Good Evening Everyone, And Welcome to my Second to Final UK Autumn 2014, Weather Outlook :)
In This Update, I’ll be Providing a Map for the UK as to How I think the Temperature, and Precipitation will Pan Out during Autumn 2014 as a Whole. Before so we Must look at the Detailed Parameters which go into an Autumn Forecast, these include the Analogue Forecasts, Solar Activity, the Seasonal Models and perhaps a Look at at the Sea Surface. Temps As Well. So Grab a Cuppa & Enjoy the Read as it is fairly Long & Detailed! If you’d Like to Skip all the Detailed Analysis, here is a Quick Summary :) ;
September: Spells of Warm & Near Average Temperature, Always (Wetter and Cooler) for the North West And (Drier and Warmer) for the SE. October: Generally the Best Month During Autumn With (Warmer and Slightly Drier) Weather for the South East and (Near Average Temperatures and Slightly Wetter) Weather for the North West.
UKMO + CFS For Autumn 2014 :) ;-
Slightly Different to the Last Autumn Outlook, in this one I will be starting off with the Seasonal models, before moving onto the Analogue forecasts and other parameters etc. I like to start with the models as I find them the least reliable, so I like to separate them from the conclusion. We’ve got 5 Seasonal Models to get through Today #Phewww. Starting off with the UKMO, then the CFS, Beijing, JMA, Jamstech, and finally the Russian model. So, Let’s have a Look at the Met Office Prediction for September/October/November. The UKMO is Going for a Classic “NW/SE Split”, with Blocking High Pressure to the North East, this is quite a Wet Scenario for Western and South Western parts of the UK. Although further East, it would be Warmer and Drier. My Interpretation of this One is that the Extensive Low to the West is Indicitive of an Unsettled November, with the Raised pressure over and to the East of the UK Indicitive of Higher Pressure & Better Weather for September & October Especially October as the Analogue Forecasts Concur. Although It is Very Uncertain to try and Tell what is Happening here as This is a “Blend” of the 3 Months. But on the Whole, a W/E Split :)
CFS; The “Uncertain” Model, Along with UKMO ;)
Now time for a Look at the CFS, for Autumn. Firstly let’s Break it up into Monthly Sections (September, October, November), before looking at it’s chart for the Entire of Autumn. Again, I do not rate the CFS V2 highly at all, so this is really just for Fun. 700mb is the area of the Atmosphere at which areas of Low and High Pressure drive surface Pressure and Weather. As you can see the CFS is going for a Near Normal September. This would not surprise me given the Analogue Data. The best of the Weather would be across Eastern areas, always more Unsettled out West :)
October From the CFS; Highly Unsettled.
The CFS is Indeed looking for an Unsettled Set up during October with Low Pressure Dominating at 700mb Equating to Unsettled surface conditions, wind and rain often dominating with Little in the way of Settled Weather. The Analogue forecasts do Hint at October being a Month of Variation; with a Ridge over the East of the UK often Changing position to bring Varied Weather. The CFS is going for a Different Scenario however, much more Unsettled as can be Seen Below :)
This is Giving me a Good old Head Ache. The CFS is Calling for a “Decent” November, High Pressure to the West would Often Block any Unsettled Zonal Weather although Many Central /Eastern areas Would Be Cooler with Perhaps some Sleet over Hills. The Majority of the Unsettled weather would come from Diving Lows via Trough Disruption, with the West seeing Better conditions with Higher Pressure. I Must Stress the CFS V2 (Along with all Long Range Forecasting Methods), is Highly Uncertain and Can not be Trusted this Far Out :)
Beijing Climate Model; Very Unsettled Autumn 2014 :)
The BCC Is going for a Very Unsettled pattern overall for Autumn, this is a Blend for the Entire Autumn so the Pattern will vary Greatly, although the pattern of Low Pressure to the NW & high Pressure to the East is a Wet, Cool and very “Autumnal” Pattern ;)
Now for the JMA. The JMA is Calling for a Pleasant Period from Aug-Oct. The model does not Forecast for Sep-Nov at this stage, Although for “Early Autumn”, I suppose you can Say, it’s Calling for Generally Reasonable Conditions with High Pressure fairly extensive across the UK at 500mb, Leading to Reasonable Surface Conditions. I’d say so far with these Seasonal Models, the Emphasis is For a “Reasonable” Autumn Overall. Which part of Autumn is Looking Better at this Stage is Very Uncertain. The JMA Monthly Forecasts Hint at a More Unsettled September, and a Drier October. Perhaps the Hint of an Improving Picture for October, with September seeing Swings of Warm/Cooler Conditions :).
Final Model Analysis; The Jamstech IOD :)
The Jamstech is Going for a Warmer than Average Autumn, with Temperatures at 2 Meters Above Ground Level Well Above the Seasonal Average for Autumn, Of Course Temperatures Would Vary Significantly, Although the General Trend is for Above Average Temperatures :)
Solar Activity: “Moderate” For Autumn :)
Please see Below for Solar Cycle Prediction. Solar Activity is the Trickiest Parameter to Work With. The Data at Hand to me is only “Trends” of Activity through time, Solar Activity over Months. Single Flares of Activity which can be Crucial in Forecasting Medium Range in Particular are Uncertain as to when they will Happen. Moderate Solar Activity is Predicted through Autumn, which Gives Confidence towards a Positive NAO. Although the Volume of Months with a Negative NAO and Moderate Activity is High, so therefore this is an Uncertain Element. It is worth pointing out that the Solar Terrestrial Activity is the Volume of Flare which Reaches the UK, the Amount of Extra-Terrestrial Flare Converting into Terrestrial Flare. This is an Important Factor as it Determines the Effect of Solar Activity on Our Weather. Although Moderate Activity On the Whole is Perhaps(?), A Pointer Towards a Milder than Average Autumn :)
Finally is the Sea Surface Temperature & Analogue & Summary for Autumn 2014 :)
The El Nino has Began to Intensify as You can see from the Chart Below, especially across Regions 1+2. The Tripole is Beginning to Form which Favors Northern Blocking, the General Pattern of High Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies over the UK favors High Pressure Patterns but Also Deep Low Pressure Systems when They do Develop. Waters across the Mexico Region are also Beginning to Warm. Now with all this Warm Water, What Does it Mean? :) It’s Very Uncertain about it’s Effects on Our Weather, although these Signals are Conflicting. The El Nino may be a Sign of a More Active Jet Stream off the Eastern Seaboard of the US, Providing Unsettled Weather across the UK, although the Warm Waters of the UK may Increase the Blocking Here, Leading to a Mild, Zonal Pattern with A Good deal of Rainfall. These SST’s May Provide Evidence of a Pattern of a “NW/SE Split”, with the Coolest Weather for the far West, Unsettled Here to, Always Better for the East of the Country with High Pressure Dominant Here :) Finally, Last but Not Least, here is where the ENSO Analogue Forecast’s Take us, Going of Years with Similar ENSO Forecasts, Weak To Moderate (Modoki), + Weak El Nino Region 1+2. For the Autumn Period. As you can see, November being the Most Unsettled Month, with October the Best. This Leaves me with a Conclusion of a Generally Warmer and Wetter than Average Autumn for the West. Perhaps More Near Normal Temperature and Precipitation for Eastern areas. September: Spells of Warm & Near Average Temperature, Always (Wetter and Cooler) for the North West And (Drier and Warmer) for the SE. October: Generally the Best Month During Autumn With (Warmer and Slightly Drier) Weather for the South East and (Near Average Temperatures and Slightly Wetter) Weather for the North West. Thank you very Much for Tuning in :)
Welcome to My Third UK Autumn 2014 Weather Forecast, If you would like to View my Previous Autumn Outlook’s, feel free to Scroll down Quite a bit to Find those. Now, In today’s Forecast we’re going to be analyzing the Sea Surface Temperatures (ENSO), the Seasonal Models, and the Solar Activity for this Year. Now, forecasting long range is more for “Fun”, than anything else, you can try and get it correct with the Information Given, although due to the Uncertainty and relatively low – Understanding of Long Range weather, most of the time confidence is Low. Okay, so Enough of me Chatting on now let’s Get into the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) :)
Analogue Years & ENSO :).
The ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation), Is an Oscillation of Cold(La Nina), and Warm (El Nino), Waters East of Peru stretching up into the Pacific. Now, Analogue Years of this Year (Weak El Nino + Almost a Modoki (Central Pacific) El Nino), Include 09/10, 76/77, 77/78 and 2002/03. Highly experimentally, I have viewed these Analogue years (Credit; wetterzentrale.de) based on the ENSO, and have interpreted the Reanalysis data for each Months (using 1 chart per week of the month), and then trying to interpret the overall monthly pattern, and then trying to interpret the overall pressure pattern for each month into 1 Chart, Phew!!, So here’s what I’ve come up with (First is Sep, below is October etc), Click Here to see how I Produced these :).
Now as you can probably Imagine, due to the Vast Levels of Human Error which may Occur during the Analysis, these charts are Highly Experimental, although my Thoughts based on the ENSO analouges is a Mild or Warm September away from the NW, where it could be Unsettled. We could at times see Incursions of Unsettled weather from the East. October again a slightly milder than average month, the best conditions for the South and East. And November, cool in the West and mild in the SE, generally an Average month overall although maybe swinging either side of Average. Of Course, these are highly experimental and please refer to the Link above to Self-Verify my Analysis. Now, a Forecast would not be Complete with only 1 Idea so let’s look at the Seasonal Models then, Now this is by far a Mild One ;)
Seasonal Models; Mild And Damp for the West; Very Mild & Less Damp in East :).
Firstly let’s take a Look at at the UKMO Chart for Autumn, it’s going for a Milder than Average Autumn overall, again, the Coolest and Wettest* conditions always across Western areas, drier and Milder always for the East, Quite A Pleasant Autumn away from the Very Far West, although even Here Pleasant at times :)
The CFS, is Realllly Similar to the UKMO, an Area of High Pressure across the East of the UK would Deliver cooler conditions for the West (although still, fairly mild or above average), and Warmer conditions for Western areas, another Pleasant signal :).
The Jamstech IOD is also Going for some Quite Lovely Weather, Warm Conditions for many (Central and Eastern) Areas, always more Unsettled for the East, now most of the Long Range Seasonal Models are Going for a Milder than Average Season and the fact that the Analogues are going for a “Very Slightly” Milder than average Season, as well as a General El Nino Trend Average-Above Average, the Confidence is fairly High of a Near Normal or Above Average Temperature Autumn, or a Wet Autumn for the West, more Dry across Eastern areas, so far this is the Idea Anyway ;).
Now, the Russian, the Russian is going for a Mild Autumn, Temperatures on the Whole above Average (Although this Is for early Autumn) :).
Solar Activity & Summary; A Quick Look at Solar Activity Now, it’s Tracing quite Moderate during this year and Autumn 2014. Now, you can produce High Pressure conditions during High Solar activity, although moderate Solar activity generally means it’s very difficult for extreme blocking (2010 style) to develop, so I guess we can rule that out for Autumn 2014 (Very Famous last words). The general idea at the moment is for high confidence (85%), of a Mild or Average tempeature Autumn, and around 60% confidence that the East will be drier than the West. High pressure will be a dominant feature, it is near Impossible to predict what the High Pressure will do during Autumn though so thank you for Reading & Have A Great Week :D
Good afternoon/evening Guys (Previous Update) :) Thanks for tuning into my second Autumn 2014 UK Weather outlook, In this blog we’ll have a quick look at the latest & updated Seasonal models and try to come up with a conclusion on how the weather may shape up through Autumn in the UK. Now 2 weeks ago I issued my first Autumn UK blog and for your reference/enjoyment that can be found below :).
There are many factors we look at to produce the Autumn 2014 UK Weather forecast, these include the seasonal models (CFS,JMA,BCC,UKMO), Analogue years and also Sea Surface Temperatures. Forecasting more than a few day’s ahead is a challenge to do so correctly – so I hope you understand the uncertainties which we are dealing with in this long range speculation. First then let’s take a look at the very uncertain & notorious CFS Version 2 700mb anomaly for September, October and November :).
