date with further Updates.
Autumn 2015 “Sneak Peek” ;)
El Nino; El Nino will be a significant ”Puller” and “Pusher” of the various Oceans & tropical patterns (such as the MJO), during this Autumn. We will also see a slight decline in solar activity & a quiet hurricane season in the mid Atlantic & States. Looking back at analogue years, it seems apparent that the same weather patterns that dominated through Summer may indeed continue through Autumn, this would mean a very wet & at times Stormy Autumn pattern. The CFS at this current time is agreeing with me. Cool & Stormy Autumn? Perhaps ;). Thank you for reading my July 2015 Weather Outlook & further long range speculation, do check out Weather for the Holiday Season if you’re heading Abroad this Month by Clicking Here.