Good evening everyone. The clocks are back, and so is the Winter feel. It’s only 5 weeks until many parts of the UK could see snow at any time. We are now starting to decline Solar Activity at reasonable rates – in a couple of years Severe Winters are very likely. However for now, Solar Activity remains at levels where analogue years have produced mild, cold and average Winters; labeling the uncertainty we face for Winter 2015/2016. If you would like to visit the full Winter 2015/16 Weather Forecast for the UK, Click Here, thank you.
Now, Snow Cover is expanding at a very good rate so far this year. As learnt last year – you simply can’t rely purely on snow cover. The theory suggests that an early & fast increase of both Siberian (and especially Scandinavian snow cover), increase the chance of seeing Northern Blocking around these regions, which does help push that Bitterly cold air West towards the UK. Snow Cover has increased fairly quickly this Autumn, meaning we’re off to a pretty good start. But, there are many of other factors. The media often go off on one suggesting severe snow is likely, however you just can’t say that so far out. We have learnt from 2010 that very low or minimal solar activity is a big player in producing a negative NAO, this is a reflection of the blocked, snowy North Atlantic.
So, the Snow cover plains are looking pretty good across Northern Latitudes. But, is the North Atlantic about to align itself into a position favorable for some pretty extreme Winter conditions? Like some articles suggest? ;). The Answer is that is certainly looks pretty favorable, however how this pattern is likely to shape up over the coming months is quite uncertain. Other years with a “Modoki” El Nino, Include 2009/10 ;), 2002/3, 1997/8 and a few other years. At the moment the El Nino is about as strong as you can get it. This is an indicator for a Strong Jet Stream, driving in wet & windy conditions. However, the part of the Atlantic that would usually cover the Jet Stream, has had it’s power taken out of it, because of the cold blob. Which means this Winter could get fairly interesting, if the cold blob persists. It’s a case of waiting & watching for now, but the risk is certainly there!
Solar Cycles follow an 11 and 60 year cycle, roughly, and Solar Cycle 25 is forecast to be half of 24′s values, some predictions overestimate the drop off. However, it will still certainly be a very significant winters event for the UK :D. The last time this occurred was in the 50′s, could it be that the cold wasn’t unleashed until a few years after? Bringing the 62/63 Severe cold spell :). Read on for more information on WINTER 2015-2016′s Prediction: