UK Weather Outlook; Long Range November 2014 Forecast Update. More Unsettled, But Colder? :)

Kasim Awan - Owner of KasimsWeatherWatcher.

Kasim Of KasimsWeatherWatcher.

Return to this Page for the Next November Update: 23rd November.Good evening everyone, and welcome to my latest UK Weather outlook at KasimsWeatherWatcher. Tonight’s update takes outlook takes a detailed look at November 2014 UK Weather, hopefully we will see something a little “cooler” for this Time. So, are we going to see the Jet Stream taking center stage, or a rather cold and blocked scenario. Snow and cold lovers – be prepared to experience disappointment by the end of this update ;) My update Tonight takes a run though the Seasonal models, and the MJO, before coming to a conclusion about how November 2014 may shape up. Of course, long range forecasting is extremely difficult to get right, the models have a moderate rate of verification, so please treat this forecast with a pinch of salt. Although, it is good to get an idea of where we are heading, Enjoy :)

CFS For November: An Uncertain/Slow Slide off in temperature.

Not a bad Chart for Snow/Cold Lovers, most of the CFS members are pointing towards a slow slide off in temperatures towards mid/late November, with temperatures falling to slightly below average values. This would lead into an increased risk of frost; and wintry showers across Northern areas. The CFS is latching onto this idea of a southerly jet stream, bringing a somewhat polar maritime flow into the British Isles. I would treat the CFS with high amounts of uncertainty, as it is very unreliable at this range. :)

November 2014 Coupled Forecasting System used by the NOAA is predicting a cool off in temperatures with the risk of snow for northern high ground,.Although the CFS is very unreliable, this does not mean that the other forecast models are not, so it is important to remember that there are vast amounts of Uncertainty as we head out to November. Indeed, it looks like it will be a much more unsettled month on the whole, but Colder: now that’s the question. Next is the “JMA”, the JMA chart below runs from the 2nd of November out to the 15th. A West-North-Westerly flow would be bringing slightly cooler than average temperatures from time to time, although on the whole a fairly benign month with weather systems pushing East from the Atlantic to bring at times wet and windy weather.

The JMA UK Prediction is seeing little in the way of  snow for the UK for November. It is seeing a carry on of 2014 warm conditions!Siberian Snow Cover: As I mentioned earlier, snow cover across the Siberian plane and Scandinavia is doing very well. This may lead to an increase in blocking, or most certainly will do around the November time across Scandinava. With temperatures forecast only to get cooler in Norway and Sweden as Northerly winds dig in; more snow cover is expected.  Now, when you put this together with the general forecast of a Westerly based November with a polar maritime flow, it’s not great news for cold/Snow lovers. The jet stream is likely to become blocked or blocked somewhat over the British Isles. Instead of letting the low pressure dive South East to bring us cold winds, it is likely to stall over the country, bringing quite a prolonged spell of Westerly winds.  What can I gather from this? Well, we are likely to see an abundance of weather systems moving East from the Atlantic, combined with the idea that any risk of cooler conditions is likely towards the latter part of the Month. What would this mean “weather wise?”, well, probably temperatures swinging between slightly above and slightly below average, with rainfall slightly above average, and sunshine close to or below average. Tune in, in around 2 week time to get my final November 2014 UKWeather Forecast,  thins are set to change as they always do in long range forecasts, I hope you enjoyed the read :)


One Response so far.

  1. inversion says:

    Hi Kasim.
    Do you think the OPI will have any effect on this winters outcome? It’s been on a minus trend so far this month and seems to be continuing…
    - 2.86 this morning.

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