Good afternoon folks, Tonight’s Update looks at the Latest UK Weather Forecast for Autumn 2013, for the British Isles. Seasonal Forecasting of this Range is Incredibly Uncertain: More confidence will accompany the Autumn 2013 Forecast during Late August. In Today’s Latest Autumn 2013 Update, we’re going to Review the Latest Seasonal Output for Autumn 2013, a look at the CFS, & Met Office Output for Autumn 2013, and forming a Conclusion as to where things may go for Autumn from the Data at hand.
CFS Autumn 2013 Latest Forecast: “Westerly”:
The Latest CFS Prediction for Sep/Oct/Nov 3 month Period is for a”Westerly” Flow, much like was Indicated on the September update. This would mean “Near Normal” Temperature & Rainfall for most of the UK. Higher rainfall & cooler Temperatures in the West, with generally Mixed & Unsettled weather. Here’s the CFS 700mb Global Forecast, note the Westerly flow across the UK, and Europe to. A Very uncertain Outlook, although Autumn 2013 may be Fairly Unsettled across the UK, with areas of Low pressure providing Windy & wet weather. As for Temperature; Highly Uncertain, a cooler than Average Autumn would be Likely across the NW with the CFS Output, however a “Westerly Flow” would mean that Temperature may go Either way. Here’s the CFS Chart for Sep/Oct/Nov:
Met Office Autumn 2013 Latest Weather Forecast:
The Latest UKMO (UK Met Office) Seasonal Ensemble Forecast for Autumn 2013 paints an entirely different Picture. Northern Blocking Dominant for the Autumn, with Low Pressure to the East of the UK. A Negative NAO would be Dominant during the Autumn, much cooler conditions with an Easterly flow. Even with a Negative NAO for a Season, warmer periods are possible however the Overall pattern of a Negative NAO would be dominant. A highly Uncertain Outlook, and the Disagreement within the Models adds to the Uncertainty in the Forecast. Here’s the UKMO 500mb Chart for Sep/Oct/Nov, notice the Negative NAO Set Up for Autumn. A Highly Uncertain Outlook;
UK Autumn 2013 Latest Prediction “Conclusion”:
Very Interesting output from the Latest seasonal Forecast models to say the Least. The next UK Autumn 2013 Outlook will be on the 2nd of September 2013. As always, all Longer Range forecasts can be Found on the Monthly & Seasonal Section of the Website. To Summarize, a Very Uncertain outlook for Autumn. The CFS calls for a Westerly flow (Near Normal), with the UK Met Office hinting at much Cooler conditions for Autumn. Autumn 2013 Forecast is Very Uncertain, more Information will be Issued later in August. Current thinking runs along the Lines (Very Experimenal), of a Westerly flow dominant for Autumn 2013, however Incursions of cooler, perhaps even Colder weather possible, especially with the UKMO Output & General Winter 2014 output runs along Negative NAO Lines. Although the Forecast tendencies are Very Uncertain, Stay Tuned.