Hello folks, you’ve been enjoying my weather updates for quite a while now. With over 5.7 million views across KasimsWeatherWatcher and VeryWeather, I am very pleased to have run such a successful blog & weather outlook website.
Since I was a very small child I have been obsessed, to a degree, about the weather. About how storms have the power to change lives, and watching snow fall on a cold February afternoon.
The Winter of 2010 was a huge player in my fascination with the weather. Living in Buxton, the highest market town in England, severe weather in terms of snow, cold & blizzards isn’t rare; as with altitude comes colder temperatures are more extreme snow amounts. The difference between the deep, unforgiving snow and blizzards that the highlands of the Peak Districts encountered, to a sleety wet mix; across lower elevations of Cheshire, also played a huge part in fascinating me about the weather, showing it’s delicacy and local variation.
I am also a long range forecaster, predicting weather mainly for the winter seasons for both the United Kingdom and United States, seeing many hundreds of thousands, even millions of views during the Autumn & Winter season as many people are attracted to the sites to find out if snow is on it’s way. Unpredictability, as I’m sure you know;), is a wide player when it comes to snow and cold weather. The United Kingdom is so exposed to the effects of the gulf stream and mild Atlantic weather, the “default” set up, when something different is lurking, the models often struggle with how it will play out and how much snow will fall, and rightly so. However I am pleased with my efforts for the previous 2 winters, and I am now extending similar skills to keep many people up to date with thunderstorms and heat. Often many hundreds of thousands of people join me each season for the exciting updates.
I am also a keen sun lover. And I’m not just talking about getting a tan; the sun is (obviously), a driver of the weather, and not just with it’s strength. There is now an increasing trend in the scientific climate community, almost an explosion of interest recently, in how the natural solar cycles of varying sun spot activity affect the magnetosphere of the earth, and in turn the stratosphere. As the sun & earth relationship is one of the most subtle, yet revealing relationships, which I believe there is so much more left to learn. One thing many have come to agree on, is the relationship between low solar activity, the solar minimum and how this affects the strong Westerly winds, often neglecting them of their strength, through a phenomenon quite common during UK Winter’s, known as Sudden Stratospheric Warming. This is when the 10 hpa area of the atmosphere at high heights warms up to a certain degree, and can lead to ridge forming in the troposphere, and the affect “downwells” to a lower altitude. As a result, ridges can form in the right places, and can be quite stubborn. This has the effect of blocking the Westerly Atlantic flows and introducing colder conditions towards the UK.
Because the Ocean & Atmosphere system surrounding the British Isles is incredibly complicated; not many have fully understood the drivers enough and how they link together to produce an accurate long range forecast. Even if they did, the possibilities of how the atmosphere will re arrange it self for the coming period is endless. The Chaos theory describes this quite well, although the first kilometer of the earth’s atmosphere is the most diverse and turbulent, higher up it is still very turbulent, and predicting how all these parcels of air will interact with each-other and re arrange themselves in the coming weeks is incredibly uncertain. Short range weather models such as the Global Forecasting System (NOAA), the ECMWF (Euro), the UKMO (UK), are very popular, however only predict the initial ”push”, the initial “Hit”, which for human understanding is as easy to predict as how something will bounce off a wall Ha, is often quite accurate by these models. They have predicted various Winter Storm’s with a high level of accuracy.
Short range models aren’t the only models out there. Medium range, and now long range, is becoming more and more established in the network, as you’d imagine, these models do struggle in their accuracy. As explained, this is because of; the Chaos theory (it’s too complex and has too many factors), the infancy of long range, and that fact that we just still can’t understand how the river of meteorology will flow “that far out”, (say a few weeks). What we can do, is try;), to experiment with these models and monitor their progress. Here at KasimsWeatherWatcher.com, I try to release my own hand made forecasts through a method known as “long range variability & tracking patterns & matching years”. As simple as it seems, it has quite a good success rate for the few times I have used it, around 65-70%, it was used during Autumn 2014 and Winter 2014-15 quite successfully.
How does it work? The method involves the belief that you can’t just use a “signal” as how it is at one point in time. What’s more important is how the signal changes during the season of the starting point for the forecast, how much it changes and to what rate. Similar years in the past are then noted, thanks to data from excellent websites, and I monitor what occurred in the coming season I’m forecasting for. I go off various pointers, such as the El Nino, Solar Activity (the bigys), but also view other telleconnections (Ocean Atmospheric Relationship Cycles) like the IOD, AMO, PDO, MJO, QBO, and the list goes on. I use how these cycles changed, I like to call it their “way” through the current season, making matches and then viewing conditions for the season I’m forecasting for, as explained earlier. If there is a trend, good, there is some basis for a forecast. If there is not a trend, I will carry on looking, sometimes you have to look very hard.
As the science of long range weather is very early, you can not expect me or others to get it right every time. However I am very confident that things will improve in the coming years. My followers are quite good at understanding this on my KasimsWeatherWatcher pages, however on my larger Snow updates & thunder updates pages, an inaccurate long range forecast can lead to a (rightly so), saw thumb of followers! That’s why it’s important to keep a clean slate regard to that.
Everyone loves a bit of snow, and unsurprisingly my snow videos & winter information has brought the attention of Channel 4, ITV Weather, BBC, Daily Mail, and I have been featured on Channel 4 during a snow documentary, have forecasted in the ITV Granada studios & have been featured on the Manchester Evening News with an article about my weather. What a boast!; I am extremely flattered by the media interest, and I hope my hard work leads to more opportunities during the coming winter seasons :)
Beautiful Winter pictures are posted from September, from a Winter Wonderland Lane, to Fresh Overnight Snow when Opening Curtains, this is a tool I use to attract people in to join my weather updates in the Autumn as well as the prospect of snow in October, although I’d like to this of this as a Business Model, it is more of a method of luring the snow – lovers and giving them a treat.
For further information, I will have a monthly update on this page with further writings @ KasimsWeatherWatcher.Com. (09.06.15)