CFS; Typical pattern;
As you can see from the chart below, the CFS V2 hasn’t changed too much from the previous update and it is going for quite a SE/NW split, a typical Autumn in the UK with low pressures passing over the North of the UK, with the lovely weather (dry and bright), always closer to the South of the UK :).
Monthly CFS Forecasts (Sep/Oct/Nov) :)
Now let’s quickly break the CFS Forecasts down into Monthly periods. For September it’s predicting a near average (temperature/precipitation), for this month, with higher pressure over the East of the UK;
For October, again an East/West split, with the best of the weather across the East of the UK, alays more unsettled, windy and potentially very wet due to the battle ground scenario across Western parts :)
Into November, the CFS is saying a slightly drier month, perhaps a good deal drier and settled than October, but it would also be quite crisp and frosty in the Mornings with some more fog in the South/East in particular :)
Solar Activity; as you can see from the chart below Solar Cycle 24 has just finished peaking and we’re into a time of moderate Solar Activity, this means we can still expect a few spikes in the flares during the remainder of 2014. This may translate to a higher chance of a positive NAO (mild, windy, wet), for the UK for this Autumn, although the affects of unpredictable spikes are very uncertain so this is only around a 3-4% of the overall forecast :) ;
Brazilian; Going for a Very Spelinded Period For Weather Autumn:).
The Brazilian as you can see below is going for a Very Nice, Warm and Settled Autumn over the UK & Ireland with temperatures above average and precipitation below average in the chart you can see below; this would be a warm/sunny Autumn but later towards November become more foggy/frosty type scenario :).
Russian Model – Very Splendid :)
Now the Meteorological Center of Russia is going for, yes a very Splendid Autumn across the UK with a higher chance (0.5-0.9), of a warmer than average season. Interestingly the BCC and Russian are both going for this warmer Autumn, although notice on the Russian, the higher risk of near normal and cooler temperatures lurking quite close to the South West Coast :).
BCC – Warmer In E, Incursions from South and NW at times :) ;
Now the BCC is going for a Warmer than average Autumn across the UK especially across the North East, notice the below average anomaly lurking very close to the South West of the UK, that is very interesting as it ties in closely with the Russian. Now this could actually bring some very warm spells due to the South East wind early on in the Season :).
Jamstech IOD – Not a Great Model but let’s take a look;
The Jamstech IOD, interestingly enough, is calling for a E/W split across the UK, with the warmest temperatures across the North East. That’s very interesting. Why is there so much agreement? It’s difficult to say why, but it might actually be because the models are struggling to work with the El Nino and AMO pattern at present! :).
AMO Thoughts + Impacts on Autumn 2014 :)
Now in the last update my thoughts trended to the cool waters over Mexico leading to a Polar Maritime (cool and unsettled), flow across the UK due to increased ridging across the East of the US. In the last 2 weeks these anomalies have begun to deteriorate, and it is becoming more towards near normal. Although with the cool sea surface temperatures across the North Coast of South America this may lead to a decreased hurricane activity this season, which in turn will produce a Polar Maritime flow over the UK, although it’s too far out to be able to “predict” the SST’s and I think it’s safer to say that the Warm SST’s over the Eastern Seaboard may actually interestingly have a very similar affect to the Cool SST’s over Mexico in increasing a NW (Polar Maritime) flow over the UK. As I say, this is very uncertain thoughts, and is going against most of the Seasonal models at the moment, but I do think Autumn 2014 may see some cool NW Flow’s at times due to this, especially towards October/November :).
Overall Thoughts – West/East Split, NW Incursions Later On :)
The Models are all in agreement, and with a weak El Nino and developing Modoki El Nino, this may lead to high pressure over the UK in increasing Northern Blocking due to the Modoki. The models are currently Centering this over the UK, which would mean a Mild/Dry Season, but it could Change .At the moment it’s looking like, looking at everything, the North East may see the drier/warmer weather, whilst the North West and South West see more unsettled conditions, this Reasonable set up may break down at times to allow a Cooler North Westerly wind to introduce itself especially later in the Season, or at least a break down later in the Season, but at the moment the Season looks warmer/Better in the East than in the West. And for November it may settled down a little bit compared to October and thank you very much for reading :).