Winter may be about to take itself to a whole new level – with the decline in solar activity likely to challenge that of the 1700′s, when people saw snow every day from November to March in most of the UK :D However, – There is a COMMON misconception about a little ice age – and that is that it means colder weather. A little ice age is a huge “sharp” but short lasting change in the atmospheric set up Globally, and is brought on by very low solar activity for sustained periods of time. The graph below shows the extreme drop in solar activity, which brought lovely -30C Winter’s across the UK, and Ice Skating events on the Thames, with delightful heavy snowfall across Britain being common during Winter. This was due to the sun hibernating for a long period of time, but cold weather wasn’t the only occurrence… (Little ice ages are very common and are more about weather changes than mass Ice expansion).
As we head into the mid 21st Century, a new modern era is likely. This era is likely to be joined by very cold conditions for some areas. The earth has various atmospheric rivers & patterns that worth in both an upwelling & downwelling fashion. Each part of the globe will be affected differently. For the UK, an increased occurrence of cold winters, and wet, flooding summers are likely. This is because Northern Blocking is much more likely during low solar activity – this works to stall rain bands across the UK & promote Easterly flows during Winter. Cooler & Wetter then. But, this could also lead to some severe heatwaves being more common, bringing thunderstorms & heavy rain during the Summer season. The exact implications are quite uncertain, it is not a confident area in terms of science, and the exciting thing is, ANYTHING could happen. Solar cycles occur in 11 year spells. We are currently right on the edge of cycle 24, about to fall into 25′s dip, and it’s likely to be a large dip. This means that during 2017-2022, some pretty large winters are likely, get ready, get your snow shovel, winter boots etc.
Now, let’s get into some depth. Snow is an amazing product and sign of a cold & instable atmosphere. And that is what the state of the atmosphere is during a LIA (little ice age), cold, and unstable. This means any future winters from around 2020 are likely to have DOUBLE the amount of snow as those in the current & past decades. Since we are heading into Little Ice Age “type” conditions, not an official little ice age. That will probably be achieved by 2060. However, during 2030 we could also see a pretty severe winter event. Talking more closer to home – Winter 2015/16 is likely to be near normal; due to El Nino/ Solar Activity creating a “favorable mix”, so not bad if you’re looking for snow (UK + Europe). Further afield, US is likely to be in the freezer yet again this Winter, especially the East United States. Now, Winter’s 2016-17, 2017-18+ are likely to follow a “downward spiral”, becoming MORE & MORE cold, MORE & MORE snowy, but there will be mild phases (this can be expected). Even during the middle of the Little Ice Age, there were some mild phases. But a “Complete Easterly Loop” is likely in the Jet Stream, so instead of bringing westerly winds & mild conditions, cold arctic air is drawn out of Siberia. The pattern below is from November 2010, when an Easterly Jet Loop locked the UK in a polar freeze lasting 2 weeks, and the coldest Christmas since living memory. Exciting to know that more of this is on it’s way. Now, there is LOTs more research to be done on this topic.
To view my early UK Winter 2015-16 Forecast Click Here. Thank you, more updates will follow. It doesn’t take a genius to work out the future cold weather patterns approaching, I indeed think we could see 2010 events becoming rather common. Thank you for reading once again. Long range disclaimer: the atmosphere works in ways which are extremely complex, therefore I would not rely on specific long range techniques, I am trying to improve my accurate year on year. However the airs above the UK are impacted by many air sources, and the way they interact can be quite uncertain – as well as the unpredictability of human influences on the atmosphere around the Jet Stream and little data being released to the public. Thank you :)