UK Early September + October Weather Outlook :)

GWeatherAware28thood Evening Everyone, and Welcome to this “Quick” UK Weather Outlook Looking at Early September and October 2014, and Also Some Interesting Winter Speculation News To :).

In Today’s Update We’re Going to View the BCC, JMA, GFS ENS & MJO to Try & Get a Picture of how Early September may Shape Up. Currently, it’s (Brrrr) Cool across many areas, Indeed Ben Nevis (1,300 Meters ASL), has Had a Dusting of Snow Today (Which Isn’t at all Unusual for Mid-Late August), Later into the Weekend that Snow line may Drop another 100 Meters to 1.2K Meters. Something for the Intense Hikers of the Monroe’s to Keep an Eye out For:). It looks Like Temperatures Next Week are Set to Stay Slightly Below the Seasonal Average with Saturday & Sunday Morning being One’s to Watch out for for a Rural Ground Frost. So Temperatures Will be Remaining on the Chilly Regime, with Somme Showers & a Frost Risk through the Weekend, although This Final Week of August Is the One I’ve been Paying Attention To, So Let’s See if the Weather Models Are Beginning To Trend :)

This Idea of a Build in Pressure towards the Final Few Day’s is Really Still there on the CFS, & The JMA, and The BCC, Although the Weather Models which we Usually Look for to See an Agreement are Trending more Unsettled as we Head into this 26th-31st Of August Period As You can See Below:). A Phase 1 Of The MJO Into Early September Is Indicative Of Higher Pressure to the South East, so We’re Likely to keep the Best of the #UKSun and #UKWarmth to the Soutth East into Early September Whilst the North West see an Unforgiving Trough bringing Unsettled Conditions as Hinted in in the ECM/GEM by the Beginning of September :)

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Now for the October 2014 UK Weather Outlook :)

Tonight’s October Weather Outlook will have a Quick look at the Latest JMA & CFS Weather Models for October which have Been Recently Updated, The General Consensus was for a Rather Pleasant October away from the Far North although Recently the Models have Trended more Unsettled as Seen in Previous Updates, so it will be rather Interesting to See if Tonight’s Model’s Say Otherwise or Agree with this more Unsettled Trend in Conditions :)

The JMA Is Trending Towards this More Unsettled Outlook for October, with the Jet Stream running through Northern Areas of the UK Southern areas would be a Little more Sheltered. A Quick Look at the JMA’s Prediction for November Show’s a More Settled Scenario for November although with Low Pressure Pushing up against a Ridge to the East this would be a Fairly Wet Scenario for Western Areas Perhaps :)

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CFS Forecast For October 2014 “Much more Settled” :)

The CFS is Certainly Causing some Conflicting Signals here, it is Going for a Mainly Dry & At times Warm (Although Mostly Near Normal Temperature) October, with a Ridge across Northern Areas. The ENSO Analogue Charts Do Show a More Unsettled North West, Perhaps The CFS Is Slightly Struggling with the Position of the Ridge on the Analogue Charts for October, and Wanting a Much More Dominant Feature, which would Bring Pleasant Conditions. At the Moment I am Thinking October will be Best for the SE, with more Unsettled Conditions in the North although especially Early On Northern Areas will see their Fair Share of Bette Weather, Subject To Change Though :)

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Winter “Speculation News” ;).

The Models, Often Struggle with Forecasts this* far Out, and are an Unreliable Source. Indeed the ENSO Analogue Charts  are Hinting at a Slightly Cooler than Average Winter, although the Idea of Winter Forecasting this Far Out  is Incredibly Uncertain and a New Area in Terms of Science /Forecasting, although these Charts Below which are More Analogue Charts from the Excellent Website NOAA Show that Analogue El Nino Years in the Past 20 Year’s show Cooler than Average Start to the Winter for the UK, Although Analogue Charts are Not Very Reliable and the El Nino may Not Surface this Winter, so I’m going to Restrict from Forecasting Anything At All for Winter until we Get Closer to the Date, as the Hundreds (And literally, it is Hundreds), of Winter Factors are a Little more Certain towards that Time :)

With Mild Winters Coming In Clusters (Indeed, the Cold Run of 08-9 to 12-13 has Proven Interesting), 2013-14 and 2014-15 May Both be Of Mild Temperatures from that Perspective, and from the ENSO Perspective, it’s Showing Slightly Cooler than Average. In Forecasting, 14-21 Day’s Out, we Usually Say If there’s so Many Varying Perspectives, they All have Interesting and Very Valid Perspectives, But it is So Hard to Make a Conclusion from them All, we Wait until Closer to the Time for a Better Agreement, I think that’s what I’ll do in this Case ;)

Now If  you Haven’t Seen my “Official” Winter Speculation Blog you can Catch That by Here, Thank You for Reading :)

CFSECM1

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