Welcome to 2017 at KasimsWeatherWatcher.
UK Winter 2017-2018 Early Preliminary Update (Summary: Signs suggesting a colder than average season for the first time since 2013, although solar activity somewhat suggests an active jet stream, another season of brutal wind storms? See update - Latest winter update here (28.08.17)
NEXT UPDATE: Thursday 7th September 2017.
I can conclude that an easterly QBO (which is interestingly what is ahead for this upcoming winter!), does generally increase the risk of a colder than average season. See the blog post here. (31.08.17), however, it doesn’t always work this way.
Tune in on Thursday 7th September 2017 for a brand new UK winter forecast.
I have found out that an easterly QBO does lead to a higher chance of a colder than average winter in the UK.
On average, winter periods with an easterly QBO have a Central England Temperature 0.507′C less than that of a Westerly QBO winter, and 0.504′C less than a neutral QBO winter. Based on data available since 1949. Compiled by Kasim Awan. Credits for raw data: Hadley CET. NOAA QBO Index.
See the full update here.
New Winter outlook. Hello everyone. I have recently posted a new article on the upcoming winter season for the United Kingdom. This looks at the easterly QBO, global sea temperature oscillations and the current state of solar activity.
The next update will be published on the 1st of September and as well as an update on the drivers, I will also take a look at analogues and suggest a winter forecast.
The solar cycle is a main driver of our weather and has been “unfavorable” for cold & snowy winters admittedly for quite some time. Many say that we are at “low sunspot numbers” – which it true – but when looking back on records its just after solar minimum that the severe memorable winters occur.
For example 2009, 2010, 1987, 1976 and 1963 all occurred during the optimal “peak time” of the solar cycle which is still 2 years out of grasp admittedly.
In any case, the sea surface temperatures seem to be aligning nicely for a possible -NAO, last winter was a severe -AO and balmy +NAO. Although it seems impossible in this current climate, slight shifts would have allowed the most blocked pattern we have seen since 2013 (2016/17), to infiltrate cold in to the UK, instead of the south east Med.
Nevertheless, the situation is becoming fascinating with a negative QBO increasingly daily, which is the supposed (not tried and tested), driver of the polar vortex, a positive QBO = mild onslaught typically. So I expect a “real fight” this winter between the mild winds driven by the current Pacific pattern and arguably the Atlantic pattern to, vs the easterly QBO which will be well established by winter. This kind of pattern is a good one and has the potential to give some rather interesting snow events in the UK.
The word potential must be highlighted, because nothing is guaranteed in weather and changes in the Arctic pattern, sunspot numbers and stratosphere events could offset it all when conditions have been good for -NAO, which has been the case far too often for my liking in the past few winters.
In any case you can check out our full forecast for winter 2017/18 here, which is not definite of course, and if you are in the United States or Canada and want Winter 2017-2018 information here.
All in all, exciting times I must say because the winter countdown is on, and it wont be too long before the cold and widespread snow returns once again. – Kasimsweatherwatcher (23/07/17)
…The Latest UK Winter 2015/16 Forecast, is it really going to be a cold & snowy one? Is available. ..Welcome to Kasim Awan (Snow Obsessed Weather Forecasters)’s Home of UK Weather & Long Range Predictions, Weather & Solar Joy To Your Hearts Content! I Have Updated the Siberian Snow Cover Update Page. – To Include information for the coming 12 months. I have had a health scare hence the reduction in recent update – for your information I have also updated my United States winter outlook and the UK update is coming on the 12th of July. I also have some solar/ AP + little ice age information to be released :) Here are ALL THE LATEST Updates (17.06.15)
A LITTLE ICE AGE Could be on it’s way + more on Winter stuff. 2020-2050 talk : http://kasimsweatherwatcher.com/2020-snow-lovers-ice-age-uk/
Solar Activity – Alarming Flare & Radiation Recorded!! Will have Huge/Significant Impacts on Earth & Excellent Northern Lights Show During Tuesday + High Arctic Temps & Record High June Snow Cover Across Northern Areas: Click Here Read Solar Winter Update.
UK July & August And Autumn 2015 Sneak Peek, Look Away Warm Weather Lovers :) Click Here to Read. (18th June).
Cold Atlantic MultiDecadal Oscillation Could Spark New Era Of Severe UK Winters from 2020:
In The Making For Week Ending Sunday 21st June – UK July & August 2015 Weather Outlook’s, Any Sign Of Summer Ahead? Look Away if You Want Hot Weather! AND U.S. Winter 2015-2016 Preliminary NAO & ENSO. Also: Weather with Guest, we are Inviting a New & Uprising Guest of the Meteorology world to unleash an interview, this weekend.
To View: (09.06.15) *US Winter 2015-2016 ENSO Update + Seasonal Models*. Interesting early winter season outlook, viewing the Super El Nino & CFS models + much more information, some alarming signals.
To View: (07.06.15- Solar, ) *Could Solar Minimum,* Lowest since 1800′s, spark Severe UK Winters in coming years, very Interesting update again.
New & Interesting Early *Winter 2015-16 UK Update* – to Read this Update: View on El Nino, & QBO / Solar Activity & how it may influence our weather this winter. Thank you for reading.
Glastonbury 2015 Update will be on 20th June & U.S Winter 2015-2016 ENSO Blog/ Preliminary Outlook will be released on the 25th of June. Exciting times ahead.