Solar Activity Update & The Modern Winter “Low Cold, NAO” Connection; Little Ice Age Emerging?

A “warm ;)” welcome to my latest blog, and probably my most interesting ever, @ kasimsweatherwatcher. In this blog update, we will discuss the “great” solar energy minimum forecast during 2017-2022, and how this may relate to a decline in temperatures for winters across West Europe, and indeed the United Kingdom during the coming years. 

During the 20th century, record threatening winters of 1962/62 & 1947 were exceptionally severe, however were “singular” events of extremely cold weather. They were on their own, never being joined by a winter just as cold, during a time of moderate solar activity. During the early 18th Century, an incredible fate was undergone by the sun as seen below from predictions from , barely any sunspots were recorded, and this is when the Thames froze over nearly every winter…

Solar Activity predictions boast interesting; with solar disk numbers of sunspots reducing to levels experienced during the Dalton minimum.The “great” minimum of 2017-2022, may bring further interesting winter weather conditions.

The theory is that low solar activity, impedes the normal Westerly airflow which would bring mild, stormy weather to the United Kingdom during Winter months. Solar activity peaked during 2011-2014, in which winters were average to mild (bar the “anomaly”, which is typical for the UK), and usually hosting extreme storms.

During recent Winters in the UK, relatively high solar activity statistics has allowed stormy conditions to percolate.

The Theory Is That low solar activity, affects the magnetosphere of the Earth at extreme altitudes, which has in turn affects on the stratosphere, and has the affect of “not supplying the energy” (perhaps momentum) would be a better word, to the normal mild Westerly air flows. Thus, Easterly winds are allowed to manifest, the Westerlies are allowed to reverse, and in the “right” conditions, an Easterly loop of weather is set up from Siberia to the UK. This incredible chart during November 2010, formed just after a period of non-existent or very low solar energy being inputted into the stratosphere;

A negative NAO, and "cold with a sting on the tail", winter during 2010, was perhaps caused by the recent solar minimum of 24.

Incredibly Snow Laden Negative NAO Pattern during December 2010, following a year of low Solar Activity.

Solar Activity is forecast to decline to near 1800's values, the early 1800's saw a rash of severe winters in the UK.

Solar Activity is forecast to decline to near 1800′s values, the early 1800′s saw a rash of severe winters in the UK.

Now, what you might find even more interesting, is that the Maunder minimum, the period of extremely low or “non existent” solar Activity during the late 1600′s, saw the Thames river in London freeze over several times. During the early 1800′s, this happened twice. Frost was almost 2-3 feet deep, and snow of over a foot deep fell across many parts of the UK, paralyzing Britain. I have analysed the data, and it remains to be seen where a cold spell of winters occurs during a period of high solar activity. Recent solar activity patterns, especially during SC 24, have increasingly resemblances to those in the early 1700′s, almost as if the sun is “re living” it’s past events. However, whether the weather will re live it’s severe experiences during the early 1700′s again this century, is very uncertain;

Solar Cycle 25 boasts impressive similarities to the late 1700's cycle; which saw incredible Northern Blocking dominate.Low solar activity, is rare, but when it hits, it will hit.

 Solar Cycle 25′s minimum will be even lower than Solar Cycle 24 (2009/10), giving the potential for severe winters to occur. In Layman’s terms, low solar activity reduces the power usually provided by the Sun, to force mild Atlantic Westerlies across the UK. Instead – Easterly winds are then allowed to extend from Siberia Westwards, providing colder than average winter conditions for much of Europe. The graphic below, shows in essence how low solar activity is thought to affect winter conditions in Europe and the UK.

With this period of extensively low solar activity due from 2017, the tides may well be open for something to occur which may just have the potential to shock. Something which has not been witnessed since the 19th Century. This isn’t a little ice age, however it may be a hint of what is to come later on in the Century. Please stay tuned for further updates here at KasimsWeatherWatcher. 

WellSeeKasimsweatherwatcher’s Winter 2015-16 El Nino/ UK NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) Blog, has been released, if you would like to view it, please scroll your cursor and click the upcoming Winter. Thank you…..

Disclaimer: there are many signals that formulate a UK winter, not just solar activity or ENSO. Because the UK lies on the border of many air masses, even if the signal is looking good, it can often be swept away due to something unpredictable. Therefore, please don’t take predictions too seriously, this blog is simply hinting at the potential of winters in later years due to the excitingly cold correlating solar/winter patterns. Thank you once again for reading.

One Response so far.

  1. Chris W says:

    An extremely interesting and well research post from you Kasim. Europe and the British Isles indeed had many extremely cold winters like the great frosts of 1683/4 and 1709 at the time of very low solar activity during the little ice age.

    However what should not be overlooked was during that period the seasons were extremely variable and the weather went from one extreme to the other. There were also some extremely mild winters after a very cold winter the previous year. There was even one very mild and stormy winter between 1684 and 1709, more so than 2013/14 even.

    There were still extreme heatwaves during the little ice age. The summer of 1666 had a 3 month heat wave with very little rain. The heatwave lasted so long that the oranges growing in Samuel Pepys garden actually ripened. By September it was so dry, it only took a small accident in a bakery to cause a huge disaster in the destruction of London.

Leave a Reply to Chris W Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

You may use these HTML tags and attributes: <a href="" title=""> <abbr title=""> <acronym title=""> <b> <blockquote cite=""> <cite> <code> <del datetime=""> <em> <i> <q cite=""> <strike> <strong>